A leading think tank has said that British elections are “approaching a tipping point” where they will lose legitimacy due to a sharp drop in turnout among renters and non-graduates.
In the 2024 general election, the difference in turnout between people with a university degree and those without a university degree will widen to 11 percentage points, twice as much as in 2019, according to analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). equivalent.
The gap in voter turnout between homeowners and renters widened by nearly a quarter between the 2017 and 2024 elections, to 19 percentage points.
The findings suggest that disillusionment with politics is growing among certain social groups, leading to increasingly unequal elections.
“We’re approaching a tipping point where elections start to lose their legitimacy because a majority doesn’t participate,” said Parth Patel, IPPR’s associate director for democracy and politics. That should ring more alarm bells than it actually does. ”
The inequality in turnout in the 2024 election is 11 percentage points between the top three and bottom three earners, and between people in working-class and middle-class jobs, which is Almost unchanged since 2015.
According to the analysis, the difference in turnout between those aged 18 to 24 and those aged 60 and over is 21 percentage points, and this gap is also stable.
This data may cause concern among Labor strategists. Morgan McSweeney, Keir Starmer’s chief of staff and most influential adviser, has built his 2024 election strategy around winning over voters without a university degree.
Party officials are focused on combating the rise of Nigel Farage’s British Reform Party. The British Reform Party came in second with 89 seats held by Labor, including many of the party’s former industrial hubs in the north of England.
Labor promised a number of electoral expansion measures in its manifesto, including making it easier to register to vote, lowering the voting age to 16 and tightening rules on political donations. The party declined to scrap voter ID rules introduced by the Conservatives, but said it would increase the types of ID it would accept at polling places.
Although it has not promised to introduce automatic voter registration, the Guardian reported in June that it was developing plans to introduce it. All these policies will form part of the Democracy Bill, which is in its early stages of development.
IPPR called for bolder measures, including a new public obligation to staff polling places, similar to jury service. The think tank said that without action to improve participation in democracy, populist movements will continue to gain momentum even if the economy is strong.
Just one in two adults living in the UK will vote in the July 2024 general election, the lowest proportion of the population to vote since universal suffrage, according to think tank analysis. Only three in five registered voters cast a ballot.
IPPR recommended four policies that it said would be effective in increasing voter turnout and reducing inequality, and that could be implemented in this Congress. These are:
Lower the voting age to 16 years old.
Implement automatic voter registration.
Introducing a cap of £100,000 per year on donations to political parties.
Creation of “election day service.”
In the latter case, poll workers would be selected by lottery from among the citizens, similar to how citizens are selected to serve as jurors.
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Other policy proposals included moving voting to the weekend or making Election Day a public holiday and eliminating voter ID requirements introduced by the Conservatives.
The IPPR also said the government should consider enfranchising the 5 million long-term tax residents who are not nationals of the UK, Ireland and Commonwealth countries.
Another proposed change is to redraw district boundaries based on the area’s entire adult population, not just registered voters.
Finally, the think tank recommended increasing the powers of the Electoral Commission to investigate candidates for breach of rules and impose sanctions, including fines of up to £500,000, equal to 4% of campaign expenses.
The Guardian reported last month that ministers were considering proposals from the election watchdog’s chief executive, Vijay Rangarajan, to tighten rules on political donations to protect the electoral system from foreign interference. Ta.
Rangarajan said linking donations to political parties to British interests in foreign-owned companies was one of the urgent changes needed to maintain voter trust.
The measures being considered by the government could put a cap on the amount Elon Musk can donate through the UK arm of his social media company X (formerly Twitter). There is speculation that Mr Musk, an ally of Donald Trump and a fierce critic of Starmer, could donate $100m (£80m) to the reforms.
“The widening turnout gap between renters and homeowners, graduates and non-alumni, is a clear challenge in addressing political inequality,” said IPPR researcher Ryan Swift, co-author of the report. It highlights our blind spots.”
“Bold reforms like 16-year voting, automatic registration, and fairer election rules are needed to rebuild trust and strengthen democracy.”
