Our predictions for next week’s nominations

Ahead of next week’s announcement, BBC Culture’s film critics forecast the likely contenders – from a musical about a trans crime boss to an architectural epic with Adrien Brody.

Nicholas Barber: Who would have thought it? Even though the writers’ and actors’ strikes brought Hollywood to a standstill for much of 2023, this has turned out to be a vintage year for best picture contenders. The current favourite is The Brutalist, Brady Corbet’s intensely intelligent chronicle of an immigrant architect grappling with the ways of the US in the mid-20th Century. Conclave must be in the running, too: this Vatican-set thriller balances serious themes with gripping entertainment in miraculous fashion. Emilia Pérez has also become an awards season smash, which is not bad going for a multilingual musical about the lawyer of a trans crime boss. And the scale and spectacle (and box-office hauls) of Wicked and Dune: Part Two should put both of them in contention. If the Academy fills all 10 of the potential slots in this category, that leaves room for Anora, the Palme d’Or winner at the Cannes Film Festival; The Substance, one of the year’s most talked-about films; Nickel Boys, which reinvents the period drama; and A Complete Unknown, because biopics always go down well. The final slot could go to one of my two favourite films of the year: Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, and Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine as Light, which would surely have been nominated in the best international feature film category if India’s Film Federation hadn’t put forward a different film instead.

Caryn James: The frontrunners for the big award have been in place for months, and they are a delightfully varied lot. There’s the ambitious epic The Brutalist, the bonkers transgender musical Emilia Pérez, the affecting comic take on a sex worker Anora and the compelling thriller Conclave. The rest is just filler now that there are up to 10 films in this category. Wicked will get in and do what the expanded number of nominations was meant to do: give some recognition to popular box office hits. I’m crossing fingers for Jesse Eisenberg’s sensitive, funny A Real Pain, whose nomination should follow the pattern of Past Lives last year – that is, give a boost to a fresh indie film and film-maker. And I’m guessing that A Complete Unknown will sneak in to fill the inevitable biopic slot, and maybe The Substance on the strength of Demi Moore’s attention-getting performance and the film’s audacity. Unlike last year’s juggernaut Oppenheimer, the range of films this time makes the best picture race more volatile and engaging than usual.

Caryn James: The best picture frontrunners will also get nominations for their directors, not because those categories always match up (they don’t) but because these film-makers are so inventive and authoritative: Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, Sean Baker for Anora, Edward Berger for Conclave and Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, who would all be first-time nominees in the category. That leaves only one slot for the rest. The Directors Guild nominated those four plus the veteran James Mangold for A Complete Unknown, but I think Oscar voters might surprise with something less knee-jerk and a newer name, possibly Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, which speaks so directly to Hollywood’s obsession with looks. A nomination for her would also spare them the embarrassment of an all-male lineup. They will still have an #Oscarssowhite problem, and RaMell Ross should be included for his visionary Nickel Boys, but unfortunately the film hasn’t made much of an awards ripple outside critics’ groups. 

Nicholas Barber: Last year, Christopher Nolan was way ahead of the pack in the race for the best director Oscar. This year, there’s no frontrunner just yet. But Brady Corbet constructed a monumental international drama for less than $10m (£8.2m), so he should be nominated for The Brutalist. Jacques Audiard manages to cover all sorts of genres, tones and locations in Emilia Pérez. Jon M Chu may well be honoured for a different type of musical, the bright and shiny Wicked. And Sean Baker deserves a nomination for choreographing the chaos in Anora, a film that is wildly farcical yet always believable. But it would be a shame if we ended up with an all-male shortlist, so let’s hope Coralie Fargeat is recognised for overseeing the dayglo style, red-hot performances and jaw-dropping finale of The Substance.

Caryn James: Adrien Brody has a lock on a nomination and has vaulted to the top of the list after his Golden Globe win and Screen Actors Guild nomination for his role as an immigrant Holocaust survivor in The Brutalist. His competition is likely to include Timothée Chalamet, who transforms himself into a vivid version of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, and Ralph Fiennes, whose powerfully subtle performance as a cardinal doubting his faith in the Catholic Church anchors Conclave. Daniel Craig is also likely to make it in for his image-shattering performance in Queer as a gay American writer based on William S Burroughs. SAG, a large group whose members often overlap with Oscar voters, nominated those four and Colman Domingo for Sing Sing. As good as Domingo is, that film is such a small release that I’ve always doubted its Oscar chances, so there could be a surprise, but for now he’s the likeliest choice for that last spot.

Nicholas Barber: Adrien Brody is at the top of the best actor list. He won an Oscar for playing an Eastern European Jewish composer in The Pianist in 2003, and in The Brutalist he is playing the same sort of character (but now an architect), yet he is even better this time around. No other actor this year puts so much into a role – and no other actor had to learn to speak Hungarian in the process. Mind you, Timothée Chalamet learnt to play an album’s worth of Bob Dylan songs for A Complete Unknown, and his Dylan impersonation is uncanny, which is just the sort of thing that Oscar voters love. Ralph Fiennes glows with sheer expertise in Conclave, and Sebastian Stan could nab a nomination for his limber performance either in The Apprentice or A Different Man (for which he won a Golden Globe). Colman Domingo is so sympathetic in Sing Sing that he deserves the fifth place on the best actor list. But if the Academy weren’t so snobby about horror films, then surely Hugh Grant’s nerdily jovial take on psychotic malice in Heretic would get a nod.

Nicholas Barber: My personal favourite for the best actress Oscar is Mikey Madison, a whirlwind of energy in Anora. More or less unknown before she starred in Sean Baker’s riotous comedy drama, she created an indelibly vivid character – and she is barely off the screen from start to finish. But it’s such a strong year for female lead performances that Madison’s nomination isn’t guaranteed. Having won a Golden Globe for playing the indefatigable matriarch in Walter Salles’s piercingly political Brazilian drama, I’m Still Here, Fernanda Torres is now in the frame for an Oscar. Demi Moore, too, won a Golden Globe for The Substance, and her comeback story may be irresistible to the Academy. On a similar note, there’s a chance that Pamela Anderson will be nominated for her comeback role in The Last Showgirl, having picked up nods at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild awards. Who does that leave? My money would be on Cynthia Erivo or Nicole Kidman, who played powerful yet vulnerable women in Wicked and Babygirl, respectively.

Caryn James: I’m not saying she’ll win, but Demi Moore is more likely than ever to get nominated for The Substance, after her win and Oscar-ready acceptance speech at the Golden Globes, back-to-back with a SAG nomination. The other sure things are Mikey Madison for her breakthrough role in Anora, Karla Sofia Gascón, who would be the first transgender nominee in the category, for Emilia Pérez, and probably Cynthia Erivo for turning green and belting out songs in Wicked. The last slot is up for grabs and may well go to Nicole Kidman for Babygirl, if only because Oscar voters seem to love her. Fernanda Torres is stirring in I’m Still Here and Marianne Jean-Baptiste uncompromising in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, and both should be nominated instead of Erivo and Kidman, but that’s not likely. And while it would be great to see Pamela Anderson sneak into the category for The Last Showgirl, as she did with a SAG nomination, that vote of confidence probably came too late to give her the momentum she would have needed.

Nicholas Barber: This seems like an appropriate moment for my annual moan about actors being shoved into categories where they don’t belong. Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin are co-leads in A Real Pain, and if they happened to be of different genders from each other, they’d both be deemed “leading” actors. But the powers-that-be have decided that Culkin is the film’s supporting actor, and he’s sure to be nominated for his fizzing, Golden Globe-winning performance. Edward Norton radiates maturity and gentleness as Bob Dylan’s mentor, Pete Seeger, in A Complete Unknown. And Yura Borisov, as a good-hearted Russian enforcer, brings new layers of humanity to the second half of Anora. The perpetually underrated Guy Pearce is nuanced and commanding in The Brutalist, and it’s about time he was Oscar-nominated. Finally, Denzel Washington should be included for his fabulously cool presence in Gladiator II. It’s hard to recall a time when a supporting actor stole the film so completely from the supposed star.

Caryn James: It will be a shock if Kieran Culkin doesn’t win the Oscar for his role as Jesse Eisenberg’s funny, troubled, chaotic cousin in A Real Pain. He has already received a Globe, a SAG nomination and a slew of awards from critics’ groups, and has given a self-deprecating, entertaining acceptance speech every time. The other nominees will just be there to fill out the category, but they give strong performances nonetheless, including Edward Norton, who channels Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown, Yura Borisov as a soft-hearted gangster in Anora, and Guy Pearce as a hard-hearted tycoon in The Brutalist. The fifth slot is hard to call, but my guess is that Jeremy Strong will get it for his multifaceted performance in The Apprentice as Roy Cohn, who taught the dark arts of politics and media manipulation to the young Donald Trump.

Caryn James: Zoe Saldaña is the frontrunner to win for her dynamic performance as the lawyer who helps Emilia Pérez, and Selena Gomez may well make it into the category as Emilia’s duped ex-wife. Ariana Grande is very likely to be nominated for her smooth performance as Galinda in Wicked, a role that only seems easy to play (a lesser actress might have made Galinda unlikable) and so is Isabella Rossellini, who delivers one great speech and has her eyes open all the time as Sister Agnes in Conclave. For the fifth slot, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, and Monica Barbaro, who is vibrant and convincing as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown, are in the mix. But I’d give the edge to Jamie Lee Curtis, a recent winner in this category, who deserves another nomination for her heart-rending performance as a defiantly confident, aging cocktail waitress in The Last Showgirl, and whose SAG nomination is a good omen.

Nicholas Barber: I’d love to see Monica Barbaro being nominated for her role in A Complete Unknown. To hear Timothée Chalamet sing like Bob Dylan is impressive, but to hear Barbaro singing with the operatic vibrato of Joan Baez is something else. In fact, singing is a theme that runs through this category. The multi-talented Zoe Saldaña will be nominated for Emilia Pérez – even though she’s really the film’s lead actress. Ariana Grande shows off her stratospheric vocals in Wicked, but proves to be a sparkling comedian, too. (But again – isn’t she the co-lead rather than one of the supporting cast?) Moving on from singers, Felicity Jones delivers a searing performance as the architect’s wife in The Brutalist, and Margaret Qualley glitters with star quality as well as sly wit as the troublesome clone in The Substance.

Nicholas Barber: Four films have such dazzling original screenplays that it would be disappointing if any of them were left off the shortlist: Sean Baker’s Anora script bursts with vibrant characters and unforgettable scenes; Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s The Brutalist has astonishing breadth of research, depth of character and height of ambition; Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance has fun with its outrageous concept; and Jesse Eisenberg’s sublime A Real Pain doesn’t waste a word: every scene is either hilarious, profoundly affecting, or both. It’s not so easy to predict which film will fill the fifth slot, but it would be gratifying if the delicacy, grace and warmth of Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine as Light were celebrated here.

Caryn James: This year’s nominees in the category could be a masterclass in great, inventive screenwriting. Jesse Eisenberg’s deft A Real Pain, Sean Baker’s bold Anora and Coralie Fargeat’s out-there The Substance should all be included. Those films are all perfectly balanced as they go from comedy or satire to drama. (It’s no accident that these writers are also the films’ directors.) Director Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s screenplay for The Brutalist is also sure to make the list. As for the hard-to-predict fifth slot, it would be great to see Mike Leigh’s bracing Hard Truths make the cut. And writer-director Payal Kapadia’s delicate All We Imagine as Light wasn’t submitted by India in the international film category, but has a chance of making up for the omission here.

Nicholas Barber: There is no shortage of contenders for the best adapted screenplay Oscar, ranging from fairly straight adaptations to scripts that take only a couple of threads from their source material, and then weave them into magnificent tapestries. Peter Straughan’s Conclave screenplay turns Robert Harris’s novel into a streamlined cinematic experience. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’s Nickel Boys script is faithful to Colson Whitehead’s novel, but also conjures up something magically distinctive. Emilia Pérez is inspired by Boris Razon’s novel, but flies off in its own direction. Sing Sing skilfully opens out a magazine article into an authentic character-based drama. And A Complete Unknown’s James Mangold and Jay Cocks use Elijah Wald’s book Dylan Goes Electric! as a starting point for an affectionate homage to Bob Dylan’s early career.

Caryn James: Peter Straughan’s taut adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel Conclave is favoured to win the Oscar, and should be joined on the list by Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez. This category might be the one place where Nickel Boys has a chance at a nomination, as RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes made Colson Whitehead’s very literary novel cinematic. And since the list of other possibilities is so thin, it’s likely to be filled out by two screenplays with no chance of winning, including Jay Cocks and James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown (officially based on the book Dylan Goes Electric! but really from Dylan’s life). In this relatively weak year for adaptations it’s even plausible that Dana Fox and Winnie Holzman’s Wicked could get a nod. No one seems to like the fact that the Broadway musical was split into two films, but the first part has been such a hit that it might scatter some awards fairy dust on its writers. 

The 2025 Oscar nominations announcement takes place on Thursday 23 January.