What really happened?
The Syrian president was betrayed by his close aides and allies. Mistaking the situation after the 2017 victory in Aleppo, Russian guarantees, coupled with Erdogan’s promise to prevent attacks on Syrian military positions, prevented the Syrian army from pursuing the extremist group into Idlib province. .
Believing he had won the war, President Assad shifted his focus from reconciliation and addressing the needs of his people. Instead, his supporters collaborated with warlords to exploit the masses and worsen an already dire economic situation. This alienated him from his grassroots supporters. He disbanded supporting militias, reduced the presence of Iranian and Hezbollah forces, and relied on Arab states to reintegrate into the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Russia was not happy with his stubborn attitude and refusal to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. As the militant group marched into Aleppo fully armed and equipped with drones, with Turkish and US surveillance and GPS support, many Syrian military officers went missing and were taken by Russian forces, while junior officers He abandoned his position and ordered his soldiers to take up positions. They bring back their weapons and take off their military uniforms, further accelerating the collapse of the regime.
President Erdoğan was similarly caught off guard by the rapid decline of the Syrian regime. He deceived Russia by talking about a strategy to give extremist groups access to Aleppo in order to pressure Assad to come to the table to negotiate terms for Turkey’s partition of Syria. However, the situation took an unexpected turn. Erdogan’s allies Israel and the United States pursued other plans, while Russian troops withdrew from their positions and allowed the insurgents to advance toward Aleppo. They supported and financed mercenaries marching towards the capital, Damascus. Russia refused to provide any support to President Assad in the absence of ground forces, read the situation carefully, and gave Tehran permission to send air forces because the US threatened the Iraqi government not to allow troops to pass through to help. I didn’t give it. Reliable sources say Assad was removed at gunpoint and is under house arrest in Russia. Russian guards at the presidential palace did not allow Assad to address the military or his own people and forcibly removed him from the palace at gunpoint without prior notice, which even his son Hafez was unaware of. . Not even his brother Maher, and even his own security guard. He was reportedly transferred to the Hmeimim Russian air base in Latakia, then deported to Moscow with his son and close aides, who later joined him, and placed under house arrest.
Arab and Islamic Spring – Türkiye’s role
When the Arab Spring began thousands of miles away in Tunisia in 2011, Turkey was already bracing for major geopolitical changes. Months before the wave of regime change reached Damascus, Turkish authorities were busy building tent camps near the Syrian border. Ostensibly, these camps were designed to shelter refugees fleeing conflict, but in retrospect they suggested a calculated strategy to reshape the Syrian regime. The goal appeared to be to overthrow the Syrian government and replace it with a so-called “moderate Islamic” regime, one that speaks moderately in public but harbors secret extremist tendencies.
Türkiye’s ambitions in Syria were deeply rooted in both ideology and regional strategy. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, envisioned the influence of the new Ottoman Empire spreading throughout the Levant. The Turkish government sought to position itself as a central figure in the Middle East’s transformation by collaborating with Islamist groups and capitalizing on the turmoil of the Arab Spring.
Syria conflict: proxy for regional ambitions
Fourteen years later, Syria is proving the devastating consequences of foreign interference and regional power struggles. Turkish factories have reportedly produced more than 500,000 new Syrian flags symbolizing the envisioned state under Turkish influence. Turkish flags were raised in major Syrian cities such as Damascus and Aleppo, marking a major shift in sovereignty and ushering in a new era under Erdogan’s leadership.
This transformation could not be achieved through traditional diplomacy or soft power alone. This involved complex coordination with extremist forces, including extremist groups. Current Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan played a central role in this strategy. Fidan, a close ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and former head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency (MIT), became a central figure in Turkey’s covert operations in Syria.
From Afghanistan to Syria: Parallels of proxy wars
The pattern of foreign intervention in Syria mirrors that in Afghanistan, where decades of conflict have transformed Syria into a proxy battleground for competing global and regional powers. In Afghanistan, the 1979 Soviet invasion sparked a U.S.-backed resistance movement that eventually led to the birth of the Taliban. Similarly, in the Syrian war, outside forces financed and provided armed groups, some of which evolved into extremist groups such as ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Syria has tended to replicate the Taliban’s approach, promoting extremism and fundamentalism under a reinterpreted concept of Islam, often imposed by force.
Both conflicts reveal a worrying trend of external powers exploiting domestic instability to further their geopolitical ambitions. In Afghanistan, the United States and its allies justified a prolonged military intervention under the pretext of fighting terrorism and promoting democracy. In Syria, promoting regime change served as a cover for foreign agendas.
Connection with Jolani and Symbolism of Kashiun
This is one of the most symbolic moments of Türkiye’s dominance in Syria. Hakan Fidan was reportedly seen drinking tea alongside HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani on Mount Qasiun, overlooking Damascus. This image has a deep meaning. A historic vantage point overlooking the Syrian capital, Mount Qasiun is not just a physical location, but also a symbolic landmark of sovereignty. By asserting their presence in Syria, Turkey and its allies have sent a clear message about their intention to reshape Syria’s political landscape.
This law also provided a direct connection to the Umayyad Dynasty, which had its capital in Damascus. President Erdoğan’s vision for a new Ottoman Empire incorporates these historical references, including positioning Turkey as the inheritor of Islamic leadership and regional control. The image of Qasiun was therefore a calculated move to evoke the glory of empires of the past while asserting contemporary influence.
the price of ambition
But this ambitious project came at a staggering cost. Syria has been devastated by years of war, leaving hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced. The country’s infrastructure is in ruins and its social fabric is torn apart. In many ways, Syria has been handed over to “designated terrorist groups” acting as agents of vested states. These groups serve the geopolitical aims of those who seek military intervention under the guise of protecting minorities.
This mirrors similar interventions in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, where the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle was invoked. In Syria, calls for protection could increase if sectarian violence and mercenary targeting of minorities increases. However, such rhetoric often serves as a pretext for promoting the interests of external forces. Otherwise, there is no explanation for making the “New Syria” a pilgrimage site for foreign dignitaries to pay homage to a group of leaders who are considered terrorists under UN Security Council resolutions.
Humanitarian crisis and displacement
The civilian toll in both Afghanistan and Syria is staggering. Millions of people are displaced within and outside the country, creating one of the largest refugee crises in modern history. Destruction of infrastructure, loss of livelihoods, and erosion of cultural heritage have left indelible scars on both countries.
The Turkish government currently faces growing concerns about the long-term fallout of the Syrian conflict, especially as the United States and Israel are working together to overthrow the Syrian regime and support the establishment of an independent Kurdish enclave in Syria. I am doing it. This development poses a serious threat to Turkey’s security and sovereignty, and could have potentially dangerous consequences for the region if the conflict between Tel Aviv and Tel Aviv escalates over who will control more territory in Syria. be. Kurdish dreams of establishing an independent enclave in Syria come despite pressure on Turkey to not let the Syrian army take them in, and instead to settle and grant them more autonomy. It probably won’t happen for the time being. The Turkish government is adamant that it will not allow this to happen, but it will taste its own poison in the coming years.
conclusion
Trends in the Middle East, including military and intelligence cooperation, realigned alliances, and sectarian conflicts, support the argument that Israel, Turkey, and Azerbaijan may work together to counter Iran. This cooperation is consistent with the two countries’ common interests and with outside powers’ broader strategy to weaken Iran’s influence.
From Afghanistan to “Suriyastan,” patterns of intervention, proxy wars, and ideological ambitions reveal worrying trends. The Arab Spring’s promise of democratic change was quickly overshadowed by competing interests. Turkey’s neo-Ottoman vision leaves deep marks on Syria’s course, raising questions about sovereignty and stability in the Middle East. There is a strong consensus among Arab capitals that they do not recognize the presence of Islamic State in Syria. Egypt will be the next target for Israel and the US to seize the Suez Canal, followed by Jordan as an alternative homeland for Palestinians who will also be expelled from Gaza and the West Bank.
A key objective of deploying large numbers of trained and brainwashed Islamists is to target and kill Syria’s minorities, and to infiltrate communities of moderate Islamic believers whose beliefs do not align with medieval ideology. there were. Their ultimate goal was to create an Islamic state with its own understanding of Islam as a base from which to advance a broader agenda that would spread from Mauritania in West Africa to northwestern China’s Xinjiang region and cause civil war, chaos, and instability. is to be established in Syria. Rather than serving a cause.
The legacies of Afghanistan and Syria serve as a wake-up call about the dangers of foreign interference and exploitation of vulnerable countries. As more than a decade of conflict comes to an end, the lasting impact on the lives of millions of people will remain a stark reminder of the human cost of geopolitical ambition.
Dr. Wayer Awad is a senior journalist and West Asia strategist.
