If you’re familiar with the National Football League at all these days, you know what people say about modern offenses and the value of running backs within them. Over the past 20 years, with the rise of multiple receivers on the field and the decline in the value of running backs, both in the draft and free agency, it is now widely accepted that the NFL is a passing game and running backs are not. It is said that It doesn’t really matter.
As with any Absolute, there’s more to the story, and that’s especially true for the 2024 season. Most people already know that Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles and Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens are reinventing the concept of running back value with MVP-level seasons, but the 2024 league There’s an undercurrent of a creative and effective run game throughout. It’s showing up more and more in the metrics.
In 2023, 12 running backs had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage in a season, compared to 28 receivers. That has been the norm for a long time. The last season in which more running backs rushed for 1,000 yards than receivers was 2005 (23 running backs, 19 receivers), and the NFL is on pace for another year. Through Week 16, there are 11 running backs and 11 receivers with 1,000-yard seasons.
But in 2023, there were six teams that averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry. In 2024, that number has doubled to 12. Last season, two teams had a Rushing EPA above +10.0. This season, that number has increased to seven. And in 2023, seven teams ran the ball on at least 45% of their offensive snaps. That number will increase to 13 in 2024.
Why would that be? First of all, this means that what we have long considered the base defense – three linebackers and four defensive backs on the field – is no longer the base defense. This is an example of an offensive play caller catching up to this reality. Nowadays, the nickel defense (two linebackers and five defensive backs) is the true base defense for the majority of NFL teams, and the majority of defenses are better suited than the teams of yore to the dime defense (one linebacker). and six defensive backs). school stuff. This naturally results in fewer stacked boxes than in previous eras (7+ defenders on the defensive line and linebacker level), runs the ball more, and passes the ball less against the light box. . It’s just basic math and common sense.
Within that structure lies the fact that many of the NFL’s greatest schematic minds have come up with new and innovative running concepts.
Beyond the usual single-back ideas (all sorts of iterations of man blocks and zone blocks), there are ways NFL teams have conspired to make the run game much more interesting than in previous eras. What we’re seeing more than ever is pistol formations as a route composition. It was invented by University of Nevada head coach Chris Ault in 2005, and he perfected it with a little help from a mobile quarterback named Colin Kaepernick. The pistol is placed with the quarterback approximately 3 yards behind center and the running back placed approximately 3 yards behind the quarterback. This was an early version that started taking the NFL by storm in the early 2010s. Now, teams are extending that to a formation where the second back is parallel to the quarterback in an offset pistol set, where all the power and misdirection factors come into play.
Another wrinkle you’re seeing more and more is the reimplementation of Pony personnel with two backs in the backfield regardless of formation. In the old days of football, most running plays in professional sets consisted of two backs on either side of the quarterback, lining up under center. In the 1990s, this trend began to recede as teams needed more receivers on the field. Currently, Pony personnel can provide a rush advantage in a variety of ways.
pistol pony misdirection
“Pistol Pony Misdirection” may sound like a long-lost Eagles song, but Don Henley and Glenn Frey didn’t write it. The two people who most inspired this concept in the NFL are Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
Both teams have the added benefit of mobile quarterbacks, which could cause even more havoc on defense. Washington’s Jaden Daniels is a more pure runner than Green Bay’s Jordan Love, but the key point remains: When other players expect him to zig-zag, If you can put a linebacker into serious conflict with your zig-zig ability, that’s a big problem. .
For Green Bay, it will largely depend on lead back Josh Jacobs and how well LaFleur can design counters and delay runs that Jacobs can take into the final endgame.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by first-year offensive coordinator Liam Cohen, also dominate defenses with pistol-pony misdirection and a talented lineup of running backs led by Bucky Irving, a fourth-round rookie out of Oregon State. This is a team.
feed a large dog
Other teams are taking the lead blocker concept, which has been around since football history, to new heights. Both the Ravens and Chargers have big ringers that make run concepts much more difficult to defend. For Baltimore, that’s the 6-foot-3, 305-pound Patrick Ricard, who is classified as both a fullback and a tight end, but his primary role could be running the ball for Henry or the Ravens. It’s about paving the way for other talented athletes.
For the Chargers, who employ former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman, it’s the 6-foot-4, 296-pound Scott Matlock, who is actually an interior draft pick in the 2023 sixth round out of Boise State. He was designated as a defensive lineman.
This list could also include the San Francisco 49ers (with fullback Kyle Juszczyk) and the Miami Dolphins (with fullback Alec Ingold). Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel served as 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s run game coordinator from 2017 to 2020, so it’s no wonder there are similarities.
The Buffalo Bills, who have one of the most efficient run games in the NFL with primary running backs James Cook and Ray Davis, are adding their own concepts. They ran the ball with six offensive linemen instead of five (95 attempts), the highest rate in the league, and Alec Anderson was used as the sixth man up front.
The New Orleans Saints, led by first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, rely primarily on Pistol’s misdirection and halfback Alvin Kamara, as well as 6-foot, 245-pound fullback Adam Prentice. They operate with an interesting hybrid that uses large dogs to feed them as a secret weapon. Either way, these are two ways you can watch the NFL’s most prolific and effective rushing team do their thing.
But while NFL teams have arrived at the ideal version of their run game, there’s no question that their ground attack will be more important to the success of the 2024 season, and more and more coaches are trying to figure out the recipe. It incorporates its own unique spices. How long that lasts will largely be based on the defensive coaches’ ability to adapt to a more physical and loaded set of schemes without getting beat up against better quarterbacks.
For now? Nostalgic football fans will rejoice as the good old team is back in the NFL offensive mindset.
