The word of the year in Indian politics for 2024 was ‘overconfidence’. Politicians and political parties went through a rollercoaster ride with the Lok Sabha elections in the summer and the four state assembly elections at the end of the year.
For even the smartest politicians, overconfidence leads to failure, failure leads to humility, humility leads to introspection, introspection leads to course correction, course correction leads to success, and success leads to failure again. It seems like I’m stuck in a cycle I can’t escape from. Overconfident.
This cycle repeats with incredible predictability. If there is a lesson for Indian politics in 2024, it is to avoid overconfidence. This cycle speaks not only of Indian politicians, but perhaps of all people around the world.
A year ago, it was inconceivable that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party would not win a majority in the Sabah elections. However, the number of seats was reduced from 303 to 240. The Bharatiya Janata Party lost 72 seats it won in 2014 and 2019 in 2024. The party’s poor seat performance in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana could have otherwise been fatal. It was to expand into new areas.
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400 plus to 240
The reasons for the unexpected underperformance of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Prime Minister are already well known. From over 400 slogans that backfired among Dalits, to not being able to quell Rajput anger, to refusing to offer or even promise freebies, to blatantly disrespecting the parent Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. , all the members of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s election camp were showing overconfidence.
Prolonging the election over two months in the height of the summer heat was supposed to help the Bharatiya Janata Party maximize its campaign efforts, but it had the opposite effect. The BJP thought Ram Mandir was its trump card, but it lost the Ayodhya seat itself. Locally, BJP supporters complained that tickets were given to unpopular candidates. They complained that the party was acting arrogantly.
The stunning underperformance surprised the Bharatiya Janata Party itself and proved its best pollsters wrong. It showed that as long as there are free elections, even a weak opposition party can rise like a phoenix if the ruling party makes a mistake.
The BJP quickly corrected itself and went back to square one, beginning to mend relations with the RSS, reinvigorating the party cadre, and re-establishing a pact with OBC sub-voters. Thus, the BJP achieved victory in Haryana.
It is interesting that the Bharatiya Janata Party performed better in Haryana than in Vidhan Sabha, as the opposite was expected. What changed that was a cycle of overconfidence and failure. The secret sauce of this cycle is called humility.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the overconfident Omar Abdullah contested the difficult Lok Sabha seat of Baramulla and lost. The defeat could have been dire for his party’s prospects in the Vidhan Sabha elections a few weeks later. But perhaps they needed a reality check of the overconfidence that leads to failure.
By adhering to the basics, the National Congress was able to defeat all kinds of maneuvers to divide votes. They returned to power in a historic parliamentary election, defying all odds.
The Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra suggested that there was an insurmountable anti-incumbent force against the Mahayuti alliance in the state. Maha Vikas Aghadi’s victory would have seemed only a matter of time.
While the reprimanded Mahayuti came up with a generous giveaway scheme and worked hard to address all the shortcomings, the overconfident MVA had a poor, delayed and fragmented campaign.
campaigns are important
Congress has generally read too much into the ruling, leading to an overconfident view that Indian voters have turned their backs on Prime Minister Modi and that automatic reinstatement of Congress is imminent. But the 2024 election showed us that nothing happens automatically. Indian voters cannot be taken for granted.
It also shows how voters can change their perspectives in a matter of months. In December 2023, the Bharatiya Janata Party won Rajasthan, but in June 2024 it lost half of the seats in Sabah. This shows the importance of traditional election campaigns, which have traditionally focused on anti-incumbency.
If there was a leader who demonstrated the ability to avoid overconfidence this year, it was Jharkhand’s Hemant Soren. Out of compassion, Mr. Soren did not take for granted that his arrest and subsequent bail would be a victory.
A number of new plans, an intense campaign by him and his wife showed an effort to win people’s votes in a difficult way. Even the Jharkhand state assembly held small public meetings to put welfare schemes to vote, the kind of effort lacking elsewhere.
Polls are expected to be held in Delhi and Bihar in 2025. Both states are interesting enough to keep the audience entertained.
