CThe Chinese military has begun invading the area around Taiwan with a record number of fighter jets in 2024 to build the ability to launch a full-scale invasion, but a former top Taiwanese military commander said Beijing He said it would be possible within a year.
Analysts say China’s persistent harassment has taken a heavy toll on Taiwan’s resources, but it has been unable to persuade Taiwan to surrender because so far the threat of invasion remains hollow. Ta.
It is no secret that Xi Jinping is determined to annex Taiwan under what the president calls “unification.” He has made strong public commitments on multiple occasions, including in his recent 2025 New Year address to the nation, to bring China under the control of the Communist Party (CCP) and incorporate it into the Chinese motherland, by force if necessary. .
But in an effort to force Taiwan’s hand without resorting to direct military attacks, the military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has launched a wave of harassment and intimidation, using everything from weather balloons to aircraft carriers. Headed to Taiwan.
All this is coupled with continued non-military tactics such as legal and cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, and the weaponization of diplomatic and trade relations.
But until China is able to carry out a full-scale invasion, such tactics are “pointless” unless Taiwan surrenders, former Taiwan military commander Admiral Lee Shi-min told the Guardian. Ta.
“The most important strategy is to get you to surrender,” Lee said.
He said the PLA’s Taiwan-focused tactics can be broadly categorized into four types. “Coercive” tactics include gray zone warfare, such as near-daily incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), “coercive” tactics include blockades or isolation, and “punitive” attacks. included missile bombing, and “conquest” was an attack. A full-scale invasion.
This coercion tactic includes what Taiwan’s naval commander, Admiral Tang Hua, told The Economist in October that this was an “anaconda strategy” by the People’s Liberation Army to oppress Taiwan and disrupt its response systems. Trying to exhaust them, force them to make mistakes, and perhaps give them an excuse to start a lockdown. .
In several incidents, including one last week, undersea communications cables to Taiwan were allegedly cut or damaged by Chinese ships. Cutting off communications is one of the key elements experts predict will be part of a blockade or attack.
Lee said this coercive approach is aimed at preventing Taiwan from declaring independence and has so far been successful. The purpose of any coercive or punitive measures would be to force the Taiwanese government and people to submit to unification. Li said that the People’s Liberation Army is fully capable of carrying out these three types of measures, but has not yet begun the blockade or offensive because it has not yet been able to carry out the fourth conquest.
“If they don’t have the capability to carry out a full-scale invasion, capturing any of the first three is not going to work,” Lee said. “If Taiwan doesn’t surrender when it takes this anaconda approach, what can China do?”
US intelligence reportedly believes that President Xi has given the People’s Liberation Army a deadline of 2027 to achieve full-scale invasion capability. Lee said this is a dynamic assessment that also involves Taiwan’s own defense capabilities and the ongoing corruption issues in the People’s Liberation Army, so no one can predict exactly when it will be ready, but he expects it to be within 10 years. He said he believed it.
to the gray zone
Meanwhile, training continues, often in the form of gray zone warfare.
Most of these are air force aircraft intrusions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Fighter jets are flying more frequently and in greater numbers, moving closer and closer to Taiwan. As Taiwan is effectively forced to shrink its territory, Taiwan’s military is forced to respond to every incident, draining its resources and morale and shortening its alert time.
In 2022, 1,727 Chinese military aircraft flew into Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ, double the previous year’s total. Similar numbers in 2023, including meetings between then-President Tsai Ing-wen and senior U.S. officials during military exercises launched in April and September in retaliation for what it called Taiwan’s “separatist activities.” Concentrated.
In 2024, it will exceed 3,000.
Ben Lewis, a defense analyst who maintains an open-source tally of ADIZ intrusions, said the increase in 2024 is particularly significant given that the number of intrusions was actually very low in the first half of the year. states.
Mr. Lewis’s data, based on Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reports, showed a lull in ADIZ incursions in the months leading up to Taiwan’s presidential election in January, which many analysts at the time said The ruling Democratic Progressive Party and its presidential candidate, Lai Qingde, campaigned on this policy. .
Beijing typically views its exercises and gray zone activities as provocations, including activities such as freedom of navigation exercises by Taiwan, which engages in sovereignty violations and international diplomacy, and the United States, which maintains numerous military bases in the region. Connect with what is considered.
Mr. Lewis said that after Mr. Lai took office in May, there was an “unprecedented surge” in PLA air and naval incursions, which rose steadily until peaking at more than 430 incursions in July. It said it was close to the all-time high reported during a People’s Liberation Army exercise in August 2022. Nancy Pelosi visits the island. Spikes also occurred during military training.
Changes to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense’s reporting methods early last year meant it was no longer possible to confirm what types of PLA aircraft were flying and where. Less transparency is a “missed opportunity” for Taiwan to gain international attention, Lewis said. “The PLA’s policy of operations toward Taiwan is wide-ranging and diverse, and whether it be balloons, unmanned aerial vehicles (such as drones), maritime law enforcement, ADIZ operations, or joint patrols, they attract people’s attention and the PLA It may be useful to learn what kind of activities are being done. But they don’t share enough. ”
In addition to invading the ADIZ, the People’s Liberation Army has demonstrated more advanced joint operations, encircling the island with drones, conducting missile tests, and integrating civilian forces. In its annual report on China’s military developments, the U.S. Department of Defense notes that the PLA has “long emphasized the importance of joint fire strikes as part of large-scale operations,” and that the PLA’s documents include He said it has been clearly linked to the invasion.
The military exercises held in May and October, dubbed “Joint Sword 2024 A and B,” surrounded Taiwan’s main island and were the first joint exercises between all branches of the People’s Liberation Army and the increasingly militarized Coast Guard. Ta. The exercise “really demonstrated the PLA’s ability to build up forces, get people up and moving, and occupy areas of operations,” Lewis said. “That doesn’t mean they can keep it up, but it does mean they can keep it going at a good pace.”
While Taiwanese officials now expect multiple PLA exercises each year ostensibly targeting Taiwan, Lewis said Taiwan will “maintain strong control” in each response. ” he said.
“If the purpose of the exercise is to show how much more capability China has than Taiwan, it would take a great deal of professionalism and capability to respond to a large-scale militia exercise surrounding the island on all sides,” he said. It’s necessary.”
Analysts expect the PLA’s tactics to continue and escalate in 2025. The Democratic Progressive Party-led Taipei government firmly rejects the possibility of Chinese rule, and so do the majority of Taiwanese. It seems unlikely that they will surrender. But Lee said so far Beijing has at least achieved its goal of preventing Taiwan from advancing its sovereignty and independence.
“And during that time, they can practice, prepare, and build competency toward their end goal.”
