According to estimates by the Polish news outlet Defense24, Russia may have been able to deliver a total of 24 combat aircraft in 2024. Russia
has two families of fighter jets
in production, the new Sukhoi Su-57
Felon and the Su-27 Flanker
family of jets that includes the Su-30SM, the Su-34, and the Su-35. It appears that not only is
Russia unable to produce enough surplus fighter jets for export
, but it is also not producing enough jets to cover its own losses over that period.
Russia’s estimated 2024 fighter jet losses
Defense24 estimates that in 2024 Russia suffered a total of 23 irretrievable losses (including from mishaps, as a loss is a loss). This is likely a conservative figure, as at least a portion of the damaged aircraft may prove to be economically irretrievable (some aircraft may then be cannibalized for parts).
According to Defense24, irretrievable losses in Russian fixed-wing combat aircraft include:
2 Tu-22M3 strategic bombers (1 damaged, 1 destroyed)
1 Tu-160M strategic bomber (damaged)
2 MiG-31 interceptors (destroyed)
19 Su-34 (10 damaged, 9 destroyed)
2 Su-35S fighters (destroyed)
1 Su-30 fighter (destroyed)
4 Su-27 fighters (1 damaged, 3 destroyed)
4 Su-25 close air support fighter (destroyed)
1 Su-57 5th-generation fighter (damaged)
1 Su-24 fighter-bomber (damaged)
It should be stressed that there is a degree of uncertainty when estimating aircraft losses. While many damaged and destroyed aircraft are visible from satellite imagery, many are not. Sometimes impacted hangars are visible from satellite imagery, but it is sometimes impossible to know if there was an aircraft in it at the time of the impact. It can also be very difficult to assess the amount of damage an airframe has incurred based solely on satellite imagery.
Notable other aviation losses include two rare A-50U AWACS aircraft and
an experimental/newly in service S-70 Okhotnik heavy combat loyal wingman drone
(reportedly destroyed by its own Su-57 Felon fighter jet). A Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft was also lost. In April 2024, US Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli stated Russia had lost around 10% of its fleet in the conflict up to that point.
Russia’s fighter jet production
According to Defense24 estimates, Russia took delivery of around 27 fighter jets in the year (slightly more than its 2023 estimate when the service received around 24 jets). The publication that other analysts made more optimistic assumptions on the production of the troubled Su-57 Felon with Russia taking delivery of 30 fighter jets in 2022 and 32 in 2023.
In August 2024,
Simple Flying reported that Russia is believed to have delivered 22 to 26 combat aircraft
in 2022 and 29 to 50 combat aircraft in 2023.
Russian fighter jet production in 2024:
Su-34M:
10
Su-35S:
6
Su-57:
6
Su-30:
2
Total:
24
It also appears that Russia has been unable to ramp up production of its self-vaunted Su-57 Felon. It seems that sanctions
are severely impeding Russia’s ability to scale up production (it is known the jet has many Western-sourced components). That said, the Russian-friendly website, Military Watch Magazine, stated 20 Su-57 Felons had been delivered in 2024.
Estimated Russian 2023 fighter jet production in 2023:
Fighter jets:
Defense24 estimate:
Binkov estimate:
IISS estimate:
Su-34M:
6
8-10
6+
Su-35S:
10
8-10
10
Su-57:
11
8-11
unknown
Su-30:
4
4-8
2
Total:
31
29-50
18+
Overall, it seems that Russia is able to replace the losses incurred by its Su-27 Flanker family of aircraft. At the same time, it is slowly growing its Su-57 fleet.
Estimated Russian 2022 fighter jet production in 2022:
Fighter jets:
Defense24 estimate:
Binkov estimate:
Su-34M:
10
8-10
Su-35S:
7
3
Su-57:
8
6
Su-30:
4
4-6
Total:
29
22-26
Also worthy to note is that Russia has put its old Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack back into production. This jet is believed to be delivered at a rate of around 1 to 2 per year, with half being refurbished airframes and half being new builds. These have been excluded from the lists of fighter jet production.
Something else to keep in mind is that it is also possible that Russia is reactivating old airframes (this is something Ukraine is known to be doing, including with its Su-24 Fencer fighter bomber).
Related
Russian Air Force Only Has A Few Su-57 Felons And Can’t Build More Quickly
Besides crashes, a poor radar cross-section, and zero exports, it seems the Su-57 Felon’s many woes include declining production rates in 2024.
A poor third place
These numbers would mean that sanctions have not stopped Russia from being able to produce fighter jets, but it also means Russia can’t ramp up production either. It also implies that Russia’s ability to deliver fighter jets is comparable to that of France and around 10-20% of China’s annual fighter jet production.
For comparison, Boeing delivered 25 fighter jets in 2024 (F-15EXs and F/A-18 Super Hornets), while Lockheed delivered 110 F-35s and perhaps 19-21 F-16s. This means the US industry has delivered a total of 155 fighter jets of all types (including for export). Estimates for
Chinese production are as high as 250 fighter jets
(with a large margin of uncertainty).
Meanwhile, France managed to deliver 21 Dassault Rafale fighter jets (up from just 13 in 2023). Dassault is talking about increasing production further, which means that if Russia’s production continues to stagnate, it may fall behind France in fighter jet deliveries in 2025.
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The murky affair of exports
It is unclear how many of these jets were exported. While most countries no longer buy Russian fighter jets any more (mostly due to the passage of the US 2017 CAASTA Act sanctioning countries that purchase Russian jets). However, a few countries (typically countries already sanctioned by the United States) do purchase Russian fighter jets.
In 2024, it was reported that Russia delivered the final two export variant Sukhoi Su-30s to Mynamar in 2024 (Myanmar ordered a total of six Flankers). The contract had been signed in 2018, and the previous four had been delivered in 2022 or 2023.
Meanwhile, Russia appears set to start delivering Su-30S fighter jets to Iran (it is estimated that Iran may be purchasing 24 of them). However, these are believed to have been first built for Egypt (Egypt canceled the deal under pressure from
the United States after the passage of the CAASTA Act
). While the Flanker is currently out of production in India, India produces its own Su-30s domestically under license, so that wouldn’t appear in estimates for Russian fighter jet production anyway.
This article compares estimates compiled from Defense24, Binkov, and IISS. It is possible some estimates only include deliveries to the Russian Air Force (excluding exports), while others may include all Russian production (including exports). Exports appear to be minimal but would affect the numbers by at least two per year.
Seperately, in 2024, Russia announced it had finally found a country willing to purchase the jet. While the country wasn’t named, it is widely thought to be Algeria.
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Obosolence & wear and tear likely biggest drives of losses
While it may appear Russia is more or less replacing its losses, this isn’t the case. It is not enough to simply replace independently-confirmed losses one-for-one. This is also because hundreds of Russian fighter jets date from the Cold War and are wearing out or otherwise becoming obsolote and retired. As time has gone on, it appears Russia has withdrawn many of its older Su-27s and Su-24s from frontline service (Russia has also retired many of these tired old airframes).
It should also be noted that
Soviet/Russian fighter jets are not nearly as durable as their American counterparts
. These jets uniformly have far fewer service life flight hours and can’t be extended as much as their American counterparts. The higher tempo of operations means these jets will approach the end of their lives much faster.
Another factor is that Russia is typically using its newest and best jets at the front; this means that losses tend to be those with the most hours left on the clock.
All this is to say, unless Russia is putting large numbers of old airframes back into service, then Russia’s fleet of usable fighter jets likely decreased significantly in 2024 (which is
why Defense News estimated in 2024 that the Russian Air Force’s fleet of fighter jets could be down around 25%
compared to pre-2022 levels).
Better than commercial aircraft
Russia’s fighter jet deliveries are far better than deliveries of its commercial aircraft (including the MC-21, Superjet, and Tu-14). Commerical passenger aircraft deliveries since February 2022 stand at zero (apart from seven Superjets assembled with stockpiled pre-sanction components). This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as around 60–70% of the components of the MC-21 and 80–90% of the components of the Superjet need to be import-substituted with domestic Russian-made components. This is almost building a new jet.
Photo: UAC
Russia plans to deliver 1,000 passenger aircraft between 2022 and 2030, but three years into that timetable none delivered (not even a Tu-214). The plan is looking ever more like a pipedream. The Russian news outlet Kommersant recently reported what most observers were already aware of. Namely,
the civilian aviation industry is competing for infinite resources with the military aviation sector
and Russia is currently prioritizing the needs of the military.
Russia’s fighter jet fleet likely contracted last year
In conclusion, Russia appears to be producing enough fighter jets to replace observed irreplaceable losses. However, it is not replacing enough to cover the imputed losses not observed, and it is not nearly enough to keep up with obsolescence and airframes aging out of service. This likely means Russia’s tactical fighter jet fleet continued to contract in 2024.
