President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement that the US will pursue a national missile defense system like the Iron Dome has acquired a page from Ronald Reagan’s “Star Wars” initiative decades ago.
Just like Reagan’s never-bearing plan for a system of “intercepting and destroying strategic ballistic missiles before reaching our soil or allies,” Trump’s “Iron Dome.” The vision for “For America” is drastic and challenging.
It will face the same kind of obstacles that he faced in 1983 with Reagan, who speculated that “may not be achieved by the end of this century.”
Nevertheless, given the threats and opportunities created by innovative advances in technology and the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, the United States has no choice but to embrace what is rapidly becoming an existential challenge. .
How can I do it?
The idea of the “Iron Dome” is designed to reflect the highly effective Israeli US missile defense system that has long defended the Israeli population. But Trump’s executive order calls on the Pentagon to create something much more complicated than the current Israeli iron dome.
This new system uses the system approach of a system that stymie enemy ballistic missiles, along with defeating both enemy and cruise missiles. It highlights space-based systems of both sensors (already existing) and actual interceptors, similar to the Reagan system from 40 years ago.
From a threat perspective, the timing is certainly correct. Both China and Russia have built extremely dangerous, unstable and deadly high-pitched cruise missiles due to traditional attacks or nuclear strikes, far faster than today’s systems. I’ve moved many times.
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It can also be operated at speed, making it almost impossible to hit with the current system. The technical challenges are breathtaking. What are the possibilities for success? And what new systems may contribute to a successful iron dome that can truly protect America?
I know the world of air defense very well. Throughout my long naval career, I worked for cruisers and destroyers with the best anti-aircraft warship in the world, the proud Aegis Air Defense System (the Greek “shield”).
What I’ve learned is how difficult it is to design, build, train and operate a single air defense system on a dedicated ship with hundreds of hand-selected crew members in the relatively simple tactical environment of being at sea. That’s what it means. , infrastructure or collateral damage targets to consider.
Much later in my career, when I was NATO’s best alliance commander, I was involved in overseeing cooperation with the US and the military. I have seen the world’s best Israelis in air defense struggle to operate multi-layered, complex systems with vulnerable civilians in and around major cities.
In addition to the iron dome, they had to integrate long-range systems (David’s Sling and Arrow) and responded to satellite intelligence (many of which was sourced from the US).
So I have a healthy respect for what the Department of Defense and the major defense contractors must take to create an effective system to protect the entire United States from such a wide range of threats. I have it.
Three elements are essential to the success of the new iron dome.
The first is the ability to have space-based sensors and interceptors. Without a true “God’s Eye” view of the entire air, sea and land space, effective defense is not possible.
Similar to Reagan’s plans, such space-based systems are challenged from a weapons management perspective. Other countries correctly see them as unstable and escalating.
Space-based sensors are already mostly in place. As with Star Wars, the real challenge is to base its effective interceptors on space.
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The second important factor is artificial intelligence. The ability to use AI to knit space sensors and interceptors using land-based air defense systems (Aegis Ashore, ground interceptors, and other current technologies).
Given the rapid advances in AI, this would probably be a reasonably good bet on success.
The third element that is ultimately the most difficult to design, build and implement is lasers, a new way to destroy incoming missiles. The air defense community has been pursuing this Cimara for decades.
The complaint of Air Force defenders is that they often don’t have enough defensive missiles. Witness the challenges of the US Navy in fighting relatively primitive Footy missiles and drones off the coast of the Red Sea.
The promise of lasers is simple. High-powered beams of light are a way to destroy enemy systems. You will not run out of missiles, and your system will move at light speeds much faster than traditional protective missiles.
However, despite the recent naval success in the naval system, the technical challenges remain extremely high.
Lasers feel they are the air defense weapons of the future…forever. This seems to be the most challenging and farthest of the three elements of the system.
However, it is difficult to imagine a truly effective iron dome system without laser components, given the possibility that it could overwhelm and exhaust traditional air defense missiles without laser components.
All of these cost a huge amount of money. DOD’s missile defense agency is responsible for responding to the president’s executive order.
They are instructed to provide a comprehensive architecture within 60 days. This is the speed of light in the terms of the US defense contract.
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On February 18th, the first Iron Dome “Industry Day” brings together defense companies to begin what will certainly be a very challenging process.
The costs certainly range in the thousands of dollars each year, but they can congestion of another important defence spending.
However, its price tag should be weighed against the cost of potential losses of American life and treasures that missile shields effective for the United States can prevent.
Stavridis is the dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is on the boards of Aon, Fortinet and Ankura Consulting Group and advises Shield Capital, a company investing in the cybersecurity sector.
