Since the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) began operating the J-20 fifth-generation fighter jet in February 2017, China has solidified its position as a leading military power in modern aviation.
With this achievement, China became the second country in the world after the United States to develop and deploy an indigenous stealth fighter jet. The success of the program has raised many questions about China’s ability to compete with the United States in the race to develop sixth-generation fighter jets, which will be critical to future air superiority.
The J-20, also known as the “Mighty Dragon,” not only confirmed China’s ambitions, but also exceeded expectations in terms of production speed and technological advancements.
Meanwhile, the U.S. F-35 program has faced multiple technical problems and delays, drawing harsh criticism from U.S. military officials and lawmakers. This contrast between China’s rapid progress and the challenges facing US plans is a cause for growing concern.
Within a few years of the J-20’s introduction, it became clear that China had not simply caught up with the United States in the development of its sixth-generation fighter, but had potentially surpassed it.
In September 2022, U.S. Air Combat Command Commander General Mark Kelly warned that China is well-positioned to begin fielding sixth-generation fighter jets before the United States. He said China should not waste time debating the relevance of air superiority, but instead follow a clear and focused path to achieving it.
That same year, questions began to surface about the financial viability of the United States’ Next Generation Air Superiority (NGAD) program. The costs associated with developing a new fighter jet became a major hurdle, raising questions about whether the United States could complete the program on time and within budget.
U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall acknowledged that the program has not yet reached the engineering, manufacturing, and development stages, which has delayed the expected schedule for entering service with the new fighter jet.
By 2024, the U.S. Air Force was seriously reconsidering whether to move forward with NGAD or seek cheaper alternatives, such as lighter, shorter-range sixth-generation fighters and unmanned systems. These options may provide a partial response to the Chinese threat, but they will not provide the same level of countermeasures against China’s sixth-generation fleet.
Meanwhile, China’s success has been remarkable. In December 2024, China unveiled two sixth-generation fighter flight technology demonstrators, highlighting the country’s significant progress in this field.
In contrast, the United States is still grappling with the conceptual and technical framework for NGAD, leading many to question its ability to maintain its lead in this important competition.
Analyst Abraham Abrams, a leading expert on China’s next-generation fighter jet program, emphasized the importance of the J-20’s development schedule. He pointed out that China has successfully gone from the first demonstration flight to operational deployment in just six years.
By comparison, America’s F-22 and F-35 programs took 15 to 16 years. This demonstrated China’s ability to develop a new generation of fighter jets in a significantly shorter period of time, putting the United States at a disadvantage.
Abrams also emphasized that China now has a stronger and more adaptable technological and industrial base than it had when developing the fifth-generation fighter.
This means that China is quite likely to outpace the United States in developing and deploying sixth-generation fighters.
The U.S. military relied on advanced digital assembly and testing techniques to accelerate NGAD development and reduce costs, but Air Force Secretary Kendall said the benefits of these technologies had been “over-hyped.” I admitted it.
Compared to the timeline for the F-35, which took more than 15 years from the start of its development phase to entering service, assuming NGAD follows a similar development trajectory, it may not enter service until the late 2030s.
These developments have led to increased attention to what appears to be China’s emerging startups in aviation technology.
China could begin operating sixth-generation fighters before the United States significantly changes the global strategic balance, potentially posing new challenges to American air superiority.
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