European NATO members are discussing raising the alliance’s defense spending target to 3% of GDP at their annual summit next June in anticipation of Donald Trump’s return as US president.
Four people involved in the preliminary talks told the Financial Times that they were discussing a significant increase from 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), a move that would put increased pressure on an already strained national budget. It has caused unrest in many capitals.
The alliance calculates that 23 of NATO’s 32 members will reach the current 2% target this year, up from six in 2018. But it also means seven European member states, including Italy and Spain, have yet to meet the benchmark. Agreed 10 years ago.
But with President Trump’s demands that Europe pay more for its own defense and the recognition that current spending levels are insufficient to support Ukraine and deter Russia; Capital is forced to endure the scale of underinvestment.
The secret talks, which began at a meeting of alliance foreign ministers last week, may not yet reach a full agreement, but assume a commitment to reach a target of 2.5% in the short term and 3% by 2030. There is. people said. The new commitments are expected to be formally agreed at a summit in the Netherlands next year.
Alliance Secretary-General Mark Rutte declined to comment on questions about setting new targets, but said he called for targets to be set “much higher” than existing standards.
“I have a number in my head, but I won’t talk about it right now. But clearly, if you look at the capacity targets, you can see that there is still a gap. . . 2% won’t get you there. That’s clear,” he told the FT this month.
Rutte said it would be “good” to agree new targets at the Hague summit, despite European fiscal pressures that have brought down the German and French governments in the past two months.
“Politics is forced to make choices amidst scarcity, money is always scarce, and there are always too many priorities,” he said, adding that keeping the country “safe” is a top priority for leaders. He added that it should be.
As his first president, Trump used the 2018 NATO summit to press for more spending or risk the United States leaving the alliance. Dutch leaders, including Prime Minister Rutte, have pledged to accelerate spending increases to meet the 2% mark.
But the surge in spending came only in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The non-U.S. members of the alliance have increased spending by a total of about $100 billion over the past two years.
“Given all the challenges we face, such as the defense of Ukraine and NATO’s minimum capability requirements, this discussion will take place no matter what happens,” a German official said. “And the next NATO summit will be the perfect time for that.”
A commitment to 3% would be a “good signal for the United States and President Trump,” the official said. Germany achieved the 2% target for the first time this year.
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German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has long advocated for increased defense spending and warned that Russia would be in a position to attack NATO countries by 2029. “Germany did not switch to a war economy because it was bored,” the official said.
Further increasing spending will be a major challenge for many European countries, including economies such as the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
The UK will spend around £60bn on defense this year, the equivalent of 2.3% of GDP, with the government pledging to increase this to 2.5%. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has not said by when this will happen, only saying that the pending Strategic Defense Review will provide a “roadmap” to achieve that goal.
Defense officials and analysts have openly said that even 2.5% of spending is not enough for the UK military to modernize itself, continue to deliver a range of capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, and meet NATO’s latest plans. I admit it.
“The UK cannot meet the current NATO ‘demand’ of 2.5% of GDP,” one senior British military official told the FT.
Italy, which spends 1.49%, is already subject to the EU’s excessive deficit procedure for violating Brussels budget rules. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government has pledged to meet NATO’s current target of 2% of GDP by 2028.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crocet warned this week that Trump’s return would increase pressure on Rome beyond its existing goals.
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“I don’t know how long it will take, but I do know that Mr. Trump will accelerate this push,” Crozet said in a public appearance Monday. “It will be less than 2%. According to our NATO allies, it will be 2.5%, if not 3%.”
Spain, whose defense spending accounts for 1.28% of gross domestic product (GDP), ranks at the bottom of NATO, is trying to reduce its focus on the 2% standard.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez reminded foreign correspondents this week that Spain has achieved its second goal of devoting 20% of its defense budget to research and development and contributes large numbers of troops to NATO missions.
The United States spends about 3.4% of its GDP on defense.
Additional reporting by Bernie Jopson in Madrid and Lucy Fisher in London
Data visualization by Steven Bernard and Keith Fray
