On November 16, 2024, India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) conducted a test of what it claimed was a “long-range hypersonic missile” from Abdul Kalam Island in the Bay of Bengal. The missile has a reported range of 1,500 kilometers and can carry different types of payloads, and India’s defense minister has said that with this capability it will be a “major It was called “Milestone.”
This is not India’s first foray into hypersonic missiles. DRDO officials hinted at the development of an experimental scramjet engine design, the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator (HSTDV), in 2008. The technology was tested in subsequent trials in 2019 and 2020, with limited success. The BrahMos-II cruise missile, which is being jointly developed with Russia, is said to be a hypersonic cruise missile capable of flying at seven times the speed of sound, or Mach 7. The missile was supposed to be tested by 2020, but it has now been postponed. Separately, since 2017, Indian deep tech startup HTNP Industries has also been working on research and development of a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle (HGV-202F). It will be some time before these tests lead to the adoption of hypersonic missiles by the Indian military. However, the emphasis on these missiles indicates that technological prowess in advanced missile development is driven less by the advantages of speed and more by a desire to enhance India’s security and prestige alike.
What is a hypersonic missile?
Hypersonic missiles fly at more than five times the speed of sound, or Mach 5. They have increased speed, maneuverability, and accuracy compared to existing ballistic and cruise missiles, and are generally invulnerable to advanced missile defense systems. There are currently two types of hypersonic missiles. Hypersonic cruise missiles use air-breathing scramjet engines to propel themselves through the atmosphere at speeds of Mach 5 or higher. A boost-glide vehicle, on the other hand, is a projectile launched from a ballistic missile that escapes from the atmosphere, re-enters the atmosphere, and then glide and maneuver towards its target. India has not disclosed the type of missile it recently tested, but it is likely a hypersonic cruise missile.
The emphasis on hypersonics indicates that technological prowess in advanced missile development is driven less by the advantages of speed than by a desire to enhance India’s security and prestige alike.
Russia, China, and the United States lead the world in hypersonic missile development. Recently, however, emerging powers such as Iran and Iranian-backed non-state armed groups such as Ansar al-Allah have all claimed to possess hypersonic capabilities. How these weapons work, as more actors publicly claim to have hypersonic missiles, and as these weapons are increasingly used in conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war. It is important to understand their comparative advantages and disadvantages, how they affect strategic stability. teeth.
There is still debate as to what constitutes a hypersonic missile. Technically, a hypersonic missile must be a projectile traveling between Mach 5 and Mach 25. Therefore, any ballistic missile that travels more than 1,000 kilometers at hypersonic speed during its terminal phase can be considered hypersonic.
Since speed is the most important variable for hypersonic missiles, these weapons cover a wide range of capabilities. For example, a Mach 6 flying hypersonic missile like Russia’s Kinzhal is almost always easier to track and attack through advanced air defense systems. Ukraine claims it has fired numerous volleys at Kinzhal since May 2023 using U.S.-provided Patriot surface-to-air missiles. On the other hand, the Mach 20-plus Boost-Glide Avangard system currently being developed by Russia would be much more difficult to detect.
However, despite this diversity of capabilities, hypersonic weapons are very expensive and require prior generations with maneuverable reentry vehicles or multiple individually targetable reentry vehicles. Compared to ballistic missiles, it is much less effective at evading missile defense systems. . So what are hypersonic weapons useful for? The only real advantage of hypersonic weapons is their maneuverability, the possibility of evading the enemy’s advanced missile defense systems. Hypersonic development is therefore important more as a demonstration of the military’s technological capabilities and as a matter of pride than for the actual speed advantages it brings.
Implications for strategic stability in South Asia
To understand whether this technology will significantly change the strategic balance of the subcontinent, it is important to assess how superior India’s hypersonic capabilities are compared to its key strategic rivals in South Asia. be. China has a formidable missile and air defense fleet, including the domestically produced HQ-9 SAM and HQ-19 anti-ballistic missile systems, along with the Russian-made S-300 and S-400. In comparison, in Pakistan’s air defense kit, only the Chinese HQ-9 type has limited ability to shoot down tactical and battlefield ballistic missiles, and another Chinese-supplied LY-80 low and medium air defense system has limited ability to shoot down tactical and battlefield ballistic missiles. It is reported that the kill rate is only 60%. Probability against cruise missiles.
Given the proximity of the two neighbors, hypersonic speeds give India little advantage over Pakistan. Hypersonic weapons will not materially change the strategic balance between India and Pakistan, given the already very short reaction times faced by Pakistani policymakers against Indian missiles. . All major cities in Pakistan are located within 300 to 1,000 kilometers of a potential open source evaluated missile and warhead facility in Molki, Rajasthan, India. For short-range targets up to 350 kilometers away from this missile base, ballistic missiles like Prithvi II can reach Pakistan within about five to eight minutes. Tests have shown that cruise missiles such as the supersonic BrahMos take 290 seconds (about 4.88 minutes) to hit a target 290 kilometers away. Additionally, the Agni-I ballistic missile can reach Pakistani cities like Islamabad (700 kilometers away) in about 9.5 minutes, based on its tested speed. According to the CEO of Brahmos Aerospace, the future hypersonic Brahmos II will have similar characteristics to Russia’s Zircon missile, which reportedly has a maximum speed of more than Mach 8. During the test, it flew 479.5 kilometers in about four and a half minutes, or Mach speed. 5.18. If these capabilities are replicated in the Brahmos-II, this increased speed would reduce Pakistan’s reaction time, but not significantly. Therefore, in the absence of an advanced missile defense system against Pakistan, it would be unnecessary for India to deploy hypersonic missiles in a hypothetical future scenario against Pakistan. The same strategic objective can be easily and cheaply achieved using India’s existing inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles.
The distance a missile travels from India to China is longer than the distance from India to Pakistan, but even in this case hypersonic missiles cannot significantly reduce arrival time. Assuming that India launches an Agni-V ballistic missile from a strategic base in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal, it could reach the cities of Beijing (about 4,000 km) and Shanghai (about 3,750 km) in about 20 minutes. . Similarly, Agni III could reach other major cities such as Guangzhou (about 2,700 km) and Wuhan (about 2,925 km) from its base on Wheeler Island in about 13 minutes. Even if in the future the Indian startup mentioned above succeeds in developing an HGV-202F designed for hypersonic speeds (i.e. Mach 10 to 20), it will not have enough meaningful time to significantly change the strategic calculations. It won’t be possible to compress it. Nevertheless, given the ability of China’s ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems to intercept India’s existing missiles, future Indian maneuverable hypersonic weapons are likely to evade interception and cost Such development may be justified. Moreover, such hypersonic capabilities could strengthen India’s nuclear deterrent against China and increase New Delhi’s global prestige.
Therefore, the concern about India’s hypersonic missile development from Pakistan’s perspective is that this technological advance could accelerate New Delhi’s modernization and influence its strategic actions. Since the outright nuclearization of South Asia in 1998, relations between India and Pakistan have remained fairly stable strategically, as both countries had mutual vulnerability in ballistic missiles, despite some deterioration of the “nuclear taboo”. I have kept it that way. However, Pakistan has perceived India’s exploration of BMD system development in the early 2000s and its adaptation in the subsequent decade as destabilizing. In a future worst-case scenario, Islamabad believes that the addition of hypersonic weapons will incentivize India to launch a large-scale decapitation first strike, confident that its BMD system will protect against retaliation from Pakistan’s remaining nuclear forces. It may be considered that However, this requires India’s massive military investment in Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), first-strike capability with hundreds of precision ballistic and cruise missiles, and a 100 percent probability of kill with BMD systems. becomes. Given India’s challenges to military modernization and perceived threat from China, this is unlikely to happen in the near future.
Therefore, the concern about India’s hypersonic missile development from Pakistan’s perspective is that this technological advance could accelerate New Delhi’s modernization and influence its strategic actions.
Hypersonic development remains overrated
Pakistani policymakers do not anticipate a large-scale pre-emptive strike from India absent a prior crisis, and Pakistan has no BMD and no desire to develop maneuverable hypersonic missiles. Not stated. The nuclear policy of full-spectrum deterrence under the provision of credible minimum deterrence focuses on the development of a triad that covers all of India from 60 km to 2,750 km, despite India’s existing BMD system. are. Much of Pakistan’s missile development over the past two decades has involved the use of the MIRV-capable Ababil ballistic missile, the Babar and Raad air-launched cruise missile series, and the recently developed Fatah series to evade or evade Indian missile defenses. The focus has been on overwhelming. – Launch of rocket systems. As a result, Pakistan’s strategic policymakers widely feel that Islamabad does not need to seek technological retaliation with New Delhi, especially given its growing economic asymmetry with India.
In the future, as hypersonic weapons become more widespread, Pakistan may be tempted to follow suit. Future cooperation between China and Pakistan cannot be completely ruled out unless China voluntarily complies with the Missile Technology Control Regime and the United States does not challenge sanctions against Islamabad. However, in the short term, developing these weapons remains economically unviable and strategically unattractive for Pakistan. In South Asia, India and China are likely to continue pursuing the introduction of hypersonic missiles to increase their relative military prestige. Meanwhile, Pakistan will continue to rely on nuclear weapons, further developing reliable second-strike capabilities, and improving the accuracy and maneuverability of its conventional missiles.
Also read: Agni-V: South Asia’s new MIRV race
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Image 1: Government of India (via Wikimedia Commons)
Image 2: Russian Presidential Press Information Service (via Wikimedia Commons)
