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It’s been a turbulent month for France’s relations with its former African colonies, as its influence on the continent faces its biggest challenge in decades.
As Paris was formulating a new military strategy that would drastically reduce the permanent military presence in Africa, two of its closest allies were dealt a double blow.
The Chadian government, considered France’s most stable and loyal partner in Africa, announced on Independence Day that it would end defense cooperation to redefine its sovereignty.
Hours later, in an interview published in Le Monde newspaper, Senegal’s new president said it was “clear” that French soldiers would no longer be on Senegalese soil in the near future.
President Basil Diomai Fay said: “Just because the French have been here since the days of slavery doesn’t mean it’s impossible to do anything else.”
The announcement comes amid France’s efforts to revive its waning influence on the continent. Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrault is wrapping up a visit to Chad and Ethiopia, and President Emmanuel Macron acknowledges for the first time that as many as 400 West African soldiers were killed by French forces in 1944.
French authorities remained silent for almost 24 hours after Chad’s announcement, eventually announcing they were in “close dialogue” about the future of the partnership.
Mukahid Durmaz, senior analyst at global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, said, referring to the arid region south of the Sahara, “Chad’s decision marks the end of postcolonial French military control across the Sahel.” It will be a nail in the coffin.”
The decisions by Senegal and Chad are “part of a broader structural change in the region’s engagement with France, where Paris’s political and military influence continues to decline,” Durmaz added.
These follow recent expulsions of French troops by military-led governments in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, where French troops have fought alongside local forces for years in the face of stubborn Islamic extremist insurgencies. Emotions worsened.
What is France’s new strategy in Africa?
Last month, Jean-Marie Bockel, President Macron’s special envoy for Africa, submitted a report to Macron on the evolution of France’s military presence in Africa.
This was part of Macron’s “renewal of partnerships with African countries” announced in a speech in Burkina Faso in 2017, early in his presidency.
Details of Bockel’s report have not been made public. But three senior French officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive talks with the countries involved, said France was aiming to significantly reduce its military presence at all bases in Africa except for the Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti. . I will be traveling soon.
Officials said this does not necessarily mean France will reduce military cooperation, but rather respond to the needs expressed by each country. That could mean providing more specific training in airspace surveillance, drones and other aircraft. France may also temporarily send troops.
Officials did not say how many troops would be cut, but said it was a significant reduction.
Earlier this year, the French military established an Africa Command similar to the U.S. Africa Command. The newly appointed commander, Pascal Ianni, specializes in influence and information warfare, a necessity highlighted by Russia’s growing presence in Africa.
“You can continue military cooperation, as many countries do. But the idea of having permanent military bases could be used as political ammunition against you and spark a kind of disinformation war. That may not be the best way to go about things,” said Will Brown, senior fellow for U.S. policy. European Diplomatic Center.
Meanwhile, analysts say France is seeking to increase its economic presence in English-speaking African countries such as Nigeria. Nigeria and South Africa are already the continent’s two largest trading partners.
At the time of Chad’s announcement, Macron was hosting a meeting with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu.
Where in West Africa does France station its troops and why?
Since the independence of the French colonies in Africa, France has maintained a policy of economic, political, and military influence known as Françafrique, which includes the presence of several thousand permanent troops in the region. was also included.
France still has 600 troops in Ivory Coast, 350 in Senegal, 350 in Gabon and about 1,500 in Djibouti. There are 1,000 troops stationed in Chad.
The French Defense Ministry said the French military’s role in Africa is to train local soldiers and strengthen their ability to fight extremists, mainly in the areas of peacekeeping, intelligence and logistics. But critics argue that this stance has allowed Paris to maintain its influence and protect a political system that favors France.
“Africa’s French-speaking countries want to see a change in the nature of this relationship,” said Gilles Yabi, director of the West African Citizens Think Tank.
Why would West African countries expel French troops?
Rising anti-French sentiment has led to street protests in several countries in West and North Africa, but the government, which came to power on a promise to redefine relations with the West, has claims that it does not bring benefits to the people. They want to explore options with Russia, China, Türkiye and other major powers.
Chad’s President Mahamat Deby “would not have made this decision without guarantees of safety from other parties,” Brown said. “We know that he has serious support from the United Arab Emirates, which is very interested in what is happening in neighboring Sudan and Darfur. Turkey has also done some outreach. We know that.”
Chad shares borders with four countries where Russian troops are stationed. In January, Deby traveled to Moscow to strengthen relations with “partner countries.”
The military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, which ousted French troops, are closing in on Russia, which has sent mercenaries across the Sahel and is accused of abuses against civilians.
However, the security situation in these countries is deteriorating, with extremist attacks by both armed groups and government forces, and the number of civilian deaths increasing. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, 3,064 civilians were killed in the first six months of this year, a 25% increase compared to the previous six months.
It is unclear whether the withdrawal of French troops led to an increase in violence. But Shantanu Shankar, an analyst at the Economist Information Bureau, said it had created a “huge security vacuum”, adding that Russia would not be able to fill it. The units of the Russian private military company Wagner are funded by the military regime, which has limited financial resources, he said.
