Turkish President Recept Tayyip Erdogan has set out on a four-day tour of three Asian countries with Pakistan as his final stop after visiting Malaysia and Indonesia. The visit means deepening bilateral relations between Ankara and Islamabad, but it has a broader geopolitical meaning, rather than being able to afford to ignore it.
Türkiye and Pakistan relations
Erdogan’s visit comes when Turkey and Pakistan are strengthening their relationship in many regions, particularly in defense and counterterrorism. Recently, Pakistan signed a contract to buy Turkish naval vessels, further boosting their defence partnership. In January, the two countries held a Targtreis-XI Navy movement in the Eastern Mediterranean, showing an increase in military coordination.
Turkey has played a key role in strengthening Pakistan’s military capabilities through defence cooperation, technology transfer and joint production agreements. The collaboration spans multiple areas, including naval shipbuilding, drone technology and weapons sales. Turkey is supplying Pakistan with T129 ATAK helicopters, Milgem class corvettes and various defense systems, strengthening Islamabad’s military infrastructure. Additionally, Turkish defense companies such as Aselsan and Roketan are engaged in joint ventures with Pakistan to develop advanced weapons. This partnership not only deepens strategic relationships, but also strengthens defensive production for Pakistan’s indigenous peoples and reduces dependence on Western suppliers.
Another indication of their growing security cooperation was the second round of Pakistani Weed Counterterrorism Consultations, which took place six years later in Islamabad. The discussion focused on key issues such as halting terrorist financing, preventing radicalization, and controlling extremism online. Both countries share similar security challenges. Pakistan is fighting the Balochistan rebellion, while Turkey is dealing with Kurdish separatists. This common ground brought them closer in their efforts to tackle terrorism together.
The new focus on counterterrorism cooperation between Turkey and Pakistan is an important aspect that India carefully analyzes. Pakistan has long been accused of having a terrorist network run against India. India has consistently advocated for a harsh global stance on terrorist financing and radicalisation, a region that Pakistan has struggled with in the past.
If Turkey plays a role in helping Pakistan strengthen its counterterrorism mechanisms, it could lead to positive outcomes. However, tensions can rise if cooperation extends to protecting factors that India considers threats.
Türkiye’s strategic outreach and BRICS aspirations
One of the biggest changes in Türkiye’s foreign policy is the efforts to participate in BRICS. Erdogan’s speech at the 79th UN General Assembly in September did not mention Kashmir. This is a major shift from his previous speeches that often sought a UN lawsuit on the issue. The change appears to be part of Turkey’s larger plan to strengthen relations with emerging economic groups while carefully managing relations with India.
For India, the possibility of Türkiye’s entry into BRICS has both advantages and challenges. On the one hand, Erdogan may ease his pro-Pakistan attitude and urge him to fit existing members of the group, especially India.
Meanwhile, increasing ties between Türkiye’s NATO membership and China could cause complications within BRICS. India is looking closely to see how turkeys balance their position in BRICS and whether they continue to support Pakistan on issues like Kashmir.
In response to the continued overtures of Turkey with Pakistan in the first half and unnecessary interference in India’s domestic affairs with Kashmir, India strengthened its ties with rivals in Turkish regions such as Armenia, Cyprus and Greece.
For years, Erdogan was one of the few world leaders who raised Kashmir at UNGA, often reflecting Pakistani stories. However, his 2024 speech omits the issue completely, indicating a change in priorities. Since 2019, his reference to Kashmir has gradually softened, moving from a no-obligation resolution to a general call for peace between India and Pakistan. Last year’s UNGA speech by Erdogan suggests the possibility of a readjusting Turkish approach.
Several factors can explain this change. Turkey’s growing economic ambitions, particularly outreach to BRICS and closer engagement with India, may be driving a more practical foreign policy. Furthermore, Ankara’s evolving stance could be influenced by its economic challenges and the need to cultivate stronger trade relations with India, a major player in the global economy.
India’s Defense Bonds and Strategic Concerns
Turkey’s soft stance on Kashmir may seem like a positive development for India, but the defence relationship with Pakistan remains a concern. The sale of Turkish naval vessels to Pakistan and joint military exercises reflects deepening strategic integrity. The Turkish defense industry also offers UAV technology to Pakistan, which could be exploited in asymmetric war scenarios.
India, which has strengthened its own navy and airborne capabilities, will closely monitor these developments. Modernising efforts by the Indian Navy, including the acquisition of new aircraft airlines and submarines, are in part in response to regional changes in military power. Advances in defence cooperation between Türkiye and Pakistan will be scrutinized due to potential security implications.
Erdogan’s visit continues with a broader pattern of increasing diplomatic activities in Pakistan. In recent months, Islamabad has hosted several well-known leaders, including Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko. These visits are part of Pakistan’s efforts to project themselves as a key player in regional geopolitics, particularly as they tackle economic and security challenges.
From an Indian perspective, Pakistan’s ability to attract diplomatic attention, particularly from countries with strategic influence, such as Turkey, assesses New Delhi in terms of its long-term impact on regional stability. It’s a factor.
Beyond Pakistan, Erdogan’s visit to Malaysia and Indonesia reflects Turkey’s growing ambitions in Asia. His latest UNGA speech in September 2024 criticized the global order of Western rule and called for reform of multilateral institutions, in collaboration with the broader vision of the multipolar world. The involvement of Türkiye’s ASEAN, the Indian Ocean Rim Association and BRICS suggests strategic changes to emerging economies.
For India, this represents both challenges and opportunities. While Turkey, with a more Asian focus, may be seeking deeper economic ties with India, parallel involvement with Pakistan requires caution. The trajectory of Turkey’s relationship with India will depend on whether Ankara continues its defensive partnership with Pakistan or whether it seeks to balance regional alignments.
Türkiye’s arms export ban is prohibited
Erdogan’s silence regarding Kashmir does not indicate the complete thawing of India’s miscellaneous bonds. Turkey reportedly banned India from defensive sales to India following the cancellation of a major shipbuilding contract with Turkish Anadoru Shipyard, part of the TAIS Consortium. The $2 billion deal included the construction of five fleet support vessels for the Indian Navy at Hindustan Shipyards with Turkish technology and engineering support.
Instead, India chose to proceed with the project locally without Türkiye’s involvement. India has formally cited its policy to increase domestic shipbuilding capabilities, but the decision is believed to be influenced by Turkey’s pro-Pakistan stance.
Why India is watching carefully
Erdogan’s visit to Pakistan is more than just a daily diplomatic involvement. This reflects a shift in geopolitical tides, from Turkey’s desire for BRICS membership to its evolving attitude towards Kashmir. Erdogan’s omission of Kashmir in UNGA indicates the possibility of a recalibration of Turkish foreign policy, but its deepening defense relationship with Pakistan remains a concern for India.
India’s response could be multifaceted. It will continue to strengthen its own defensive capabilities while diplomatically engaging with Turkey so that Ankara does not drift too far into Pakistan’s strategic trajectory. At the same time, India will leverage its position within BRICS and other global platforms to shape the future alignment of turkeys.
With a rapidly evolving global order where strategic partnerships are constantly changing, Erdogan’s visit to Pakistan is a key moment for India to assess, adapt and respond to changing dynamics in South Asia and beyond. It will serve as.
