Republicans hold a slim Senate majority in 2026, but Democrats still face an uphill battle to maintain control of the chamber.
Democrats need to win a net four seats to take control of the Senate within two years. There are 20 Republicans and 13 Democrats who are up for re-election in the upcoming midterm elections, and many of these Republicans are running in red states.
Only one Republican senator is running, Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, which Vice President Kamala Harris won in November, but two Democrats are running in states won by President-elect Donald Trump (Georgia Jon Ossoff of Michigan and Gary Peters of Michigan are seeking re-election. .
This class of senators will face a different political environment than the last election in 2020, when they ran in a presidential election year with historic turnout. And the environment could be very different from 2014, when some of these Republicans were first elected to the Senate in the red wave. The upcoming 2026 election could be trickier for Republicans, as the president’s party has historically struggled in midterm elections.
Another factor that could shake up the Senate map is whether longtime senators like outgoing Republican leader Sen. Mitch McConnell decide to retire. Mr. McConnell, 82, has not yet said whether he will run again in ruby-hued Kentucky, but he has vowed to serve out his current term.
As the Senate race takes shape, here are the key races to keep an eye on.
top targets
The core of the 2026 battleground map is made up of three senators seeking reelection in states that supported the opposition in this year’s presidential election, making them top targets heading into the midterm elections.
Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state that Harris won in November. Collins has indicated she intends to run for a sixth term, and despite Maine’s blue hue, she has been difficult to defeat so far.
In 2020, Collins defeated former state House Speaker Sarah Gideon by 9 points, a state Joe Biden also won by 9 points. According to the Portland Press Herald, Democratic Gov. Janet Mills cannot run again due to term limits, but she has not ruled out running for Collins.
Meanwhile, two Democratic senators are seeking re-election in states that Trump won in November.
Peters is no stranger to tough races in Michigan, having just served as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the second time. Trump lost the state by nearly 3 points in 2020, but carried the state by 1 point in November. That same year, Peters won a second term, defeating incumbent Republican Rep. John James by nearly two points.
Ossoff is running for a second term in Georgia, which Trump won this year by a two-point margin. On January 5, 2021, Ossoff narrowly defeated then-Republican Sen. David Perdue, who had been nominated by President Trump to be ambassador to China, in a closely contested Senate runoff election.
Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp cannot run for governor again due to term limits, but he could be a candidate for the Senate. Kemp told Fox News last month that while he is focused on leading the Republican Governors Association, he is trying to “keep all doors open.”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R.N.C.) is expected to be another top Democratic target as he seeks reelection in the battleground state, which President Trump won by 3 points. Tillis has won each of his two Senate races by less than two points.
Outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper told WSOC-TV that a Senate run is “on the table,” but he hasn’t decided whether to run yet. Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel also told Bloomberg that he is likely to formally announce his Senate run in February, as he did not seek re-election in the district.
Preliminary match
Some Republicans could face primary battles with challengers aligned with Trump, as Trump’s allies threaten to run against senators who do not support Trump’s Cabinet picks or the president-elect’s policies. be.
Major speculation is already swirling around Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, who is proceeding to confirm President Trump’s Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, another Trump ally, has also indicated he may challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
One Senate Republican is already a two-term primary challenger, Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy. He was one of three Republican senators who remained in the chamber after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol and voted to convict President Trump on the impeachment charges. did.
Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming, who served as a lawmaker during the first Trump administration, filed a challenge to Cassidy earlier this month, citing the impeachment resolution and claiming that Cassidy “betrayed the people of Louisiana.” started.
Cassidy’s main challenge in the Ruby Red state will be the primary. And it remains to be seen whether Mr. Trump, who won Louisiana by 22 points in November, will try to defeat Mr. Cassidy and boost his primary challenger.
Other battlefields
Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina are the only permanent battleground states that will hold Senate races in 2026, and each party will need to reach deep into the other’s base to win more seats. .
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, RS.C., told Fox News that Republicans could “expand the map” by targeting New Hampshire and Virginia.
Scott also said Republicans could look to New Mexico and Minnesota “if they have to push themselves,” noting that Trump has improved margins in those states. This year, Harris led New Mexico State by six points and Minnesota by four points.
According to Axios, incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (DN.Y.) has not yet named a new DSCC chair, but Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (DN.Y.) is expected to take the position. has been done.
But Democrats could turn to Senate seats they also contested in 2020, such as Iowa and Texas. Trump won both states by about 13 percentage points this year, but four years ago he won both states by single digits. Mr. Ernst and Mr. Cornyn won reelection by seven and 10 points, respectively, in the 2020 election, but could face a tougher political environment in a midterm election year.
upcoming special election
President Trump’s inauguration is expected to result in two resignations in the Senate, which will be filled first by appointment by the governor and then by special election in 2026.
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) left the Senate to become President Trump’s vice president, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida was nominated to be President Trump’s secretary of state.
Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine plans to elect a replacement for Vance in the Senate, with a special election to fill the final two years of Vance’s term in 2026, as well as other statewide and other elections. Several elected members are expected to be elected.
If Rubio is confirmed, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis would also appoint a successor and a special election would be held in 2026 for the final two years of Rubio’s term. In a post in X magazine in November, DeSantis said he had “already received strong interest from several candidates” and that he would likely make a decision in early January.
Both states have swung heavily toward Republicans in recent elections, but Democrats may be eyeing newcomers who they think could swing the states in a more favorable Democratic year.
In Ohio, for example, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has not ruled out running for Harris’ seat after Vance ran against Harris this year and lost reelection.
