“In the future, we will take decisive steps to realize a terror-free vision for Turkey and the entire region,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in his New Year’s speech.
These words refer to the ongoing reconciliation process between the Turkish government and the Kurds, which was started about three months ago by Debret Bahçeli, leader of the ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Erdogan’s coalition partner. This is what I did.
In October, Bahçeli shook hands with politicians from the Democratic Party for Equality (DEM), marking a turnaround in the political situation.
Bahçeli had previously argued that the left-wing, pro-Kurdish DEM was an extension of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and should be banned.
Bahçeli’s party has previously called for the reintroduction of the death penalty, primarily to execute imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
The PKK paramilitary group is classified as a terrorist organization by the EU and the US and has been in armed conflict with the Turkish state since 1984.
Approximately 40,000 people are said to have died in the violent conflict between Turkey and the Kurdish PKK from 1984 to 2009.
A hopeful chance?
Öcalan, who founded the PKK in 1978, has been serving a life sentence on Imrali Island off the coast of Istanbul since 1999.
Bahçeli’s next proposal, that Öcalan could be released in exchange for renunciation of violence and the dissolution of the PKK, therefore came as an even bigger surprise.
Shortly after, Bahçeli also publicly commented on the “thousand-year-old brotherhood” of Turks and Kurds, saying, “Turkey’s problem is not the Kurds, but their separatist terrorist organizations.”
“I have the necessary abilities and determination to actively contribute to the new paradigm,” Öcalan responded in a statement.
On December 28, two representatives of the pro-Kurdish DEM visited Öcalan in Imrali prison, calling him “full of hope.”
DEM politicians are currently holding talks with Erdoğan’s government and opposition representatives.
Is it all for President Erdoğan’s interests?
But some observers say there is more pragmatic politics behind the current efforts than love for the PKK.
President Erdogan is trying to secure a new term after 2028, but that is not possible under the current constitution.
Strictly speaking, there are two ways for President Erdoğan to win re-election. Either the constitution is amended, or Congress chooses early elections.
The problem, however, is that the ruling coalition is 45 seats short of winning such votes.
The DEM, which has 57 seats in parliament, could tip the balance in favor of early elections.
However, Berg Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Sabanci University, believes there may be other reasons for the move.
He told DW that President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) could no longer win elections because it lacked the Kurdish vote.
According to various estimates, Kurds make up between 15% and 20% of Türkiye’s population.
“Erdogan’s regime is in a serious political and economic crisis,” Esen said. “We have seen that in the current situation Kurdish voters prefer to vote for opposition candidates in the spring 2023 local elections.”
Meanwhile, Esen believes the ruling alliance needed to take some action to stop the downward spiral.
False optimism?
This is not the first time the Turkish government has attempted to reconcile with the Kurds in Turkey.
Efforts were launched to satisfy Kurdish demands for a Turkish state. These attempts have been called “opening up,” “resolution,” and “normalization processes,” and so far they have all ended in failure.
Political scientist Deniz Yildirim said: “If politicians speak in public and are hopeful, hinting that peace is closer than ever, there is no doubt that some progress is being made behind closed doors.” I’m sure the process is progressing reasonably well,” he told DW.
However, he added a warning against premature optimism.
“Turkey needs to resolve this chronic problem through peaceful means to avoid further bloodshed,” Yildirim told DW. “But it would be naive to expect this to happen at a time when press freedom and freedom of expression are being uprooted in this country, universities are being disempowered, and at the same time authoritarian centralization is increasing. .”
No reconciliation outside Türkiye
After World War I, Kurdish settlements were divided between Türkiye, Syria, Iran, and Iraq.
Since then, Kurds have been fighting for their state, or at least more power to decide their own affairs.
Turkey has not been granted autonomy to this day, despite President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s efforts to reconcile with Öcalan and the PKK.
Across the border in Syria, Turkish-backed militias continue to fight Kurdish YPG fighters.
Turkey considers them a threat to its territorial integrity.
But while Turkey considers the YPG to be a Syrian offshoot of the PKK, Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria are backed by the United States, further complicating the balance of power in the region.
Meanwhile, Turkey is demanding that the Syrian interim government disband the YPG, a Kurdish militia that controls much of northern Syria.
However, political scientist Esen said Turkey’s demands were not realistic from the Kurdish point of view.
“After years of bloodshed, the YPG has established itself as the dominant force in northeastern Syria. No matter what agreement is reached in Turkey, it is highly unlikely that they will give up their weapons,” he told DW told. .
Gülsen Solaker contributed to this article. This article was originally published in German.
