According to Wall Street economists, newly published tariffs from President Donald Trump could hurt the US and their neighbors. Trump issued three administrative orders on Saturdays, imposed 25 % tariffs from Mexico and Canada, and imposed a 10 % tax on Canada energy products and Chinese products. Customs duties are taxes paid by companies when the product crosses the border, but economists are worried that consumers will be given to consumers in a higher price, which will lead to weak economic growth. “Our economist hopes that fully conducted tariffs will bring a meaningful result. Mexico’s recession is the basic case. US inflation is 0.3 in the next 3-4 months. There is a possibility that the baseline of ~ 0.6pp (headline PCE inflation will be 2.9 % to 3.2) and US growth is -0.7 ~ -1.1pp low VS base for the next 3-4 quarter. The line (the actual GDP growth may be 1.2 % to 1.6 %). “The personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) is a preferred scale of the federal preparation system. If tariffs were short -lived and full or delayed in exceptions, Zza added that the impact would be reduced. GOLDMAN SACHS estimates a 0.7 % increase in PCE and a 0.4 % hit of GDP from the tariff plan. Goldman’s Chief Economist Yang Hatsusus said that the company would update their predictions because of the details of the available tariff planning in a Sunday client. One of the wrinkles that can worsen the impact on the US economy than expected is retaliation tariffs from other countries. Canada has already announced taxation on US products. Hazuus pointed out that Trump’s presidential order has a “retaliation clause” and Trump could lead to higher tariffs in the trade war. “This is a clear warning to retaliation, but it has no automatic effect,” said Hazus. Trump repeats tariffs in the 2024 campaign trail, advertising as a negotiations tools in other policy fields such as immigration and drug execution. The angle of negotiations is one of the reasons why Wall Street strategists and economists seem optimistic that customs duties are a temporary problem. “There are three reasons to think that 25 % of tariffs may not be permanent. First of all, they are destructive for the United States, and the US business group is already pressure on the Trump administration. Last. I think Canada and Mexico are likely to agree to most of the Trump conditions on immigrants and drugs, “said Claudio Iligoen, a global economist in the United States, stated to the client on Monday. 。
