2025 Oscar Best Original Screenplay Predictions

The Variety Awards Circuit section brings you all the awards news and related content throughout the year. Featuring official predictions for upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety Awards Senior Editor Clayton Davis. The predictions page reflects the current standings of the race and does not reflect the personal preferences of individual candidates. As other official (and unofficial) polls have suggested, the race is fluid and subject to change based on topics and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.

Best Adapted Screenplay Commentary (Updated December 10, 2024): Jacques Audiard’s genre-bending crime musical “Emilia Perez” enters this season with an overwhelming record of 10 Golden Globe Award nominations. , which set a new record for the most nominations ever received. A comedy or musical movie. The nominations include Best Original Screenplay, an honor that has historically been avoided for musicals in major awards races. This is the third musical to be nominated for the Golden Globe Award for Best Original Screenplay. “

The two musicals that preceded it, Rob Marshall’s Chicago (2002) and Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (2016), were both films that combined music and story. It paved the way for the screenplay to be evaluated. Both achieved great success at the Golden Globe Awards. Chicago went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture and also won Best Adapted Screenplay, but lost that category to The Pianist. Meanwhile, La La Land won seven Globes, but fell short at the Oscars, losing both Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture.

In Emilia Perez’s case, a Golden Globe win could launch a broader Oscar campaign in the screenplay category. Musicals have historically struggled to gain traction in this area. The only musical to ever win Best Adapted Screenplay was Vincente Minnelli’s gorgeous Gigi (1958). Since the Academy Awards began in 1929, only 12 musicals have been nominated in this category, the most recent being “Chicago.”

Maybe “Wicked” will also join your music love? You must do so to get the best photo (if you believe you can get it).

While “Emilia Perez” dominates the headlines, Ramel Roth’s searing adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel “The Nickel Boys” has been quietly gaining momentum on the awards circuit. , which received great acclaim at last year’s awards, including a major win at the Newcomer of the Year award. Direction and cinematography by York Film Critics Circle; cinematography and editing by Los Angeles Film Critics Circle.

At the Golden Globe Awards, “The Nickel Boys” received a sole nomination in the Best Picture (Drama) category, but despite its high profile, it received isolated reviews. In history, only eight films have been nominated in the top Golden Globe category. Three of those films failed to receive Oscar nominations: The Great Debaters (2007), La Bamba (1987), and The Inspector (1962). Of the remaining five films, three were nominated for Oscars for Best Original Screenplay: Crimes and Misdemeanors (1989), In Cold Blood (1967), and The Professional (1966). However, none of the eight won the Best Picture award.

Will the ‘Nickel Boys’ be able to break this trend? The film, a devastating depiction of institutionalized racism in Jim Crow-era correctional schools in Florida, has already garnered attention as a cinematic achievement. Critics have praised Roth’s ability to translate Whitehead’s sharp prose into a visual medium, capturing the lyrical beauty and unflinching brutality of the original. A real threat in this category.

The 97th Oscar Awards will be held on Sunday, March 2nd. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.