If you’ve been paying attention to the Golden Globe nominations, you know this is a battleground for giants. From Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) to Kate Winslet (Lee) in drama, and Amy Adams (Nightbitch) to Zendaya (Challengers) in comedy/musicals, this year’s stars include: The field is full of valuable talent.
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If you check Oscar prediction aggregation sites like Gold Derby, you’ll see that there are three comedy/musical nominees in the top slots for the Academy Awards. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Carla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Perez), Mikey Madison (Anora). Hard to argue with you, right?
“The Substance” will be shown next at the Globe and CCA, where you’ll find several other artists including Demi Moore (“The Substance”), who made it into the top 20 for visual effects. Again, that’s a fair assessment.
But historically, this statistic can serve as a sober reality check for one or more of the leading candidates. Three-time Golden Globe Award nominees in the Comedy/Musical category include Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents), Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice), and Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon ( “Walk the Line”) have won the Oscar for Best Actress three times. ), 1979, starring Jill Clayburgh (Starting Over), Marcia Mason (Chapter 2), Bette Midler (The Rose), and 1964 Oscar winner Julie – Andrews (“Mary Poppins”), Sophia Loren (“Marriage Italian Style”), and Debbie Reynolds (“The Unsinkable Molly Brown”) – four comedy/musical actresses co-starred. It was never included in the Oscar lineup.
If nominated, Erivo would become the second black woman in history to be nominated for Best Actress twice, following Viola Davis. She also joins the exclusive club of black women recognized for leading roles in musicals, following Dorothy Dandridge in Carmen Jones (1954).
What makes Erivo’s campaign all the more appealing is another musical standout: Carla Sofia Gascón, director of Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language crime musical Emilia Pérez. It is a competition with Coincidentally, the 1964 lineup was also the last time that two leading actresses’ musical performances were recognized at the Oscars.
Then there’s breakout star Mikey Madison, who won an LAFCA Award for his charming portrayal of a young stripper and was the central character in Sean Baker’s Cannes-winning film Anora. Meanwhile, Moore’s sharp turn in Coralie Ferguito’s dark comedy Substance is her best work in years (and perhaps her career).
Translating Globe nominations into Oscar recognition is no easy feat, especially for comedies and musicals. Remember, while the Globes and Critics Choice Awards have expanded their categories to be more inclusive (12 slots for the Globes and 6 for the CCA), the Academy’s limit of five nominees This means that significant reductions have been forced.
Drama actress candidates are also fighting to remain in the competition. Oscar winners Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), Kate Winslet (“Lee”) and Venice and NBR winner Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”).
Oscar history provides a roadmap, but no guarantees. Statistics show that it’s rare for two musicals to be in the Best Picture lineup (“Wicked” and “Emilia Perez”). Similarly, the Academy has never accepted four comedy/musical actresses in the same year.
Still, surprises do happen. No one expected CODA (2021) to break through more than a dozen statistical barriers to win Best Picture, and yet it did.
So far, only two guilds, the Makeup Artists, Hair Stylists Guild (MUAHS) and the American Cinema Editors (ACE), have announced awards with duplicate actual AMPAS voting. It is noteworthy that it does not recognize departments. The first real indicators will emerge when SAG voting begins on Monday. Still, SAG is confident that “rockers” like Margot Robbie (“Barbie”), Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”) or Amy Adams (“Arrival”) will be in the lead-up to nomination morning. It is only because we see them that we can say that we infer that they are. It’s on Variety’s Despised and Surprised list.
Any veteran awards watcher will tell you that statistics only tell you so much. Let’s sit tight and see where this season takes us.
The 97th Oscar Awards will be held on Sunday, March 2nd. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
