Qualcomm needs competition in Windows on Arm space

Five years ago, if you wanted a Windows on Arm laptop, you faced two big problems. First, software support for Windows on Arm was abysmal, with relatively few companies porting their x86/x64 programs to the Arm architecture. On the other hand, transitioning from an x64 version of Windows to an Arm version was difficult for most people, as x64 emulation didn’t exist and even x86 emulation seemed questionable at times. The second big problem is that there are too few hardware options. At the end of 2019, there were only two new Windows on Arm laptops to choose from. ah.

Today the situation is very different. Windows on Arm is thriving, in no small part due to Apple paving the way for Arm by launching its first M-series chips in 2020. Today, more companies than ever are porting their software to Arm. Additionally, Microsoft has done a great job of making Prism (its x86/x64 emulation layer) work incredibly seamlessly within Windows. What’s even more impressive is that more than 50 Windows on Arm laptops have been released this year alone. fifty! That’s far from 2.

Unfortunately, there is still one major problem with the current state of Windows on Arm. The thing is, no matter what you buy, it’s equipped with a Qualcomm processor. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but you can’t wait until that restriction goes away.

At CES in January of this year, I was able to get an off-the-record sneak peek at a Qualcomm-branded test laptop with an early version of the Snapdragon X Elite chip. Although I didn’t have much time to spend with it, my first impressions of the new processor (and the state of Windows on Arm) were pretty neutral. Yes, the laptop seemed to be working fine, but Windows on Arm was a huge mess for a long time. How can you believe Qualcomm when it says things will be different this time?

Well, I was wrong to be so pessimistic. After all, when it comes to the Snapdragon X series, Qualcomm has completely kicked them out. In particular, the X Elite is powerful, battery-efficient, and can perform AI tricks that were unimaginable five years ago. The cheaper Snapdragon X Plus, on the other hand, is no slouch either, bringing a toned-down (but still refined) experience to a sub-$1,000 laptop.

But Qualcomm’s real feat was getting nearly every major laptop brand on board from day one. This was undoubtedly helped by a very close partnership with Microsoft and Microsoft’s commitment to bring Windows on Arm to the standards consumers need to justify the investment. Still, it’s great to see the entire industry coming together to drive this new strategy.

Putting all this together, 2024 is the first year I’ve told anyone to think realistically about buying a Windows on Arm laptop. Qualcomm deserves much of the credit for this feat (even if Windows on Arm’s previous misery was their fault, that’s another story).

Unfortunately, it’s scary that Qualcomm has so much power over the future of not just Windows on Arm, but Windows laptops in general. No matter how great a job it did this year, the years before that saw Windows on Arm basically stall, proving that Windows on Arm needs competition. Thankfully, that could be a reality in 2025.

Under normal circumstances, Qualcomm would rely on Intel to provide the competition it needs here. However, Intel is currently in a truly unfortunate situation, with its entire future in serious jeopardy. In fact, there are real rumors that Qualcomm may acquire Intel. In other words, there is no competition.

AMD is also currently making great strides in the x64 laptop space. But the last time we heard anything substantial about AMD’s efforts in the Arm laptop world was in 2023. At this point, we believe AMD is still working on Arm processors, but no one knows when that will happen.

Regardless of what’s going on behind the scenes at other companies, Qualcomm has an exclusive deal with Microsoft that gives it control over the Windows on Arm space for the time being. This is not surprising. Qualcomm is probably spending billions of dollars on this Snapdragon X campaign, and they can’t do it without some perks and privileges.

It is unclear how long this exclusive contract will last, but rumors are circulating that it will end in 2025. At that point, any company that wanted to make Arm-based chips for Windows laptops could do so. What’s really exciting is that we’re already hearing rumors about celebrities joining in on the fun.

Most notably, MediaTek is rumored to be developing chips for Windows laptops. Early rumors suggested that an announcement could be made at Computex 2024, but that didn’t happen. We might see something at CES 2025 in January. In any case, the most interesting thing here is that MediaTek is said to have partnered with NVIDIA on this product. If this is true, this chipset could be exactly what Windows on Arm needs.

The Snapdragon X series is great, but the onboard GPU still leaves a lot to be desired. If MediaTek brings the processing power and NVIDIA brings the graphics and AI capabilities, the resulting chipset could be a beast. MediaTek is also known to significantly undercut Qualcomm in terms of cost, meaning this MTK/NVIDIA chipset could end up in lower priced laptops than we’ve seen so far from Qualcomm. There is.

Obviously, with MediaTek, AMD, and NVIDIA bringing this heat, Qualcomm will be pushed to match it. Thus competition begins, and the consumer wins either way. It’s going to be a very exciting time to buy a Windows on Arm laptop.

I recently tested two versions of the same laptop. One runs Snapdragon X Elite and the other runs Intel Core Ultra 7 (i.e. Lunar Lake). You can read about my Snapdragon vs. Lunar Lake match at the link, but I’ll spoil the ending for you. In the end, I sided with Lunar Lake.

However, the only reason I chose Lunar Lake over Snapdragon is because of the software support. If you’re buying a laptop for use today and need to be sure it will work with programs from a variety of ecosystems, Lunar Lake is a sure bet, but Snapdragon is a wildcard. As I type this, Google Drive for Desktop is still in beta on Windows on Arm, and popular Adobe products like After Effects and Audition don’t work on Arm at all. Oh yeah, major games like Fortnite and Apex Legends won’t run on Snapdragon either.

These are very notable limitations, but they are probably temporary. Now that the entire laptop industry is on board with Windows on Arm, it’s only a matter of time before the remaining popular unsupported programs are ported. It will take a long time for everything to work out, but progress is happening. Further down the line, we’ll see Arm laptops with discrete GPUs, making the idea of ​​Windows on Arm gaming laptops a reality. Again, all this won’t happen tomorrow, but it is happening.

So I ended up choosing to stick with x64, but assumed I’d end up choosing Arm in 2025. We could see a ton of new and interesting Windows next year as MediaTek, AMD, and NVIDIA (hopefully) bring some competition. Arm your laptop and try it out. Who knows, but we might finally have a true MacBook killer. This means a Windows laptop with top-notch performance, all-day battery life, and zero processing degradation when running on battery compared to when plugged in. Once that happens, I’ll happily kiss my x64 laptop goodbye. Conversely, if competition in the Windows on Arm space ultimately forces AMD and Intel to develop x64 laptop processors capable of powering MacBook killers, I’ll follow suit. I’m fine with anything as long as the Windows laptop industry stops resting on its laurels.

This is something the Windows laptop industry has needed for years. I am very grateful to Qualcomm for making this possible. However, Qualcomm cannot be solely responsible. Qualcomm has been leading the way for seven years, but we’ve only begun to make significant progress in recent months. For Windows on Arm to really take off, there needs to be competition, and consumers need to take responsibility. Assuming competition comes to Qualcomm in 2025, I predict that the future of Windows laptops will indeed be very bright. And most importantly, that future is fully integrated into Arm.