In a small roundtable session with AMD executives at CES 2025 in Las Vegas, we spoke to the company about its flagship gaming-optimized Ryzen 7 9800X3D, the undisputed best gaming CPU to date. ) and asked for details about the continuing shortage and when we can expect supplies. improve. AMD attributed this to unprecedented demand, noting that Intel’s “terrible” product, also known as Arrow Lake, has led to a significant increase in demand, far exceeding initial expectations. At another roundtable, I also had the opportunity to ask Intel about its plans to fight back against AMD’s dominant 3D V-cache processors.
AMD executive Frank Azor quipped, “We knew we made great parts, but we didn’t know that our competitor (Intel) was making terrible parts.” “So the demand was a little bit higher than we expected.”
It’s no secret that Intel’s Arrow Lake offered impressive gaming performance at launch. The company promised a “fix” for the issue, and recently tested the full patch on multiple systems. The patch did no good (on at least two motherboards), and the new Windows revisions required for the fix further benefited competing processors, leaving Intel’s Arrow Lake in an even more competitive position than it was at launch. It turns out it got worse. The test will be published soon.
All of this means Intel’s competitiveness is much lower than AMD’s expectations. This compounded the longer-than-usual lead times for building the X3D processor. Building the latest high-end processors requires long lead times, so forecasting demand is important. With demand now far exceeding initial production targets, the company is ramping up production, but it will take time for it to reach the retail market.
“We are increasing our manufacturing capacity for X3D parts, monthly and quarterly production, which will be the 7000 (series) and 9000 X3D numbers,” AMD executive David McAfee said. “It’s incredible how much we’ve grown beyond plan. I would say the demand for the 9800X3D and 7800X3D has been unprecedented. So the demand is higher than ever.”
“When you manufacture traditional semiconductors, it basically takes 12 to 13 weeks from the time you start making the wafer to the time you get the product out the other side of the machine,” McAfee explained. “It takes longer than a quarter period (three months) for these products to really ramp up in production because the stacking process[of 3D V-cache]makes it take longer. We are working very hard to keep up with demand.”As you look through the first half of this year, you’ll see that we continue to ramp up production of X3D. There’s no doubt that X3D is a much more important part of our CPU portfolio than I thought it would be. I predicted it a year ago. And we believe this trend will continue in the future, and we are increasing our production capacity to ensure we can keep up with demand for as long as our customers require X3D parts. ”
McAfee said there is no specific component or part of the production flow that is creating the bottleneck.
“The problem is that there is a lead time to build the CCD wafer, the cache wafer, and then the subsequent stacking process separately, which adds significant time, which is a critical timeline. Building an X3D product I’m talking about.
McAfee also said the new 99x0X3D products won’t help drive demand, as customers are choosing 8-core X3D parts over higher-core X3D models by a 10-to-1 ratio.
“If you look at our 7000X3D products historically, the 70800X3D has been by far the largest volume part in that product stack. But the truth is, if you’re really a creator, you’ll probably still buy the 9950X. It doesn’t contribute to the creator’s workload at all (…) It’s like a percentage. Using X3D improves performance,” McAfee said.
“In my opinion, there will be some demand for higher core count products in the 9000 series, but it will still be a 10:1 or better for 8-core X3D parts. Just great for pure gamers. It’s a game element, and there’s nothing else like it,” he concluded.
So now it’s a waiting game. AMD is ramping up production, but it will be a while before the shiny new 9800X3D chips hit the market in droves. By the time more units arrive, the new 9950X3D and 9900X3D will also be on store shelves.
As for Intel, they simply couldn’t keep up with AMD’s 3D V-Cache technology. And it was for a long time. I talked about Intel and its plans at another roundtable.
“AMD has been using stacked 3D V-Cache ” I said. “Intel, at least as far as it can be seen from the outside, is not really addressing it at all. This is where AMD chooses to deploy its technology and its high-margin premium tier. “You’re essentially handing over the gaming segment to AMD. Are you considering responding to this?” I asked.
“Our goal is to have products that demonstrate leadership in all areas, and we’re not talking about unannounced products,” said Jim Johnson, Intel’s corporate vice president and general manager of client engineering.
With no official announcements about faster technology from Intel, and no indication through leaks or other industry buzz that Intel is developing new competing technology, AMD will continue to dominate the global gaming CPU market in 2025. There is no doubt that it will continue to dominate. For now, it’s AMD’s gaming CPU. That’s exactly what Intel is living in.
