Foreign policy trends in 2025 will be shaped by changes in great power relations. A new U.S. administration could upend relations with old allies in Europe and escalate conflict with China. In an uncertain world, India is playing a leading role in maintaining balance. The international community is keeping an eye on New Delhi’s efforts to return stability to relations with troubled China, as power relations between India and the United States regain the energy that marked Donald Trump’s first term. I’m wondering if. Despite this, the most important bilateral relationship in 2025 will be between India and Russia.
The strength of ties between New Delhi and Moscow is important for both countries. It touches on core mutual areas such as energy trade, joint technology development and strategic interests. Russia remains India’s most generous partner when it comes to supplying high-tech products. Although Western countries, particularly France and the United States, have relaxed trade rules with India on dual-use technology, there is still a long way to go before New Delhi’s undersea and long-range requirements are met by Western countries. This is where Moscow intervenes.
The international community is keeping an eye on New Delhi’s efforts to restore stability to its troubled relationship with China, as power relations between India and the United States regain the energy that marked Donald Trump’s first term. I’m wondering if.
What some of the heated commentary on India-Russia relations misses is that it is of great importance to the West as well. The BrahMos missile, jointly developed by India and Russia, was given to the Philippines to defeat China. In other words, it is only through India that Russian technology can be used to maintain a rules-based order. And it is precisely because it is India that Moscow does not grant China a veto over such sales.
This is just one example of the unique nature of India-Russia relations. The closeness between the two will take on deeper meaning in 2025, when it will be recognized as a global public good. Here are five ways this relationship is essential to maintaining world order.
First, it serves as a bridge between the rest of the world and the Russian state, which has been and is on the verge of becoming further alienated by the Western ecosystem. India’s commitment to multilateralism and world order locks Russia, India’s close partner, into a system it would otherwise seek to destroy. India can do this because it cannot be seen as agitating for any particular political or geopolitical position. It is a border state that transcends systems, offering the ability to connect and even integrate separate universes.
Second, India-Russia relations completely prevent Russian bears from entering the dragon’s den. Russia’s subordination to Beijing’s interests would be extremely harmful to the world order, especially to the West. India’s outstretched hand will give Russia more maneuverability and allow it to avoid completely capitulating to China’s demands. It is becoming increasingly clear that avoiding becoming a junior partner of its giant neighbors, such as in the BRICS, is a priority for Moscow. Russia looks forward to an equal partnership. India provides it, China does not. Europe needs to understand that when peace finally returns to the continent, Russia will not be subordinate to the European Union, but will be on an equal footing.
India’s outstretched hand will give Russia more maneuverability and allow it to avoid completely capitulating to China’s demands.
Third, fossil fuel trade between India and Russia is designed to be subject to sanctions aimed at limiting Russian interests. This too has far-reaching benefits for the world. This brings valuable price stability and predictability to energy markets, which is crucial for Western countries, especially Europe. It is no exaggeration to say that the energy trade element of the India-Russia relationship is preventing Europe from sliding further into political anarchy.
Fourth, this relationship opens up new possibilities for the important Arctic region. Had India not increased its strategic presence in the Arctic and collaborated not only with Russia but also with its European and Nordic friends, a new axis between Russia and China would have shaped the future of the region. That could have caused a catastrophe for the ecosystem and safety of the global supply chain. If anything, India’s increased role opens up better options. The Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor, jointly owned by Russia and India, could be the first step towards more effective and inclusive connectivity and governance structures in the region.
Finally, India’s presence in increasingly powerful and influential groups such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ensures that these are not weaponized against the West. As External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has said, India is neither non-Western nor anti-Western. This moderate and rational attitude shapes the actions and positions of such groups. That grouping has further loosened as New Delhi’s candidates and their Western friends such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Vietnam have joined BRICS as members or partners. The presence of these countries and India’s leadership ensure that BRICS functions as a complement to, rather than a challenge to, traditional Western-led multilateral groupings.
India’s presence in increasingly powerful and influential groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ensures that these are not weaponized against the West.
The ability to partner with countries deeply divided by geopolitics has been a hallmark of Indian diplomacy since independence. But only now is it becoming clear that this ability is essential to preventing a stressful collapse of the world order. India-Russia relations benefit not only the two countries in question, but the world. The Indian and Western policy communities are acutely aware of the critical importance of this relationship. Skepticism in the West’s Russophobic media and think tank ecosystem does not change that reality.
This commentary was originally published in The Indian Express.
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