On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines 8432 crashed and 38 people died. According to preliminary reports, the aircraft was shot by a Russian air defense unit and had to deviate from the scheduled flight route from Baku to Gosnui. The aircraft crossed the Caspi Sea while dragging his feet and crashed in front of the runway near Kazakhstan.
Coincidentally, the departure location of the stool and the city acta, which is close to the crash site, are two main ports: the Caspian Sea Reducing International Route (TitR), which is also known as an intermediate corridor. This trade route connects China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Torquie.
For Europe, the corridor is becoming increasingly important to avoid Russia and Iran under sanctions to gain access to Chinese products, Central Asia’s energy resources, and important raw materials. The EU invests a lot in the intermediate corridor trade, and an investment forum will be held in January 2024. Draw 10 billion euros for sustainable traffic connection development in Central Asia.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, in particular, hopes to attract long -term investments necessary for expanding logistics facilities necessary to increase trade. China has already poured a large amount of investment in ports in the two countries. Actta and Baku。 Thanks to the development of infrastructure, the amount of cargo transportation in the middle corridor increases rose It increased 63% in the first 11 months of 2024, to 4.1 million tons. Kazakhstan wants further development Enlarge The production capacity of the Port and Krik Port in the Caspi Sea will increase to 30 million tons by 2030, which will increase 7 times the current level.
Despite such a rose -colored number, serious tasks are left. The Caspi Sea, located in the center of the central corridor, is still a major obstacle to improving regional connections. Unresolved legal conflicts, local security issues, and steadily declining water levels may hinder the economic potential of this trade route.
Caspi Maigo Map (Wikimedia Commons)
Legal problem
For most of the 20th century, only the Soviet Union and Iranian countries could access the Caspi Sea. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, four new coastal countries, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, have appeared, requiring new legal agreements on the split of the sea. Everyone hoped to secure access to marine oil and gas deposits, and tried to acquire national control for the largest seabed area.
Years Legal dispute Continue. Iran proposed a condominium approach that enables access to abundant hydrocarbon fields between Iran and Azerbaijan. Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan The principle of the middle line。 These three countries Signed In the 2003 Music Agreement, the northern part of the Caspi Seafind was fixed in accordance with the middle line (MML). Iran and torque menistan Rejected MML principle for splitting the South Caspi Sea. This reduces the seabed area compared to the condominium approach.
of 2018 Treaty about the legal status of the Caspian SeaWas a major progress, but no solution to this problem was provided. Instead, the signature has left the issue to future negotiations among coastal countries. The treaty also did not help to overcome obstacles to the construction of submarine cables and pipelines, which are necessary to promote oil and gas exports from Central Asia, such as Caspian Sea Pipeline.
Based on the 2018 Treaty, coastal countries have been allowed to construct a submarine infrastructure based on a project that complies with environmental standards stipulated in the Caspian Marine Environmental Protection Framework Convention signed in 2003. Tehran Tournament,this is beginning Legal binding regional agreement signed by all states along the Caspian coast.
Russia and Iran are repeated Called The Tehran Treaty that effectively stops the construction of pipelines connecting Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. This causes the question that Russia and Iran may bring up concerns about environmental issues again and may prevent the development of other Caspian Sea. Scheduled electric cable and Hydrogen pipeline From Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan. Moscow and Tehran are unlikely to permit access to alternative energy sources in Europe, as the tension of the west is growing.
Caspian Sea militaryization
Many incidents occurred among coastal countries, with no legal progress on the seabed boundary settings. In 2001, he was in danger due to differences in opinions between Iran and Azerbaijan, over the development of Caspi Charcoal Charcoal. Military collision。 There is even more tension between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and the Azerbaijan gun ship Intimidated The International Petroleum Company operated a ship at least twice in 2008 on behalf of Turkmenistan.
With the continuing dispute today, a steady but steady military competition has begun. In the Navy balance of the Caspian Sea, Russia still has most of the cards. As a legal successor to the Soviet Union, three -quarters of all ships in the Soviet Union Caspian Navy inherited. Since Russia began a full -fledged invasion of Ukraine in 2022, additional ships have entered the Sea of Caspi after partial attacks have been reported. Withdrawal Supplies are carried from the Black Sea Fleet to the Caspian Sea via the Volga Don Canal.
Other companies are investing in the expansion of each fleet. Kazakhstan and Torque menistan Both companies have called for the cooperation of the Turkish shipping company to expand the fleet. Iran Introduced Azerbaijan was built a second domestic warship in the Caspi Sea in 2023 after the first domestic warship sank off the coast in 2018 in a storm. After the re -conquer of Nagorno Karabuff, Azerbaijan under consideration Re -distribution of funds to update aging naval inventory.
Since 2022, the Caspi Sea has been functioning as a launch pad of bombers and cruise missiles against Ukraine. In response, the Ukrainian army succeeded in attacking the Russian Navy base in Caspiecek, Dagestin, in early November 2024. According to what is conveyed The fleet flagship was damaged with several other ships.
These hostile acts are a potential threat to the Caspian regional security, combined with Russia’s Azerbaijan Airlines 8432 flight dropping. This may hinder long -term investment in trade and infrastructure development.
Reduction of water level
It is also a concern that the water level of the Caspi Sea is steadily declining. These have already decreased by 1.7 meters in the past 20 years. 2020 survey Published IN NATURE predicts that it will decrease by 9 to 18 meters by the end of the century. In particular, Kazakhstan has been greatly affected. The northern part of the Caspi Sea is the shallow, and the coastline here is already deeper. Retreated Up to 50 kilometers. On June 8, 2023, Kazakhstan officially Declared Emergency to decrease the water level of the Caspi Sea. President Ilham Ariev of Azerbaijan in August 2024 Called The shrinking of the Caspi Sea was “catastrophic”, and the book was even more serious. Discussed At a COP29 round table event held in Baku.
Concerns about the water level are shared in all coastal countries, but there is no agreement on the cause. So far, the government in this area is mainly pointed It affects the natural cycle of water level fluctuations, Use underestimated Responsibility or responsibility of other countries. However, there is no doubt that human intervention is one of the current environmental issues. For example, Russia Built A series of large dams on the Volga river accounts for about 80 % of the inflow of the Caspi River. Russian irrigation and drinking water intake have decreased inflow. Climate change play Further role. The annual precipitation is decreasing in the Caspian Sea and the Volga basin, while the evaporation rate has increased significantly. The water level may decrease further Drainage Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan.
Large -scale in Kazakhstan dredging Acta and Klik are already open to the ship. Despite these efforts, ships are still forced to leave. Partially loaded Because the water depth is shallow. Dol my costs and restrictions on cargo loading per ship have already increased transport costs for the entire Caspi Sea, and the entire central corridor has declined. In the long term, it is expected that the water level will decrease by 2100, and many of the Kaspi Sea port may not be completely accessible.
Future: Cooperation and competition in the intermediate corridor
On the other hand, Russia and Iran are hardly interested in strengthening Caspian Sea. The development of new trade routes and oil and gas infrastructure will compete directly with existing corridors and pipelines. Furthermore, through investment, both China and Torquie are Increase Their regional influence in the Caspi Sea basin.
Russia and Iran, on the other hand, have gained a lot of benefits by continuing the Caspian Sea. The Sea of Caspi is an important part of the world. North -south corridor Connect Russia and Iran. For these two sanctions, the importance of two -country trade is becoming increasingly important, and it is highly likely that a considerable part of weapons will be provided from Iran to Russia. Shipped Over the Caspi Sea.
The Ukrainian War deepened his relationship with Russia Azerbaijan。 Baku is an indispensable entity to export, avoid sanctions, and leave the land bridge with Iran. Although there was an Azerbaijan passenger aircraft shooting down, Dented In this important relationship, Russia is not interested in frustrating Azerbaijan’s ambition of expanding intermediate corridor trade.
On the other hand, the balance of naval power in this area is changing. The Russian Caspian Sea Fleet is still the largest and has a much better weapon system, but as a result of the decline in water levels, its advantage is gradually eroding. The Russian warships in the Caspi Sea are the largest among all the naval ships in the area, and they need a relatively deep sea area. Effective. With the war in Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to prioritize the fleet to adapt to this change.
In contrast, Kazakhstan currently has a shallow water ship that is currently increasing. Better equipment Active in the northern part of the Sea of Caspi. Torquie, in particular, plays a positive role in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan in supporting the expansion of fleets and the development of overall military abilities through the supply and acceptance of ships. Exercise。 As a result, small countries along the Caspian coast have the opportunity to develop the army more independently from Russia.
As an attempt to suppress one of the fundamental problems that enables this development, Russia, along with other coastal countries, Be expected We plan to discuss the drop in water level at the Tehran Treaty Convention, which is scheduled to be held in 2025. In any case, Russia and Iran are unlikely to abandon the de facto rejection rights based on the Tehran Treaty. It is related to the construction of a seabed pipeline and cable.
In short, there are still many obstacles in the Caspian Sea crossing and the development of infrastructure. In the current geopolitical situation, the intermediate corridor may look like an attractive option, but each coastal country faces each other, and its interests are divided into important local themes. It is very likely that it will not be possible to deal with it over time.
