2025 Oscar nomination odds: Ben Theusmer’s math picks

This month, every awards body is forced to grapple with the same debate. Nominations and honors will continue as scheduled to provide a distraction and a sense of normalcy in the face of the Los Angeles wildfires. Or postpone or cancel ceremonies to honor those who lost so much in Los Angeles and allow people to focus on the road to recovery.

Personally, I think there is merit on both sides of this argument. I went through the same debate when deciding whether to publish my mathematical predictions for the 12th Oscar nominees, or to hold off until a month later when it’s time to predict the winners. Ultimately, I decided to follow the Academy’s lead in this regard. If the Academy is going along with Oscar season, I’m going to do that too.

The predictions below are based on the weighting of key inputs from previous awards seasons, with more weight given to inputs that have performed well in predicting nominations in each category in the past. This not only provides a set of predicted candidates, but also a snapshot of the competition for victory in each category. Last year’s model predicted a 10/10 for Best Picture nominations, but we’ll likely see more upsets this year. Moving on to mathematical predictions…

Best work award

From above, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Anora are the locks and serious threats to win it all. Complete Unknown has received a belated boost from the Directors Guild and should join Emilia Perez, Dune: Part 2 and Wicked in the top 10.

Then, interestingly, five movies fall in the gray area between 25% and 75%. You can easily look at the awards season resumes of “The Nickel Boys,” “Substance,” “Sing Sing,” “September 5,” or “A Real Pain.” and makes a convincing case for preferential treatment among each of these subclasses. It would be quite a surprise to see any of them make the leap to the Dolby stage, but for now, just hearing their name called on Thursday morning will be a huge win.

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Best Director Award

Unsurprisingly, the calculations show that the top three for Best Picture and Best Director are the same. Brutalist (Brady Corbett), Anora (Sean Baker), and Conclave (Edward Berger).

For others, their films all have the benefit of earning nominations, but the path to an Oscar all comes with pitfalls. The next group leader, Coralie Ferguito (Substance), missed out on a Directors Guild nomination and continued to drop down the list.

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Best Actor Award

For the third time in a row, “The Brutalist” has topped the list, this time with lead actor nominee Adrien Brody taking the lead. But for those looking to handicap the March races in January, it’s hard to imagine there’s much of a gap between Brody and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave).

At the bottom of the list is not a double. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice, The Other Man) has not one, but two movies that could make this list. Neither is very likely in and of itself, so it’s unlikely that he will be the first person in Oscar history to be nominated for multiple major acting awards in the same year.

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Best Actress Award

At first glance, this looks like a thrilling binary race between Mikey Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance). But there’s still a way to go for this incredibly slow-paced story to be told. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) defied conventional wisdom by winning the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama, and she’s at the top of the list for a lack of other accolades. To rank, Golden Globe honors are a strong first step. With only four candidates getting over 50 percent, it feels like the final spot could come from almost anywhere on the list.

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Best Supporting Actor Award

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is off to a great start this awards season, sweeping the major nominations and capping it off with a Golden Globe win. If there’s anyone to derail his momentum, it’s probably Edward Norton (The Complete Unknown), Yura Borisov (Anora) or Guy Pearce (The Brutalist).

Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) were considered the favorites for No. 5, but Jonathan Bailey (Wicked) ), the Screen Actors Guild surprised everyone. .

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Best Supporting Actress Award

Emilia Perez has at least a chance of double nominations in two categories: Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Song. As for supporting actresses, Zoe Saldaña will be key, but Selena Gomez will need a little luck. Other strong competitors here are Ariana Grande (Wicked) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave).

While some may raise some eyebrows at Felicity Jones’ low ranking for her role in The Brutalist, her lack of Screen Actors Guild or Critics Circle Award nominations is a nail in the coffin. That could pave the way for someone else to take her place. Oscar list.

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Best Original Screenplay Award

Two award-season style comedies (i.e., comedies with serious themes) are at the top: “Anora” and “A Real Pain.” Closely followed by The Brutalist and The Substance.

Then, in my opinion, this is the most difficult of the major categories to predict the entire list of candidates. The Challengers are a very weak favorite at just 35%. Kneecaps made the list thanks to BAFTA recognizing their accomplishments (albeit few others). “Hard Truths” is a popular contender, despite continued disappointment in previous nominations announcements. When making predictions here, choose your favorite script and hope for the best.

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Best Screenplay Award

Models in this category typically have the advantage of having access to the USC Scripter Award, which leads to the best screenplay. But this year, Scripter’s nominations were delayed until less than 24 hours before the Oscar nominations were announced, or after this article went to print.

Since that data point doesn’t exist, the remaining input is Golden Globe winner Conclave as the frontrunner, followed by The Nickel Boys, Emilia Perez, and Sing Sing. But A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, and Wicked aren’t far behind.

Reasonable minds can be divided on whether LA should have an awards season right now. However, things are progressing well and we will find out who is still in the race on Thursday morning.

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