The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s autocratic regime in Syria this weekend highlighted the interconnectedness of a growing number of global conflicts and revealed hard truths that most of us don’t want to think too deeply about. . It means that World War III has already begun.
Business leaders need to recognize this and start planning accordingly.
A rebel fighter fires an AK-47 in the air in celebration after rebel forces take over … (+)
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I’m not alone in believing this. In fact, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the exact same thing a few weeks ago.
“World War III has already begun. A coordinated ground war is already underway in multiple countries,” he told an audience at the Institute of International Finance in late October. “The risks are extraordinary.”
The defeat of the Russian-backed regime in Syria underscores Dimon’s point. Without direct Russian military intervention in 2015, Assad would have been firmly ousted by the popular uprising that began in 2011. Since then, Russia, together with Iran and its proxies, has managed to prop up an untenable dictatorship that has killed thousands of people. And evacuating millions of civilians in the process.
Until you can’t do that anymore.
The war in Ukraine has stripped Russia of its power and reduced its ability to reliably defend the Assad regime. Just as Russia’s successful defense of Stalingrad strained Germany’s military strength and contributed to its loss of North Africa in 1943. Attacks on Iran itself have also made it difficult for Tehran to stay in the fight in Syria.
What we are beginning to see is interconnectedness between seemingly disparate conflicts, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the fighting between Israel and Hamas not seen since 1945. This trend is likely to continue and expand, giving rise to even more conflicts. Countries and regions will be caught up in the vortex.
That is why I say that World War III has already begun. It’s not because the US is on the brink of war with Russia, or even China for that matter (though that could still happen just as well).
Although these conflicts may appear distinct at first glance, they share several characteristics that justify considering them as components of a single overarching global conflict. These include the direct or proxy involvement of great powers, the intertwining of political, economic and ideological objectives, and the cascading effects of one conflict on another, creating a chain reaction of instability. Masu.
Similar to the early stages of past world wars, these interconnected crises are eroding the boundaries of regional and global conflicts and drawing nations and alliances into broader struggles for control and survival. . This is more than an isolated battle, it is a defining feature of world wars.
What does this mean for your business?
Why should you care? Because this growing global conflict will increasingly impact your business. It will affect the world economy. That will impact the supply chain. It will affect the customers.
The effects are already being felt, directly or indirectly, and will increase as the fighting escalates.
As Dimon warned, “(W)e can’t pass up the chance for this to resolve itself.”
We must prepare today, not tomorrow.
Preparing for World War III means understanding the risks that a global conflict poses to your company. Once you understand these risks, you can change your strategy to minimize them or develop contingency plans to reduce them.
Preparing for World War III also means understanding the opportunities a global conflict presents for your company. Recognizing opportunities in this context does not necessarily mean exploiting conflict for profit, but rather identifying ways in which business can contribute positively while navigating these challenges.
Ethical opportunities could include supporting humanitarian relief efforts, investing in technology to strengthen supply chain resilience, and providing resources for recovery and infrastructure development in affected areas. These actions are not only consistent with corporate social responsibility, but also position businesses as trusted partners in rebuilding and resilience.
Business leaders must recognize that every crisis creates an opportunity, and failing to identify and take advantage of a crisis is just as dangerous as not identifying and mitigating risks.
wars and rumors of wars
This conflict, while increasingly global in nature and scope, will be very different from the world wars of the past century. As Clausewitz said, “Every era had its own kind of war, its own limiting conditions, and its own preconceptions.”
This is likely to start and go well, at least in the short term. There is a good chance that President Trump will force an end to the war in Ukraine, but I expect Russia to use the peace to rebuild and rearm before continuing its efforts to redraw the map of Europe. Eventually, fighting will resume somewhere in Ukraine or on NATO’s Eastern Front.
This would make the situation even worse, and the effects would be even larger and far-reaching. A growing number of European leaders, from French President Emmanuel Macron to Britain’s new Defense Chief, Sir Rory Walker, have begun warning that all-out war with Russia is likely within the next few years. This is why.
As business leaders, we can’t fool ourselves into thinking the crisis is over just because the fighting has paused. Rather, we must all brace ourselves for a new era of global conflict.
