Russia’s future in Syria may be debatable, but analysts broadly agree that the loss of Syria means little to Russia in a material sense.
But it is widely known that the Kremlin wants to maintain the strategic foothold it has developed over the past decade across the Mediterranean and Africa.
During the Syrian war, Russia provided vital military and diplomatic support to Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Along the way, it established an important airfield at Hmeimim and significantly expanded the Soviet-era naval base at Tartus, Russia’s only warm-water port.
With Syria in the hands of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led regime, the future of these bases is uncertain, and Russia has reportedly already partially withdrawn its troops.
The loss of the base, a key link in the chain of influence from Moscow to the Mediterranean to Africa, will be damaging and leave Russia in need of alternatives.
Libya, where Russia already has a presence, is seen as the only realistic alternative if Russia decides to withdraw all or some of its troops from Syria.
But it remains to be seen what the sudden increase in Russian military strength will mean for unstable Libya, and what the increased Russian presence so close to NATO borders will mean.
What if I give up and go home?
Expanding Russia’s presence in Africa through its positions in Syria and Libya has been a goal of Kremlin planners since around 2017, a goal that “Russia has been fighting for” and that it is not ready to give up. said Oleg Ignatov, a senior international crisis analyst. group.
“Russia sees Africa as one of the main competitive arenas among current great powers,” Ignatov said.
Russia maintains a military presence in much of Africa, primarily through the Kremlin-controlled military contractor Afrika Korps (formerly known as Wagner Group).
The African Corps currently supports the governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, all of which have severed ties with the West after recent coups.
Additionally, the Afrika Korps reportedly proved ruthless but vital in maintaining control of the Central African Republic government and supporting Sudanese military allies after Russia defected in the civil war this year. are.
“While it is true that the influence of Western countries on the continent is decreasing, the presence of other countries such as China and Turkey is increasing,” Ignatov said.
Therefore, it was imperative for Kremlin planners to maintain at least one position in Libya or Syria, Ignatov told Al Jazeera.
“Libya offers something unique to Russia, with a foothold in both North Africa and the Mediterranean, and access to soft areas in Europe and across the Sahel,” said Anas El Gomati of the Tripoli-based Sadeq Institute. It’s perfect for projecting power.”
However, there is little evidence that eastern Libya is preparing for the influx.
Satellite images examined by Al Jazeera’s Sanad verification agency do not show new construction at any of Russia’s Libyan airfields or development of the Tobruk port. Questions arose in Tartus, where the port of Tobruk is an additional warm-water port, which Russia is reportedly considering including in its military framework long before the country’s future.
“Don’t underestimate Tobruk’s potential. It’s not Tartus yet, but that’s exactly why Russia wants it. They’re not looking for what’s there right now. We are looking at what we can build,” El Gomati said.
“Remember, Tartus was not always what it is today. Moreover, Tobruk, home to al-Khadim Air Base (an important Russian military base near Benghazi), is a strong military base capable of challenging NATO’s southern flank. forming a complex.”
internal turmoil
Libya is embroiled in its own power struggle, one that could change forever if Russian troops are redeployed from Syria to North Africa.
Libya has experienced little stability since the 2011 revolution. Libya is run by two governments, both of which critics have accused of unfairness, but neither intends to give up until national elections are held.
The last proposed election was rejected on December 11, 2021.
In the east is the Government of National Stability (GNS), backed by its self-proclaimed leader, rebel commander Khalifa Haftar. In the West, there is the internationally recognized Government of National Accord, led by embattled Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who was appointed on an interim basis in 2021 and has remained in power ever since. There is.
A standoff between the two countries in September over central bank independence finally came to an end through lengthy negotiations overseen by United Nations mediators.
Buoyed by the success of its mediation and the holding of local elections in November, the United Nations last week announced new negotiations aimed at holding the first national vote since the failed 2021 one.
Stephanie Cooley, the UN special envoy to Libya, told the Security Council that the proposal would help the country “overcome the current political impasse and move towards national elections and the renewal of Libya’s lapsed institutional legitimacy.” Said it was helpful.
But analysts such as Tarek Meghelisi of the European Council on Foreign Relations say the establishment of a major Russian military base in eastern Libya could give Haftar’s ally Haftar a greater say in negotiations. Mr. Haftar would be able to withdraw without any cost.
“If Russia withdraws completely to the East, Mr. Haftar will be able to do almost anything he wants,” Meghelisi said, adding that Western countries would then be able to do whatever they wanted in hopes of pulling Mr. Haftar away from Russia. He explained how he would try to appease Mr. Haftar.
The negotiations proposed by the United Nations “are not negotiations,” he added.
“Mr. Haftar…could decide on the terms, until he appoints a new prime minister, which will inevitably stand until he falls out with Mr. Haftar. And then what?
“There are more bullets,” he concluded.
geopolitical maneuvering
Haftar remains a target of Western diplomatic outreach despite potentially offering Russia, the West’s geopolitical adversary, a safe haven just a few hundred nautical miles from NATO’s shores. continues to be.
“The NATO threat is not exaggerated. It is modest,” El Gomati said.
“This is not just about military bases. It’s about Russia creating pressure points on European migration routes, energy supplies and trade corridors. Libya’s position provides the perfect basis for a hybrid war.” he said.
Analysts say that despite the eastern government’s established partnership with Putin, a number of Western officials are meeting with Haftar in a bid to “restore” his reputation in the West. .
In August, the commanders of U.S. Africa Command, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Italy each arraigned Mr. Haftar separately, with the visit aimed at encouraging dialogue but often aimed at stemming the tide of war. He explained that the purpose was to seek Haftar’s cooperation. Both Haftar and his Russian allies have been accused of using weapons against Europe.
“The need for Western countries to rebuild Haftar makes little sense,” Megherisi said.
“He is basically a proxy for Russia, at least since 2020, when Russia entered the Libyan civil war on behalf of Haftar.
“Since then, his original army has largely been disbanded and replaced by the SS, led by his own children. He became greatly distracted by domestic difficulties and made various efforts to maintain his rule. It relies on criminal organizations,” Megerisi said.
“For the Kremlin, he is perfect,” he said.
