What better way to shake off the winter doldrums than with a visit to sunny Florida?
The UFC thus concludes the 2024 calendar year, with Miami native Colby Covington taking on Joaquin Buckley in Saturday’s main event at UFC Tampa. This came out of nowhere after Belal Muhammad had to miss UFC 310, and Buckley’s originally scheduled opponent Ian Machado-Galley was replaced opposite Shavkat Rakhmonov. Moving to the pay-per-view spot, a chain of events began with Covington slipping in. Suddenly, he was appointed as Garry’s successor.
This was a cunning move by “Chaos.” If he performs well against Buckley, against everyone’s expectations, he could be in the conversation for a fourth (!) shot at the undisputed welterweight title. The last time we saw Covington, he lost a listless decision to rival Leon Edwards, and since then he’s been blaming it on bad legs, altitude sickness, and a dog eating his homework. He then disappeared for 12 months. But the cunning veteran has chosen the right time to resurface not just because of favorable political circumstances.
Now that Buckley, a former middleweight who has won five straight fights, has dropped to 170 pounds, it will be Buckley’s time to shine. He’s doing a lot to restore his image in 2024 after the odd call and beef the year before, and an impressive performance against Covington could see him move to 4-0 this season. will be possible. But you know Covington is just waiting to trip Buckley at the goal line.
Other notable main card bouts include featherweight veterans Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo facing off in the co-main event, Manel Cape facing Bruno “Brindado” Silva and flyweight champion Alexandre They will compete in a match to determine Pantoja’s next challenger.
What: UFC Tampa
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
Date and time: Saturday, December 14th. The seven-game preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by the six-game main card at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
(The numbers in parentheses indicate the ranking in the mixed martial arts world rankings)
Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley (10)
It makes sense that his leg got messed up against Leon Edwards, especially when it comes from someone like Colby Covington, who is willing to say literally anything to stay relevant. . Don’t get me wrong, I think Edwards would have hurt him for five rounds anyway, but Covington wasn’t just average bad that night, he looked even worse.
Why bring this up? Because I still think he has enough power to win fights against opponents of certain ranks, and Joaquin Buckley might be one of them. . As for the work Buckley has done to establish himself as a legitimate title contender, he has yet to face a stylistic matchup like Covington. Buckley has solid offensive wrestling, but it’s his defensive side that I have questions about. Can he keep Covington going for five rounds?
Buckley isn’t as much of a tactician as Edwards, and he looks like he weighs 170 pounds, but he’s also not that difficult of a puzzle to solve. He can take down Buckley by applying pressure, which happens to be Covington’s strong suit. And if Covington can take him to the ground, Buckley’s flashy moves won’t be as explosive in the championship rounds.
As someone who has touted Buckley as a potential title challenger, even during his struggles at middleweight, it may seem strange that I would pick him to fail here, but this is Covington’s smartest choice. I think this is an example of good match selection. We could do this all over again and maybe Buckley would give Covington a blow, but I have a weird feeling that the situation is perfect for Covington to recover from the upset.
Pick: Covington
Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo
Maybe I’m leaning too much towards the older guys, but I also like Cub Swanson on Saturday night.
As with Covington, this looks like a good fit with the WEC original on paper. Billy Quarantillo will be a tough test for a guy who weighs 145 pounds and will get a lot of support from his fellow Floridians, but this will ultimately come down to striking and Swanson will be a tough test for a man weighing in at 145 pounds. That’s where he still has an advantage over the players. There’s no shame in being boxed up by Swanson, who can stand up and attack with all his might, even after recently celebrating his 41st birthday.
If Quarantillo follows through with this, he will have even more authority, but he probably wants to put on an entertaining show for the Tampa crowd, and that’s something he’ll do in a full-on showdown with “Killer Cub.” It means to do. Swanson is no stranger to the Fight of the Night award, and there’s no doubt he and Quarantillo will compete for the award once again on Saturday, with Swanson also taking home the winner’s check.
Pick: Swanson
Manel Cape (11) vs. Bruno Silva
I don’t understand Manel Cape at all.
What is the charm here? Sure he talks about the big game. He has some great knockouts on his resume, but also some pretty bad ones. He always falls short of his high-level competitors (except for Kai Asakura, and that was 5 years ago!). At best, he’s the Michael Page of flyweights, and that might be an insult to Venom.
OK, that was tough. Especially considering that Kape’s smooth hitting style makes him not only the favorite to fight Bruno Silva, but also an interesting opponent against Pantoja (on paper, it looks like everyone has a chance against Pantoja) But that’s one of the reasons why he can win) (He’s a very attractive champion). Will this be the night Cape finally gives birth?
no. People had been sleeping on Silva for a while, even though he had four consecutive finishes and four consecutive Performance of the Night bonuses. We often hear about people looking for flyweights with consistent stopping power, but there are always guys in front of us. I’m just as baffled by the disdain for Silva as I am by the hype surrounding Cape.
I’m doubling down here so you may well take my word for it, but my gut feeling is that the true contender at flyweight is Silva and he capes in the 2nd or 3rd round. Submit.
Pick: Silva
Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby
Now we have proper matchmaking for Vitor Petrino. I understand why the Anthony Smith fight happened, and frankly Petrino just pooped out of bed when it was supposed to be his rank-up moment, but if we were still at 205 lbs. If you’re gauging where he stands as a potential candidate and you’re drafting him for a fun matchup, Dustin Jacoby is the right choice.
It pains me to say that the Jacoby spoiler era may be over. Jacoby’s MMA and kickboxing experience is a legitimate asset to him in his second attempt at the UFC, and even if he loses the fight, his opponent will feel truly tested. His kickboxing is among the best in mixed martial arts, but you can imagine a scenario where Petrino doesn’t understand him and ends up getting the wrong call.
Petrino is very athletic, and he said the same thing against Smith, but he can’t let Jacoby set the pace or dominate in close games. I believe in Petrino as a player in this division, so if he underperforms here, I would have serious doubts about his future.
Pick: Petrino
Adrian Yanez vs Daniel Marcos
What a fascinating batting battle is taking place here.
To give you an example of how there are no easy fights in the bantamweight division, Adrian Yanez and Daniel Markos are two unranked fighters, but just about anyone in the top 15 could be in the fight if you put in the money. Yanez has shown time and time again that he is an elite boxer, and Marcos has given the impression that he is off to a perfect start to his 17-fight career. There’s a disaster going on in this department, dude.
I like Yanez only because, while Marcos’ distance control and timing are outstanding, I expect him to be able to ramp up the volume if the fight requires. At the same time, Marcos waiting too long for the right moment allows Yanez to establish a rhythm, and when Yanez is locked in, he’s incredibly effective (and fun to watch!).
While it’s tempting to imagine Marcos maintaining his undefeated record and becoming a dark horse candidate in 2025, I still don’t think he’ll pass Yanez on the candidate line. Yanez won a hard-fought decision, but Marcos will have much to learn as he carves out a promising future.
Pick: Yanez
Navajo Starling vs. Tuco Toccos
There are two unknown properties here, Navajo Sterling is 5-0 and fresh off the Contender Series, and Tuco Toccos has a little more experience, albeit some questionable competition. Truth be told, this is the kind of low-level light heavyweight matchup that the UFC has set up for the sole purpose of starting the main card with a bang.
Sterling should get a big finish here. He’s green, but he moves well and passes the eye test you’d expect from a fighter looking to establish himself as a knockout artist. He uses his reach well, isn’t afraid to mix up his grappling skills, and has one-shot KO potential. Sometimes I wish he would do more, but his methodical style has worked well so far.
It is also effective against Tokkos, who like to come forward and impose attacks. It’s going to be difficult because Sterling will spend more time sniping at him, and Tokkos will eventually take a wrong step and fall down with a power punch.
Pick: Sterling
Qualifying
Michael Johnson def.Ottman Azaitar
Drucker Klose def. Joel Alvarez
Sean Woodson def. Fernando Padilla
Miles Johns def. Felipe Lima
Miranda Maverick def.Jamie Lynn Horse
Davey Grant def. Ramon Taveras
Josephine Knutson def. Piera Rodriguez
