ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – Pakistan has entered the new year in relative calm after a tumultuous 30 months marked by political instability, controversial elections and an economy teetering on the brink of collapse.
Foreign policy and security challenges could emerge as the country’s most pressing concerns this year, as South Asia’s second-most populous country stabilizes its domestic politics and hopes for an economic turnaround. is high.
Analysts predict that 2025 will be tough for Pakistan. Pakistan manages its relationships with its neighbors, allies and adversaries around the world, as well as with the United States, where President Donald Trump is expected to return to power later this month.
Most of Pakistan’s foreign policy and security challenges stem from its neighbors, primarily Afghanistan to the west and arch-rival India to the east.
After the Afghan Taliban took control of Kabul in 2021, violence by insurgents and rebel groups intensified across Pakistan. Armed attacks claimed the lives of nearly 700 law enforcement personnel in 2024, making it one of the deadliest years in the country of 240 million people.
The attack was carried out primarily by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an armed group that considers the Afghan Taliban to be its ideological twin. Separate attacks by rebel groups targeted sites associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62 billion megaproject that has brought Islamabad and Beijing closer than ever as political and economic allies. did.
Christopher Clary, an adjunct fellow at the U.S.-based nonprofit Stimson Center and an associate professor of political science at the University of Albany, said Pakistan is “the most severely affected country in at least a decade, and probably in a decade.” He says he is facing security challenges. From the 1990s. ”
“Pakistan has no grand strategic options other than to put its economy in order and mend relations with other powers and neighbors. This will likely require years of work and bring the house down. It’s not clear how many years Pakistan will have to do that work by then,” Clary told Al Jazeera.
Below is a list of countries that will be the focus of Islamabad’s foreign policy this year.
China
Pakistani authorities frequently tout a friendship with China that goes “deeper than the seas and higher than the mountains.” However, in 2024, it became clear that a rift had appeared in their relationship.
The attack on the Chinese people and interests reached a climax, prompting an unprecedented public rebuke by the Chinese government’s envoy in Islamabad. “It is unacceptable to be attacked twice in just six months,” Jiang Jae-dong said at an event in Islamabad in October.
Chinese foreign policy expert Muhammad Faisal has warned that although China will continue to provide financial support to Pakistan, further expansion of CPEC projects in the country is unlikely.
“Pakistan will have to deftly navigate the growing pressure from Beijing for a ‘joint security mechanism’, which will essentially place Chinese security personnel on Pakistani territory, thereby forcing them to override existing security It will become a target for extremists, which will complicate the measures,” Faisal told Al Jazeera.
The presence of Chinese military personnel in Pakistan’s projects on Pakistani territory would be an admission of security failures by Islamabad, increasing the risk that Chinese nationals would be targeted and that Chinese fighters would kill Pakistanis. The politically sensitive possibility of this will also be amplified.
Meanwhile, experts also believe that President Trump’s hostile stance toward China has led to Beijing requesting public assistance from Pakistan, and Pakistan seeking diplomatic assistance to avoid bothering its long-time ally, the U.S. government. I am concerned that I will be forced to walk a tightrope.
President Trump has consistently taken a tough stance on China, and his first term is expected to spark a trade war between the two economic powers. In his second term, the US leader pledged to impose tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China.
“However, there are signs of hope as Pakistan is not high on the Trump administration’s international agenda. However, the common denominator in both Pakistan’s and China’s challenges is uncertainty,” Faisal said. Ta.
Kamran Bokhari, senior director at the US-based New Line Strategic Policy Institute, said China’s dissatisfaction with Pakistan stems from its extensive investments in CPEC, which have yielded little returns. He added that China’s woes could work in the United States’ favor.
“China is already very disappointed in Pakistan and relations have been tense for some time. The Chinese government is in a predicament because it’s knee deep. So it’s good for the US that China is mired in Pakistan,” Bokhari told Al Jazeera.
US
Pakistan’s relationship with the United States dates back to its independence from British rule in 1947 and its emergence as a new nation. However, relations between Islamabad and Washington have primarily focused on how Pakistan supported U.S. policy in the region, primarily in Afghanistan, where the Soviet Union invaded. The 1970s and 1980s or the US-led “war on terror” after the 9/11 attacks in 2001.
With the Afghan Taliban retaking power in Kabul, the strategic partnership between Pakistan and the United States in the South Asian region has diminished. Currently, the United States is reducing its investment in Afghanistan, but Pakistan is gradually moving closer to China due to economic, military, and technological needs.
Hassan Abbas, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., believes Pakistan needs to “carefully navigate” its relationship with the United States amid tensions with China and India. He said while “there are clearly tensions” on Pakistan’s side, a dramatic change in relations seemed unlikely.
“Security issues and regional challenges, such as instability in Afghanistan, are likely to dominate bilateral exchanges,” Abbas told Al Jazeera. Mr. Abbas is also the author of “The Return of Taliban: Afghanistan after Americans Left.”
Bokhari said Pakistan remains a low priority for the United States, which has pressing global issues to address, including the Russia-Ukraine war and several Middle East conflicts.
“At this point, I don’t think tensions have escalated to a significant level between the two countries, and Pakistan is playing its cards very safe. In Washington, D.C., Pakistan is a weak and troublesome state and above all… “There is a recognition that you need to take care of your own business first,” he said.
India
India remains Pakistan’s biggest foreign policy challenge.
Relations have been effectively frozen for years, although there have been limited exchanges in multilateral forums. Tensions over Kashmir escalated in 2019 when New Delhi stripped Indian-administered Kashmir of limited autonomy, prompting strong condemnation from Pakistan. India and Pakistan both control parts of Kashmir, but claim the entire Himalayan region, in one of the world’s longest and bloodiest military conflicts.
Analyst Clary told Al Jazeera, “The asymmetry with India is becoming increasingly pronounced, and Pakistan needs India to take this issue seriously so as not to jeopardize other Pakistani foreign policy objectives.” There are very few options to force people to accept it,” he said, adding that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “has very little ideology.” He is “interested in improving relations with Pakistan” and believes that “this is not realistic at a time of domestic instability” in Pakistan.
Abdul Basit, former Pakistan’s special envoy to India, believes that the Kashmir issue continues to be a stalemate that requires behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Speaking to Al Jazeera, he mentioned the Modi government’s abrogation of Article 370 of the Act, which granted partial autonomy to Indian-administered Kashmir, and said, “India has not shown a flexible attitude even after amending the constitution.” .
Basit believes that Islamabad must find a way to engage with New Delhi as India grows closer to the West, primarily the United States, over a common enemy in China.
“Otherwise, we will continue to progress from stalemate to stalemate and we will never be able to put our bilateral relations on a path to normal relations. To me, that is the crux of the matter when it comes to India.” said the retired envoy.
But Bokhari, of the New Lines Institute for Strategic Policy Research, believes it may be India that will be targeted by the US this year and come under pressure in its standoff with China.
“India has much closer and substantial ties with Iran, and Iran is building ports. It also buys oil from Russia, which is at war in Ukraine. So they (India) is more likely to come under pressure from the incoming (Trump) administration,” he said.
To attract the attention of the United States, Pakistan needs to offer strategic value, as it did during the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan and the post-9/11 U.S. war, Bokhari said.
“If you want to attract the attention of the United States, you have to offer them something that can significantly increase the interest of the United States. Only then can you attract attention,” he said. “It’s not that the US liked Pakistan or became close friends, it’s just that Pakistan provided a purpose.”
Iran
2024 was a year of disaster for Iran. Iran’s geopolitical interests in the Middle East suffered heavy losses, and Israel launched direct attacks on Iranian territory several times.
But this year began with Iran launching attacks into Pakistan’s Balochistan province, citing an armed group called Jaish al-Adl as a threat to security in the border area. The attack prompted swift military retaliation by Pakistan. However, tensions between the mainly Muslim neighbors did not escalate, and Tehran turned to diplomacy to resolve the issue.
Umar Karim, a researcher at the University of Birmingham in the UK, predicts a “uneasy approach” and new challenges will emerge as Trump returns to the White House.
Karim warned that deteriorating relations between Pakistan and Iran could lead to a deterioration in border security and could embolden Baloch separatists, who are said to be hiding in Iran. Baloch rebels have been fighting for decades for an independent homeland.
“Pakistan will pursue active engagement with Iran to avoid further hostility due to increased domestic violence,” Karim said.