WASHINGTON – President Trump has yet to disclose the extent to which the bromance between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin puts pressure on Russia to end the crushing war with Ukraine.
Since taking office, Trump has dropped Putin’s strategic “genius” and “savvy.” Amid a prominent rhetorical change, Trump instead warns that the Russian president he once called “very smart” is ruining his country by extending the war .
“He (Putin) should make a deal,” Trump told reporters in the oval office on his first day back in the White House. “I think he’s destroying Russia by not making a deal. I think Russia will be in big trouble.”
The rationale behind Frostiètón is simple enough. During his campaign, Trump promised to end the battle within 24 hours of taking office. That deadline has passed. That is, the clock is etched into Trump’s vow to stop the costly and destructive war that began nearly three years before Russia invaded his Democratic neighbors.
Trump will need both Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to come to the table and negotiate a peace deal. For Russia, it means giving up hope of engulfing Ukraine as a whole.
Ukraine is ready to negotiate, Trump told the World Economic Forum three days after taking office. And Russia?
“Well, you’ll have to ask Russia,” he said.
“We were talking about Putin and we were talking about Trump, and this is the most important thing he’s ever said,” interviews Michael McFauul, former US ambassador to Russia under the Obama administration. stated in.
The Russian Embassy did not immediately return a request for comment.
How to put pressure on Putin
National security experts say that words alone won’t force Putin to give up on his quest to conquer Ukraine. For that to happen, they told Putin he needs to demonstrate that continuing the fight is fruitless.
That requires a few things. According to former Ukraine US ambassador John Herbst, Putin said that as long as Russian forces continue to gain ground in eastern Ukraine, as long as the Ukrainian forces are seizing territory in the Kursk region within Russia. They remain uninterested in peace negotiations. , and other former officials.
“He (Putin) doesn’t want to negotiate now as his army is moving forward,” Herbst said. “He wants to pocket more Ukrainian territory once negotiations begin.”
Sergii Leshchenko, advisor to Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff, told NBC News in an interview: It is not an ultimatum by Russia. In this case, Ukraine showed its willingness to negotiate. Russia is not. “
It is unclear how far Trump will go to confront Russia through Ukraine and whether he is ready to lead military aid, including long-range missiles, to Kiev.
Trump is at his own disposal a variety of tools that may make Putin more likely to stop fighting. The question is whether he uses them.
The Trump administration temporarily delayed the shipment of weapons to Ukraine last week, but sources with knowledge of the matter said the exact reason was unclear. After that, the cargo resumed.
Taking Ukraine from weapons would be a serious blow to Kiev’s war efforts against much larger neighbors.
The White House National Security Council pointed to Trump’s comments about Ukraine during an appearance in the Oval Office on Monday.
So Trump told reporters he was open to linking financial aid to what the US wants: Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.
“We’re putting hundreds of millions of dollars in,” Trump said. “They (Ukrainians) have great rare earths. And I want rare earths to be safe, and they are happy to do that.”
In a statement, Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said: The weekend debate centers around its repayments and the best way to ensure that the timetable is not yet established. “
Split into the Trump administration
Trump’s advisors and cabinet members say national security adviser Mike Waltz and Ukrainian envoy Keith Kellogg want to use American leverage to produce Putin, according to National Security Advisor Mike. -It is divided into waltz and Ukrainian envoys. To the Kyiv government.
Others prefer to cut the billions the US gave Ukraine in the Biden administration as a way to quickly end the conflict. Critics of that approach say it effectively disarms Ukraine and thus represents a surrender to Russia.
Before becoming the then vice president. JD Vance was a fierce skeptic of the money the Biden administration gave to Ukraine.
“Why are you spending $130 billion on Ukraine when you can’t even pay your bills at home?” Vance said in one speech. He also called the Ukrainian government “the most corrupt” in Europe and perhaps the world.
“The president’s national security team is in sync,” Kellogg told NBC News.
“The President will use all levers of American strength, if necessary, to enable the conclusion of the genocide over the past three years,” Kellogg added.
A Vance spokesperson declined to comment on his position on US aid to Ukraine on Tuesday.
Trump laid out several ideas to support Ukraine while the war continued.
In a social media post two days after the oath, he warned that if President Putin did not negotiate an end to the war, he would slap Russia with tariffs, sanctions and taxes on the sale of Russian goods.
The problem with that approach is that US trade with Russia has dropped sharply and tariffs are not embracing. Last year, the US imported goods worth around $2.9 billion from Russia, according to the US Census Bureau. In contrast, this figure was nearly $30 billion in 2021, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“It’s a completely red herring,” a former Biden administration national security official said of the Trump tariff threat.
“We have completely separated the US economy from the Russian economy,” the former official added, speaking on the condition that they would be free to speak anonymously. “So our ability to hurt Russia with tariffs is only a small measure.”
Another option is for Trump to use Russia’s own frozen assets in contrast to US taxes to continue replenishing Ukrainian supplies and arms.
William Taylor, former Ukraine ambassador, said that Russia’s $300 billion reserves, sitting in European and US banks, would “provide a great help to provide arms and financial support to Ukraine.” .
“What Trump can do is to grab those reserves, put them in Ukrainian accounts, and pressure the Ukrainians to use that money to buy weapons from the US and continue to run the government. ” Taylor said in an interview.
“President Trump knows that the Russian economy is vulnerable and vulnerable to further sanctions. So he knows he is taking advantage of Putin,” he added.
The fear among Ukrainian supporters was that Trump would abandon the country when he took office. The warmth he had shown Putin over the years suggested that he might bring about a positive reconciliation with Russia, they worried.
Last year, in a debate between President Trump and then-President Kamala Harris, Trump refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war.
But some have questioned Trump as he is in office, others may be a fair broker, or at least to make sure his team hasn’t sold out Ukraine. I was sincerely committed to this.
“I think he (Trump) has begun to realize how difficult it is to solve this issue, and he has begun to realize that Russia is not constructive unless we apply more pressure. “A US official involved in Ukraine and Russia’s policies said in an interview, discussing the terms. Anonymity for free speaking.
“One of the reasons Trump’s rhetoric has evolved is the switch from campaign to governance mode. The obstacle to peace is not Ukraine. I think it’s like daring him. And he also has It’s about how bad it would be if there was this f—-up, politically, nothing else, strategically.”
