Confirming the adage that the winner takes all, Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the 2024 US presidential election has changed perceptions of him around the world. There are numerous references to him being the most influential American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt and defining a new political era for America and the world. Similar hyperbolic statements to the effect that “the world is at Trump’s feet” have also been made in the wake of his recent victory.
President-elect Trump is full of mysteries, and there is a possibility that mysteries will remain even after he takes office. It remains to be seen whether he fits the description of an iconoclast, but he is known for challenging “cherished beliefs and respected institutions on the grounds that they are false or harmful.” are. With control of both the House and the Senate, the president-elect’s momentum seems unstoppable.
With few constraints remaining, there has been speculation about what he might do, including striking a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine and pushing Iran to reduce temperatures in West Asia. It also includes whether ways and means can be found to impose even greater burdens on to restrain Israel.
What is the outlook for foreign policy?
It seems almost certain that Trump’s foreign policy priorities will be Europe, West Asia, and China. Mr. Trump has openly criticized the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and even criticized Europe’s disdainful attitude toward defense issues, which suggests that he is prepared to sacrifice Ukraine to ensure peace in Europe. It doesn’t mean that there is. His approach is unlikely to be transactional in nature, and therefore it seems very unlikely that he will abandon Ukraine to secure peace in Europe. But while Trump will expect Europe to contribute even more to its own defense, Ukraine is implicitly betting on Ukraine to avoid escalating into a conflict that has the character of World War III. It is once again unlikely to push gold higher.
Despite speculation to the contrary, the next president’s approach to the West Asia crisis is likely to be even more cautious. Both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have tried to court Mr. Trump, but Mr. Trump is unlikely to go along with such a gambit. Anyone familiar with Trump’s thinking and family business dealings will know what his priorities are and where they lie. It is still a matter of speculation on what specific terms Mr. Trump would agree to a survival law in West Asia, but it seems highly unlikely that the conflict would prolong on Israel’s terms.
There is more certainty about what Mr. Trump’s approach and attitude toward China will be. At the top of Trump’s list of “enemies” is China, followed by North Korea and Iran, followed by Russia. As president, Trump is certain to increase his focus on economic and trade issues related to China, including tightening export controls and raising tariffs on Chinese exports to unprecedented levels. However, he is likely to avoid rash action, conscious of the fact that the People’s Liberation Army has been steadily preparing to confront the United States for some time and cannot be easily discounted. The United States also knows that China has the world’s largest arsenal of hypersonic weapons, known to possess missiles that can fly and maneuver at more than five times the speed of sound. China may be Trump’s biggest enemy, but that is no reason to think he will resort to rash action, which could well lead to an even bigger conflagration.
Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint. Nevertheless, like a sumo wrestler, Trump’s United States and President Xi Jinping’s China are likely to test reality before embarking on unstoppable conflicts in Taiwan, the Pacific region, or East Asia. The United States’ existing alliances with Asian and Australian countries are certain to be strengthened, and already established relationships with Australia, Japan, and South Korea will be further strengthened. However, as president, Mr. Trump is unlikely to act as a guarantor of peace across the region, which would likely be paid for by the U.S. Treasury. Despite the impatience he is currently displaying, there will be certain limits to his actions as president.
Partnership with New Delhi
There is good reason to believe that Mr. Trump is inclined to view India more favorably than other countries among the world’s more important countries. There are several reasons for this. The personalities of Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are dissimilar in many ways. Both exhibit a “no-nonsense” approach to issues and issues and seem to view them through a common prism. Both men are strong leaders who will not under any circumstances allow their political aides or others to alter or change the trajectory of their beliefs. Their dislike of China is visceral, and after the Galwan incident in June 2020 (an incident in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed), Indian citizens supported India, with Trump, then the US president. I’ll never forget what it looked like.
The culmination of the relationship between then-President Trump and Modi was the ‘Namaste Trump’ event in Ahmedabad (February 2020). The event, which attracted more than 100,000 people, was probably the largest gathering of foreign leaders ever to visit India. On the occasion, Mr. Modi praised Mr. Trump as a “true friend of India” and a leader who will reshape geopolitics.
During Mr. Trump’s last term in office, he and Mr. Modi appeared to reach a common understanding on issues and concerns affecting the Asia-Pacific region. Little has changed since then. Rather, the emphasis on cooperation between the two countries in defense, trade, and counter-terrorism will only increase. During his last visit to India as president, Trump specifically mentioned the $3 billion military agreement between the two countries.
As president-elect, Trump will certainly be happy to sign a $1.17 billion contract for MH-60R helicopter equipment as one of his first actions. They are also pleased that India has strengthened its ties with the Quad (consisting of Australia, Japan, the United States, and India), which is considered an anti-China alliance, even if India itself does not share the view that it is an anti-China alliance. Dew. Security Alliance.
Mr. Trump also appealed to many Indians and the Indian establishment by raising a common cause with India over the plight of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority, who face tremendous hostility from Islamic sectarian groups in Bangladesh. He is admired. Forced former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country. This further helped build a cordial and friendly atmosphere that kept both countries in good standing.
The role of technology
Economically, India enjoys a slight balance of payments advantage, but this is insignificant compared to the situation that exists between China and the United States today. In the case of the US-India relationship, technology will certainly strengthen rather than strengthen the relationship. divisive factor. Quite the contrary to China’s case, Silicon Valley, with its sizable corps of Indian high-tech entrepreneurs, could serve as a vanguard for strengthening ties. If innovation and dynamism are expected to be the hallmarks of the new Trump administration, led by Elon Musk and others, the U.S.-India technology relationship is poised to approach a takeoff point. India-US relations will likely follow suit.
MK Narayanan is a former intelligence chief, former national security adviser and former governor of West Bengal.
issued – December 10, 2024 12:16 AM IST
