Why is India now reaching out to the Taliban?

India’s recent diplomatic outreach to the Taliban government in Afghanistan signals a marked shift in its view of the region’s geopolitical realities.

This comes more than three years after Kabul fell to the Taliban and India suffered a major strategic and diplomatic blow.

Two decades of investment in Afghanistan’s democracy through groundbreaking projects such as military training, scholarships, and the construction of a new parliament were quickly undone. The collapse also paved the way for the growing influence of regional rivals, especially Pakistan and China, eroding India’s strategic foothold and raising new security concerns.

But last week showed signs of change. India’s top diplomat Vikram Misri met with the Taliban’s deputy foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Dubai, the highest level of engagement since the fall of Kabul. The Taliban government has expressed interest in strengthening political and economic ties with India, calling it a “regionally and economically important power.”

The talks reportedly focused on expanding trade and leveraging Iran’s Chabahar port, which India is developing to bypass Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports.

How important is this meeting? Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think tank, told me that Delhi gave the Taliban leadership the de facto legitimacy it has sought from the international community since returning to power. .

“The fact that this treatment is coming from India, a country that has never had friendly relations with the Taliban, makes this even more important and also a diplomatic victory for the Taliban,” he said. say.

Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, countries have adopted a variety of approaches toward the Taliban regime, balancing human rights and security concerns with diplomatic engagement. For example, China has actively engaged with the Taliban government, emphasizing security and economic interests, and even has an ambassador in the country.

Although no country has officially recognized the Taliban government, up to 40 countries maintain some form of diplomatic or informal relations with the Taliban government.

This is why experts like former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan Jayant Prasad are wary of India’s support.

He said that for the past three years, India has maintained contact with the Taliban through its diplomats. India closed its consulate in Afghanistan in the 1990s during the civil war, but reopened it in 2002 after the war ended. “We wanted to get involved because we didn’t want this hiatus to develop (again). This is, quite simply, a step forward in the relationship,” he says.

India has “historical and civilizational ties” with Afghanistan, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said in Parliament in 2023. India is investing more than $3 billion (£2.46 billion) in more than 500 projects across Afghanistan, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals and clinics. . He trained Afghan officers, awarded thousands of scholarships to students, and built a new parliament building.

This reflects an enduring geopolitical reality. “There was a natural warmth between Delhi and Kabul, irrespective of the nature of the regime in Kabul, be it monarchical, communist or Islamist,” the Indian Express noted.

Kugelman agrees. “India has a significant legacy as a donor of development and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, which has translated into public goodwill among the Afghan people that Delhi does not want to lose,” he says.

Interestingly, amid rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, relations with Delhi seem to be easing. Pakistan claims that the hardline Pakistan Taliban (TTP) operates from sanctuary in Afghanistan.

Last July, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told the BBC that Pakistan would continue its attacks on Afghanistan as part of its counterterrorism operations. Dozens of people were killed in Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan days before talks between India and the Taliban government, the Afghan government said. The Taliban government denounced the attack as a violation of its sovereignty.

This marks a sharp deterioration in relations since the fall of Kabul in 2021. At the time, a top Pakistani intelligence official was one of the first foreign guests to meet with the Taliban regime. At the time, many saw the fall of Kabul as a strategic setback for India.

“Pakistan is not the only country moving closer to the Indian Taliban, but it is true that Delhi is scoring a major victory in its evergreen competition with Pakistan by moving closer to its long-standing and key assets. ,” Kugelman said.

There are other reasons to promote relief efforts. India seeks to strengthen connectivity and access Central Asia, which cannot be reached directly by land as Pakistan denies transit rights. Experts say Afghanistan is key to this goal. One strategy is to cooperate with Iran in developing the Chabahar port to improve access to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

“For Delhi, it is important to focus on the Afghan part of this plan by working more closely with the Taliban leadership, which fully supports the Indian plan, as it will help Afghanistan strengthen its own trade and connectivity. “It makes it easier,” Kugelman said.

India’s recent assistance is clearly aimed at preventing terrorist threats to India, deepening ties with Iran and Central Asia, maintaining goodwill among its people through aid, and countering the beleaguered Pakistan in Taliban-led Afghanistan. It helps advance India’s core interests in India.

What about the drawbacks?

“The main risk of closer ties with the Taliban is the Taliban themselves. We are talking about having close ties to international terrorist organizations, including Pakistan, and reinventing themselves from what they were in the 1990s. “We’re talking about violent, brutal actors who have done little to help,” Kugelman said.

“India may be hoping that by keeping the Taliban on its side, so to speak, the Taliban will be less likely to harm India and its interests, and that may be true. But in the end, But can we really trust actors?” That will be an uneasy question for India as it continues to carefully navigate this complex relationship. ”

Prasad sees no downside to India’s current engagement with Afghanistan, despite concerns about the Taliban’s treatment of women. “The Taliban are in complete control. Letting the Taliban stew will not help the Afghan people. Some kind of engagement with the international community could put pressure on the government to improve its behavior.”

“Remember, the Taliban are desperate for recognition,” Prasad said. “They know that that will only happen after internal reforms,” ​​including bringing women back into public life and restoring their rights to education, work and political participation.