Last Updated:January 02, 2025, 18:05 IST
Russia-Ukraine war refuses to die down with both sides digging their heels in. Israel has devastated Gaza after the October 2023 attack led by Hamas. Syria’s civil war took a shocking turn with rebels ousting Bashar al-Assad. A brutal civil war has broken out in…Read More
Syrian opposition fighters celebrate after the Syrian government collapsed in Damascus, Syria, on December 8, 2024. (AP Photo)
The Ukraine-Russia war that began in February 2022 led to a series of conflicts for various reasons in different parts of the world, including Israel, Gaza, Syria, Sudan and Myanmar, taking a huge toll on not only the stakeholders, but the world at large.
Will 2025 continue to witness the rage or will be there an end to this violence? Let’s find out.
What Is The Status Of The Gaza War?
Gaza Strip, which is small territory along the Mediterranean Sea, became the hotbed of violence in October 2023 when Palestinian extremist group Hamas unleashed attacks on Israel, with hundreds of gunmen infiltrating communities in the area.
About 1,200 people were killed, and more than 250 were taken to Gaza as hostages, according to Israeli tallies. More than 44,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed in air and artillery strikes carried out by the Israeli military in response, Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry said.
On January 1, 2025, Israeli strikes killed at least 12 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, mostly women and children, officials said. Israel’s military said it “eliminated” Hamas fighters.
Defense Minister Israel Katz has warned that Hamas will “suffer blows of a magnitude not seen in Gaza for a long time” if it doesn’t release the remaining hostages and stop firing at Israel.
The Israeli military has stated quite often that it only targets militants and has blames Hamas for civilian deaths because its fighters operate in dense residential areas. The army said it has killed 17,000 militants, without providing evidence.
Some 90% of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million have been displaced, many of them multiple times, due to the war.
The US and Arab mediators have spent nearly a year trying to broker a ceasefire and hostage release, but those efforts have repeatedly stalled. Hamas has demanded a lasting truce, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting until “total victory.”
The International Criminal Court (ICC) in November issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu and former defence chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The war has impacted Israeli citizens. More than 82,000 Israelis moved abroad in 2024 and 33,000 people immigrated to the country, Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics said. Another 23,000 Israelis returned after long periods abroad.
But there is a chance that the war could end this year. Donald Trump had told Netanyahu that he wanted the conflict to end before he returns to the White House on January 20. After he was declared a winner, Trump had said in his address that he wants all wars to end.
Netanyahu has repeatedly said Israel will keep hold of Gaza for the “foreseeable future” after the war ends. He also wants the Palestinian Authority to take a role in Gaza’s administration.
Josef Federman, Associated Press’ news director (Israel-Palestinian territories-Jordan), said there are signs that the war is in its final stages. “But even if it ends, I don’t see how anybody would want to invest into rebuilding Gaza again, given the history where every three or four years there is another war where all your work gets destroyed. So for them to get investment this time on that the scale that’s needed, there are going to have to be some big changes in the way people think.”
Is Putin Ending The Ukraine Conflict?
Experts predict that Russian President Vladimir Putin could up the ante against Ukraine as he would be set to reclaim the territories that were once part of the Soviet Union.
Professor Anthony Glees from the University of Buckingham told the Mirror that Putin is unlikely to be satisfied with a peace deal imposed by the West and aim for further expansion, targeting post-1997 NATO states.
“By 2025, Putin will advance his strategic plan to undermine and force post-1997 NATO states, including Poland, Finland, and the Baltic nations, to leave the alliance,” Glees warns. He told the Mirror that this “big grab” could cause a global war.
With Trump promises his electorate to end the Ukraine war within a day by negotiating a peace deal, reports suggest his plan may embolden Putin rather than deter him. Trump proposed deal includes freezing the current front lines, establishing a buffer zone, and delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years.
As per Kyiv Independent, Putin had said Russia would agree to a ceasefire and peace talks only if Ukraine withdrew from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia and disavowed its goal of joining the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Putin has also demanded that Ukraine acknowledge Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian territory.
“As soon as Kyiv declares readiness for such a decision and begins a real withdrawal of troops, as well as officially abandons its NATO ambitions, we will immediately cease fire and begin negotiations,” Putin had said at the time.
The Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, and since then, Moscow has made steady gains in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops have taken over 30 square kilometres of Kyiv’s territory.
Ukraine had responded to Russia’s offensive by using US long-range Army Tactical Missile System. Though experts insist that Kyiv being given permission to use these missiles is not a game changer, Moscow has responded by lowering its threshold for using nuclear weapons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose term was due to end in May 2024 has been extended due to martial law. He would need to be re-elected for Russia to consider him a legitimate signatory to any deal to ensure it was legally watertight, Putin had said.
Samya Kullab, Associated Press correspondent in Ukraine, told the Guardian that the situation is far different from when the war began. “The jubilation and the joy from those initial moments has kind of turned into this incredible feeling of gloom and coming to terms with what we’ve always known — that Ukraine is at a terrible disadvantage. I would describe it as being bled out slowly,” Kullab wrote.
European Union leaders believe Ukraine needs to hold on and maybe placate Trump to open ideas for negotiations with Russia. The EU will have to continue to sanction individuals and companies in Russia.
Who Is In Charge In Syria After The Government Collapse?
In Syria, protests began against the rule of President Bashar al-Assad, who came to power in 2000. Pro-democracy protesters during the peak of Arab Spring in 2011 took to the streets in Syria, calling for the ouster of the dictator. But the movement was crushed by Assad’s forces, leading to the establishment of small militias and armed opposition groups from the Syrian military.
As anti-establishment forces grew, the Syrian allies stepped up support. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Lebanon’s proxy Hezbollah helped the armed rebel groups, while Russia bolstered the Syrian Air Force with warplanes. Soon, al-Qaeda started taking interest in the cause of Syria’s opposition forces. By 2014, extremists, including ISIS swept the country.
The US then created the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – comprising Kurdish fighters – to eliminate ISIS without confronting the Syrian regime. The SDF fought against the ISIS and ended their territorial existence in Syria. In 2020, Russia and Turkey agreed to a ceasefire in the opposition-held region of Idlib.
In 2024, the war was triggered by a coalition of rebel forces calling themselves the Military Operations Command. They swept through the villages outside Aleppo—the second largest city in Syria – and eventually seized Damascus – the capital city.
Assad has vowed that Syria will continue “to defend its stability and territorial integrity in the face of all terrorists and their supporters”. The defence ministry said it was preparing to launch a counteroffensive. “Joint Syrian-Russian warplanes” have intensified precise strikes on rebel positions, killing and wounding dozens, it said in a statement.
But some experts have already expressed scepticism over Assad’s chances. Aron Lund of the Century International think tank told CBS, “Aleppo seems to be lost for the regime. And a government without Aleppo is not really a functional government of Syria.”
They cited the fact that Russia was heavily distracted by the war in Ukraine and that Iran and Hezbollah were left weakened by their conflict against Israel.
The experts said the rebels had been biding their time for years. “This has to do with geopolitics and local opportunity,” Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies told The Washington Post. “The rebellion at large had regrouped, rearmed and retrained for something like this.”
US President Joe Biden had called the fall of Assad a “fundamental act of justice” but also a “moment of risk and uncertainty,” and said rebel groups are “saying the right things now” but the US would assess their actions.
Experts predict that West Asia could see massive changes in 2025. A US official told CNN that developments in Syria mark the collapse of “Iran’s artifice” across the region.
Whatever happens in Syria will have a major impact on its neighbours Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Israel. “In a matter of weeks, Iran lost its pillars in the Axis of Resistance. After the heavy blow that Hezbollah suffered at the hands of Israel, the fall of Assad is a fatal strike on Iran’s influence efforts in the Middle East,” Danny Citrinowicz, a non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, told Council for Foreign Relations (CFR).
What’s The Status Of Civil War In Sudan?
The Sudanese civil war between two military factions, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in September 2024. It started as a power rivalry between the military heads of the SAF and the RSF, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Hamdan Dagalo respectively. What began as a conflict in the capital city of Khartoum has spread to Omdurman, Bahri, Port Sudan, El Fasher and the Port Sudan cities, as well as the Darfur and Kordofan states.
The war is taking place as both warring parties are adamant about gaining ground and legitimising their power. The SAF, which came to power through a coup in 2021, claims to be the legitimate government, with the UN just about recognising them. However, the RSF has territorial gains around the capital and other war zones. It opposes the SAF’s efforts to represent Sudan internationally, claiming legitimacy. The RSF, a former Arab militia known as Janjaweed, seeks alliances from several Arab countries to support its claim to power.
Sudan has been under the UN arms embargo, since the 2004 Darfur crisis, which has been now been extended for another year. However, the embargo has not blocked the flow of weapons. A Human Rights Watch report in July claimed that the warring parties have been using armed drones, anti-tank guided missiles, truck-mounted multi-barrel rocket launchers, and mortar munitions produced by companies registered in China, Iran, Russia, Serbia, and the UAE.
Around nine rounds of peace talks led by the US and Saudi Arabia have been held, but all failed in the initial stage. The latest round of US-led peace talks was held in Geneva, Switzerland, on August 14, 2024. But, neither of the warring parties attended.
Any new administration ruling Sudan would be a challenge to the internationally recognised and army-led national government which was forced out of Khartoum last year and now operates on the Red Sea coast in Port Sudan. A group of civilian politicians and armed group leaders have agreed to set up a “peace government”, RSF members told Reuters.
They said it would be civilian-led, independent of the RSF and set up to replace the government in Port Sudan which they accused of prolonging the war.
The civil has impacted several regions, with more than 2 million people seeking shelter in neighbouring Chad, South Sudan and Ethiopia. The refugee camps are overflown and have raised concerns in Europe that many will attempt to reach the continent. In February, dozens of Sudanese drowned when a migrant boat capsized along the Tunisia-Italy route. A lack of law and order has triggered ethnic clashes along the South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea borders. More than 100 deaths were reported in ethnic violence in the Abiey region, a disputed land between Sudan and South Sudan, according to the UN.
There is a fear that the military rivals would divide Sudan, leading to a similar situation in Libya. Unlike Ukraine and Gaza, the Sudanese war has not gained international traction, but the repercussions have been the same — fatalities, fear and destroyed livelihood.
Where Does Myanmar Stand In 2025?
The ongoing civil war in Myanmar, since the military toppled the civilian government in 2021, has killed more than 50,000 people and displaced around 3 million.
The fighting between the junta and armed resistance groups in the first two years of the war led to a stalemate while 2024 saw the military on the back foot. With the active Ukraine and Middle East wars, violence in Myanmar conflict has been received global attention.
In February 2021, the Myanmar’s military staged a coup to overthrow the civilian government—on the same day the parliament is set to swear in the winners of the 2020 election, in which Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won by a landslide. As a result, international condemnation and pro-democracy protests swept across the country, with the junta responding with a brutal crackdown. Nearly 500 were killed in the first two months of the coup.
In May 2021, the National Unity Government (NUG), comprising ousted lawmakers, protesters and ethnic minorities, announced its armed wing – the People’s Defence Force (PDF). But in August, Min Aung Hlaing named himself the Prime Minister, and announced a potential extension to the state of emergency.
In 2022, resistance forces become more united, with many PDF units and ethnic armies forming partnerships to launch joint attacks against junta troops.
In October 2023, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of ethnic armies, launched ‘Operation 1027’, seizing control of key areas from the military, marking a key victory for the resistance and a turning point in the war.
In January 2024, China brokered ceasefire between junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance. But the junta announced mandatory conscription for all men between 18 and 35 years old and all women between 18 and 27 in February. The embattled military proposed a peace agreement with the resistance in September, urging them to “solve political problems politically,” but it is widely snubbed by the NUG.
Rebels in December took control of the country’s western border with Bangladesh after insurgents of the Arakan Army (AA) drove out the junta’s Border Guard Police (PGP5) in northern Rakhine State. The 270 km border with Bangladesh is now governed by the rebels.
The AA will likely be the first insurgent group to take complete control of a state in Myanmar, as per BBC.
Myanmar’s neighbours are tense. Thailand in December held talks to resolve the political crisis. The meeting was attended by foreign ministers and high-level representatives from Myanmar as well as Laos, China, India, Bangladesh and host Thailand. But experts think the approach is unlikely to fructify.
David Scott Mathieson, an independent analyst working on conflict and human rights issues on Myanmar, told Deutsche Welle, “Unless the Myanmar military is serious about peace, these talks will be extremely limited. You can’t approach any diplomacy on Myanmar without a clear understanding that the military is the root cause of all the problems.”
