Chris Miller, professor of international studies and author of the global bestseller “Chip Wars: The Battle for the World’s Most Critical Technology,” places a strategic focus on diversifying global innovation away from the establishment. This will offer India the greatest opportunity to grow in global relevance, he said. In an interview with the Mint, he talked about the history of Tufts University in the United States.
Regarding the opportunity for India to join the global semiconductor supply chain, which is largely dominated by Taiwan and the United States, Miller said one of the key strategies policymakers should adopt is to rather close the gap in the global supply chain. He said incentives to fill would be strategically targeted. Rather than planning for “self-sufficiency” as a geopolitical and technological strategy.
“We need to be very wary of the politicized terminology of ‘self-sufficiency’ in semiconductors and electronics. No country in the world is self-sufficient, even China, which claims to be self-sufficient. Instead, we rely on other parts of the world for things like tools and chemicals,” Miller said.
To what extent can India benefit?
Mr. Miller emphasized this, further emphasizing that China’s self-interested foreign strategy is “aggressive and bellicose,” but also noted that it creates scope for India to benefit.
“Diversifying the global technology supply chain around China-related threats and risks is the right path. For India looking to play a bigger role, it makes sense to build the technology supply chain in India.” “It’s important to focus on specific parts of the chain and be specific. Diversification is therefore the right approach for public policy to truly frame what is achievable,” he said. Ta.
The professor was in India earlier this week as a speaker at a chip design conference in Bangalore. Speaking to Mint on the sidelines, Miller highlighted India’s progress towards emerging as a major participant in the global technology ecosystem in the future. He said two such examples can be seen in a US semiconductor company that has set up a chip design office in Bangalore and in the “rapidly emerging smartphone supply chain” in Tamil Nadu.
All this gives India ample scope to become a major stakeholder in the global semiconductor and electronics ecosystem, Miller said. “Is there room for India in the global semiconductor supply chain? Absolutely. To take advantage of this, India needs to be strategic and choose which segments to focus on. And why? There also needs to be a well-written explanation of how India is best suited to compete in a particular segment.”
Mr. Miller highlighted the potential for growth in the global semiconductor industry in the second half of this decade and said global geopolitical changes leading to a new order in the semiconductor ecosystem could be where India could benefit. He added that it would be.
“It is important to note that chip manufacturing is one bit, but in addition to this, most of the value is actually on the chip design side of the supply chain. “We need to consider the entire supply chain holistically, and recognize that manufacturing is just one part of it, and that India already has strong competitiveness in areas such as design, and we need to utilize this as appropriate,” he said. Ta.
new contributor
In October, market researcher and consultant Gartner predicted that global semiconductor sales would rise 14% annually to $717 billion. By 2030, this number is expected to easily exceed $1 trillion. India is a new contributor in this area, but is likely to account for revenue by 2030. The Mint reported in September that the Union government was planning to inject $15 billion in new incentives to strengthen the domestic semiconductor supply chain. . The latter follows a $10 billion chip incentive in 2021 that led domestic conglomerate subsidiary Tata Electronics to build an $11 billion chip manufacturing plant (fab) in Gujarat.
The plant has set a tentative schedule for first production at the end of 2026.
India also accounts for a quarter of the world’s chip design engineers and has attracted investment from U.S. chipmakers such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials and Lam Research. However, an incentive program linked to design has not yet been introduced.
Last month, the Mint also reported on the IT Ministry’s $3 billion electronics incentive program to boost domestic electronics research and component manufacturing.
Miller emphasized that the wave of politicization in the chip industry is likely to further accelerate these efforts.
“A new wave of politicization of the technology industry began about a decade ago, with China gaining greater stakes in the global technology industry through a series of aggressive non-market practices. Coupled with assertive and combative foreign policies, the situation has worsened. Worryingly, the situation is unlikely to change, with deeply entrenched political factors leading to governments adapting their foreign policies accordingly. We need to come up with a plan.”
correct target
Miller also added that India is right not to target the top of the semiconductor value chain and instead focus on ramping up the more accessible parts of the industry.
“India is likely to struggle further if countries such as China, the US and South Korea, which have more advanced semiconductor ecosystems than India, cannot match Taiwan. This is not India’s fault, but Taiwan’s exceptional capabilities. Every economy, including Taiwan, is a semiconductor ecosystem. Building from the top does not work in this industry. The right balance of incentives is important and India’s incentives are based on the development of the electronics supply chain in Tamil Nadu. It’s already working,” he said.
Miller further emphasized the importance of strategic incentives similar to the programs India is currently pursuing, saying that incentives for multiple industries should be viewed together rather than separately to see the rewards. he added.
“The biggest example is the production of Apple iPhones in China. When production started there, only 0.7% of the revenue was earned domestically. Today, this figure has risen to 20%. , this is a huge leap forward. This was possible because the entire industrial supply chain evolved together, rather than in a single subset,” he said.
US dominance will be maintained
However, in terms of global development plans, Miller expects the US to still maintain its dominant position, but with new “big tech” companies displacing current market leaders such as Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta. I predict that there is a good chance that Wave of artificial intelligence.
“The EU plays no role in the development of AI today. Japan, another major leader, underperforms relative to GDP in terms of its role in advanced technologies. Taiwan has already China, on the other hand, is trying hard to compete, but is doing so from a position of relative weakness, taking on all major economies simultaneously. “It occupies a difficult position in global geopolitics. India is a fast-growing challenger in this regard,” he said.
“Considering all this, the US is likely to remain by a wide margin the most influential player in global technology at least through 2030. The influence of China and India is likely to increase. However, the influence of the EU and Japan may weaken.
Amid these changes, Miller said this year should be the equivalent of 1995 for the Internet economy at the turn of the millennium.
“Alphabet and Meta are deeply afraid of being replaced by such a future in the same way that Yahoo and Nokia disappeared. That’s why they are investing so much money into AI innovation themselves. For those searching for current information. The law is likely to change over the next few years, so it’s entirely possible that a new tech superpower will emerge. When that change happens, Google may not be the top company to make it happen. ” he added.
