Welcome to Foreign Policy Africa Overview.
Highlights of the year: Geopolitical competition arrives in the Sahel, as South Africa takes control of the G20 and Cameroon and Gabon prepare for questionable elections.
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What President Trump means for Africa’s disputed territories
During President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, the United States recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco to restore diplomatic relations with Israel. The ruling follows a 1975 ruling by the International Court of Justice that neither Morocco nor neighboring Mauritania have a legitimate historical claim to the territory, a former Spanish colony boasting rich fishing grounds and phosphate reserves in the Atlantic Ocean. violated the judgment. Morocco annexed much of Western Sahara in the late 1970s and has recently stepped up its military purchases from Israel.
Trump’s decision heightened tensions between Morocco and rival Algeria, which supports Western Sahara’s pro-independence Polisario Front. Outgoing US President Joe Biden has partially reversed President Trump’s decision to open an embassy in Western Sahara and instead opened a virtual consulate. However, the second Trump administration risks provoking an arms race between Algeria and Morocco. One important factor may be Europe’s position.
In October, the European Court of Justice ruled that the European Union had violated Western Sahara’s right to self-determination by signing a fishing agreement with Morocco that included products from the region. France and Spain have sided with Rabat, mainly because of their economic interests and investment plans in Western Sahara, as well as their dependence on Morocco to curb African migration to the EU.
Although Sahrawi independence activists in Western Sahara do not take a favorable position with the U.S. government, there has been much talk of President Trump potentially recognizing Somaliland, a breakaway region on the other side of the continent, which could lead to a move by a middle-power country. This could encourage emerging economies to expand their influence in Africa. Egypt and Eritrea will also be involved in the proxy war.
Last January, Ethiopia announced plans to build a port and naval base in Somaliland in exchange for becoming the first country to recognize the breakaway republic’s sovereignty. But after facing a backlash from Somalia, Ethiopia will now seek “access to the sea under the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” according to a joint declaration signed in December.
Eritrea fears that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may try to seize Eritrea’s ports by force. Meanwhile, a new bill introduced in December by Republican Rep. Scott Perry would halt U.S. aid and troops to Somalia amid speculation that President Trump might support recognition of Somaliland. Mogadishu hired US lobbying firm BGR Group as reports surfaced that this was a possibility.
Ethiopia and Somalia appeared to ease tensions last month as part of a deal brokered by Turkey. An Ethiopian delegation visited Mogadishu and issued a statement last week agreeing to “strengthen bilateral relations”.
Somalia itself has internal rifts, with Jubaland, another self-proclaimed breakaway region, severing ties with the federal government in November, and Puntland considering issuing its own currency on December 21st. announced. The broader regional repercussions could create new opportunities for the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt as they vie for regional influence and control of the Red Sea.
Egypt has announced that it will join the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia, which is expected to be renewed this month, at Mogadishu’s request. Mogadishu had previously refused to allow Ethiopian troops to take part in the fight against the al-Shabab militant group, but that stance softened after Turkish mediation. Ethiopia had sent about 3,000 soldiers to Somalia as part of its previous mission. An additional 7,000 Ethiopian troops are deployed to Somalia under a separate bilateral agreement.
Ethiopia has not yet said whether it has formally informed Somaliland officials of its abandonment of the controversial Somaliland agreement. This could give President Trump pause and potentially decide to avoid the issue altogether, especially given his close relationship with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who supports Somalia.
African elections a year ago
Sunday, January 12: Parliamentary elections will be held in the Comoros.
Thursday in June. 5th: Burundi holds parliamentary elections.
Tuesday, September 16: Malawi holds national elections.
Saturday, September 27: National elections will be held in Seychelles.
Sunday, October 5: Presidential elections are held in Cameroon.
New regional players in the Sahel region. Instability in the Sahel region is largely overshadowed by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. With Western counterterrorism operations removed, military rulers from Mali to Niger are learning that the Russian military alone cannot eradicate the deep-rooted problems that have given rise to terrorism in the region. In Mali, Russian troops suffered heavy losses in battles between Tuareg separatist rebels and al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM militants. Armed groups have spread across West Africa along the Gulf of Guinea to Ivory Coast and Ghana, and security is likely to deteriorate.
What happens in the Sahel will depend largely on the actions of the United States and China. A Chinese-backed oil pipeline from Niger to Benin was intended to finance Nigeria’s military junta, but was stalled after an armed attack last June, and Beijing’s diplomacy this year could determine the success or failure of Niger’s economy. There is sex.
Meanwhile, the new Trump administration’s possible disengagement with Africa, or worse, the intensification of policies designed to weaken Russia and China, will present opportunities for middle powers. In 2025, new partnerships with Turkey, Morocco and the Persian Gulf states are expected to be forged by Sahel putrists interested in securing control of their countries. Such deals are already happening, with Turkey reportedly increasing drone sales to Burkina Faso and Mali in recent years.
Lifelong leader of Cameroon. President Paul Biya has ruled Cameroon since 1982 and is the world’s oldest head of state. The 91-year-old is expected to seek an eighth term in the October vote, and is all but certain to win despite frequent allegations of election fraud.
Following Mr. Biya’s ostensibly landslide victory in Cameroon’s last presidential vote in 2018, the government invited bids to build a new residence for the country’s electoral judges. Biya’s legitimacy is guaranteed by the United States, primarily because, as Chris W.J. Roberts writes, “(l) By simply calling it “terrorism,” Cameroon is convincing many countries to continue selling it weapons, vehicles, and aircraft.” in Foreign Policy in 2023.
The biggest threat to Biya is the country’s ongoing Anglophone crisis. The crisis first erupted in 2017 and has since displaced more than 765,000 people, many in neighboring Nigeria. The conflict arose from secessionists seeking independence for Cameroon’s two marginalized English-speaking regions.
“Human rights groups have documented widespread human rights violations by Cameroonian security forces, many of which were carried out using equipment provided by the United States,” Cameroonian-American author Achille Tenkian wrote in the Nigerian outlet Republic. I wrote this. “Military and diplomatic support for Biya’s government has perpetuated a cycle of violence and repression with devastating consequences for the English-speaking people.” likely to lead to an increase in attacks.
African diplomacy on the world stage. There will be a concerted effort to increase Africa’s voice on the world stage in 2025, as South Africa holds the presidency of the newly expanded G20, which includes the African Union (AU). The AU is expected to elect a new chairman next month. The candidate is former Kenyan president Raila Odinga. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Djibouti; and Richard Landriamandrato, the former Madagascar foreign minister who was sacked.
The candidates hope to address Africa’s immense security challenges. But top of the list of concerns for both the African Union and South Africa is greater African representation on the world political stage, including securing two permanent seats for the continent on the UN Security Council. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said last month: “We are going to make a lot of noise and we hope that that loud noise will now be recognized in the form of countries joining the G20.”
Mr Ramaphosa intends to use Africa’s role as a source of the critical minerals that power the world as leverage to advocate for a fairer financial system on the continent itself. He also has the potential to use the enlarged BRICS group to emphasize African institutions, refocus attention on the Global South, and promote a multipolar order to the detriment of certain US interests (e.g. with respect to Israel). is high. Nigeria, Uganda and Algeria received formal invitations to join BRICS as “partner countries” last year.
Sudan’s proxy conflict. More than 30 million people ( More than half of these children are in need of assistance. Support Force (RSF). The US government on Tuesday accused the RSF and its proxies of committing genocide and imposed sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Act targeting seven companies in Hemeti and the United Arab Emirates.
A New York Times investigation accuses the UAE of supplying weapons to the RSF, which controls Darfur’s Jebel Amer gold mine and smuggles gold production through the UAE. But some critics argue the sanctions came too late. The conflict also involves various other countries, including Iran, Russia, and Ukraine. The RSF and the Sudanese army have recruited a variety of armed militias, many of which are motivated by ethnic tensions or economic interests, making it difficult to end the conflict.
Gabon’s sketchy elections. Gabon is scheduled to hold transitional elections in August. Interim President — General Bryce Origi Ngema, who ousted his cousin Ali Bongo in August 2023, will receive a new election that will allow him to participate in elections as a civilian while blocking other Bongo dynasty members from voting. drafted the constitution.
The new constitution abolishes the post of prime minister and concentrates power in the hands of the president. More importantly, Gabon is the last former French colony in West Africa to host French troops, and Paris is expected to ignore the country’s authoritarian orientation. Washington wants to avoid expanding China’s military presence in the Atlantic and is likely to turn a blind eye to election fraud.
