Russia is reportedly ready to begin serial production of new derivatives of the tactical ballistic missiles in the Iskander m range, ranging from 1,000 km. A report on the existence of the 1,000 km range variant of Iskander M, which first surfaced in July 2024.
On July 24, 2024, a post published on the Military Russia website announced the existence of a medium-range ballistic missile system based on the technical solutions of the 9K720 Iskander-M OTRK. . The missile has been developed by the Machinery Construction Design Bureau (Kolomna) since at least 2024.
This post conditionally called the missile Iskander-1000 and designated the NATO designated SS-X-33.
The hype and denial surrounding recent reports were important and there was denial. The next paragraph explains the reasons behind the fuss.
Limitations on Russian Tactical Missile Range
The development of tactical ballistic missiles in Russia has been heavily influenced by the international arms control agreement, particularly the mid-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty.
Established in 1987 between the US and the Soviet Union, the INF treaty banned the development and deployment of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles ranging from 500 to 5,500 km.
As a result, Russian tactical missile weapons such as the 9K720 Iskander-M were designed with a maximum range of up to 500 km to comply with treaty restrictions.
Ballistic missiles with a range of less than 500 km are called short-range missiles, while those in the range of 500-5,500 km are called medium-range missiles.
In 2019, the US retracted the INF treaty, citing allegations of Russia’s violations, leading to the dissolution of the treaty. The withdrawal removed legal constraints on the development and deployment of medium-range missiles.
However, while Russia may have secretly launched modest developments in medium-range ballistic missiles, it did not immediately respond to the US withdrawal from the US treaty.
Following several news reports that the US and NATO will deploy medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles in Europe in December 2023, the commander-in-chief of the Russian strategic missile forces will be entitled to Russian military operations if necessary. The industry can begin production and ensure the delivery of serial models of short-range missiles and medium missiles to the military in the shortest possible time.
On June 28, 2024, President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia could begin production and deployment of medium and short-range missiles in response to the deployment of similar US missile systems outside the national territory.
New missile nomenclature method
Military Russia reported on May 15, 2024, based on a video specializing in the 78th anniversary of the Kapstineya test site. The screen grab from the video shows a missile similar to the Iskander M but featuring a longer propellant case but short warhead.
The new missile launcher resembles the launcher of the Iskander-M Complex’s 9K720 launcher. According to military Russia, the launchers of the two systems could be the same.
Roughly speaking, to double the range of a ballistic missile, you need to double the propellant load or halve the payload. The former brings much larger missiles with different ballistic and flight control characteristics. In other words, you will develop new missiles rather than derivatives of existing missiles.
The Iskander-M missile has warheads weighing between 710 and 800 kg. It is unlikely that the Iskander-1000 will have a light warhead, as the Iskander-1000 is not effective against the type of high-value targets that the Iskander M system is designed to attack.
(Iskander-M features a highly explosive (HE) explosive fragmented warhead against hardened targets such as command posts, air defense systems, and critical infrastructure.
Russia appears to have doubled the Iskander-1000 range using a combination of advances in technology and material. Missiles may feature increased (10%-15%) propellant loads, upgraded rocket motors, more efficient propellants, and a combination of lighter materials and avionics.
It is also possible that the Iskander-M range was intentionally reduced by lower propellant charges to comply with INF regulations. So increasing the range could have been a limited challenge!
Accuracy and range
As missiles increase in range, inertial navigation systems (INS) drifting can reduce their accuracy. You can use Satellite Navigation (SATNAV) to “fix” the drift periodically. However, during missile attacks, the enemy will interfere with satnav’s signal.
The Iskander-1000 may have jam resistance Satnav and terminal guidance using radar image correlation. If so, it could prove to be even more accurate than the Iskander-M.
Iskander-1000 instruction
One of the major operational drivers behind the development of the Iskander-1000 was to further expand Russia’s strike capabilities into Ukrainian territory. In particular, it was to attract targets in western Ukraine, which previously out of the 500 km range of Iskander-M.
Currently, several important strategic and logistics goals, such as command centers, supply depots and critical infrastructure, are beyond the scope of Iskander M.
In the context of expanding the scope of strikes, Russia has already developed Oreshnik. This is a medium-range candidate missile that can reach speeds up to MACH 11 and supply multiple warheads.
However, Russia may be using Oreshnik as a negotiation chip for Quid Pro Quo negotiations to limit the capabilities of the weapons systems that the US and NATO supply to Ukraine.
Also, the Oreshnik could be a very expensive missile compared to the Iskander-1000.
Finally, Oreshnik’s repeated deployments revealed flight characteristics and allowed the US and NATO to develop countermeasures that would reduce its effectiveness.
Conclusion
The Ukrainian Air Force F-16 is based in its home in western Ukraine and is out of reach of Iskander M. Probably at Dubuno Air Force Base in the Lobuno region of Western Ukraine.
The 2,000 Mirage fighters, which will be transported to Ukraine by France at the end of the current quarter, could also be operated from air bases in western Ukraine.
Using the Iskander-1000, Russian troops can attack F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighters when returning to their home base after a strike mission before entering a hardened shelter.
Ukraine has rejected the report as misinformation. Andri Kovalenko, the head of the Ukrainian Centre for Countering Ukrainian Disinformation, rebutted the claims and accused Russia of using English publications to spread propaganda.
A recent report in the national interest amplifies concerns over new Russian missiles, saying, “The Iskander-1000 complex will effectively destroy the F-16 at Ukrainian airfields and target deep targets at the rear of NATO. You can. Region.
“Russia has a system that fundamentally changes the balance of regional power,” the expert added.
All evidence points out that in the context of the ability to hit targets across Ukraine, the Iskander-M missiles are very realistic, and even game-changing, are very realistic. But the threat it poses to NATO is mostly hype.
Vijainder K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot, author, software architect, entrepreneur and military analyst. For the author’s personal views, please follow the author @vkthakur
