Trump is uncertain -and Xi Jinping is looking at the opportunity

If China was angry with the United States due to 10 % of the tariffs on all Chinese products, it was a good job to hide it.

Washington urged him to start discussions after repeated warnings that there were no winners in the trade war.

A fire caused a fire until midnight in Washington -As the Chinese tariffs began, Beijing is 10-15 % of retaliation from February 10 for various US imports including coal, crude oil and large vehicles. Was announced.

The Chinese government hopes to trade with Washington to avoid further tariffs, and hopes to maintain that the world’s two largest economies are not controlled. It may have been.

After all, US President Donald Trump agreed to support Canada and Mexico a few hours before the customs duties were implemented. Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping will be talking this week.

The US collection is stabbed -especially because Trump is added to the imports of tens of billions of dollars in China in his first term. And China’s population is already concerned about the economic slowdown.

Beijing and Washington have previously been to the toes about tariffs. However, many things have changed since Trump 1.0.

In one, the Chinese economy is not as dependent on the United States as returning to 2020. Beijing has strengthened trade agreements in Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. Currently, it is the largest trading partner of 120 or more countries.

According to Carnegie China, Chung Jian, 10 % may not provide a leverage that Trump wants.

President Xi Jinping may also see a big opportunity here.

Trump is dividing in his own backyard, threatening that the European Union (EU) will be appointed as his first month. His actions may be in other US allies who are wondering what is prepared for them.

In contrast, China wants to be a calm, stable, and probably more attractive global trade partner.

“Trump’s first American policy will bring issues and threats to almost all countries in the world,” said Yun San, the director of the Chinese program of Stimson Center.

“From the perspective of strategic competition between the United States and China, the worsening US leadership and reliability will benefit China. It is unlikely to change well for China at the two countries, but Beijing certainly lemonade. I will try to make it … “

As the second largest economy leader in the world, XI has not kept his ambitions against China, led an alternative world order.

Since the end of COVID PANDEMIC, he has traveled widely and has been supporting agreements on major international organizations such as the World Bank and Paris climate agreements.

Chinese state -owned media describes it as embracing countries around the world and deepening diplomatic relations.

Before that, when Trump stopped US funding to the WHO in 2020, China pledged additional funds. Following the exit from Washington’s WHO, there is a high expectation that Beijing may intervene to bury American shoes again.

The same applies to the aid freeze, which causes such confusion in countries and organizations that have long depended on raising US funding.

On the first day of returning to the office, Trump has frozen all the foreign aid provided by the United States. Hundreds of foreign aid programs delivered to stop the USAID ground. After that, some people have been restarting, but the assistant contractor explains the progress of the agency because the future of the agency is balanced.

Trump’s “American First” Doctrine says that there is a possibility that Washington’s status as a global leader will further weaken, said John Delley, a modern Chinese historian and a professor at Seoul’s high school.

“The combination of customs duties to the main trade partners and the freezing of foreign aid will send a message to the global South and OECD that the United States is not interested in international partnerships and cooperation,” he tells the BBC.

“The consistent message about the US President’s” Win-Win “globalization has a completely new meaning when the United States retreats from the world. “

In the bidding for global governance, Beijing had been looking for opportunities to overturn the United States -led world order over the past 50 years -and may be the uncertainty of Trump’s presidential position.

“Whether it really has important advantages to Beijing -I am a little convinced,” says Chung.

“Especially, many US allies and partners in the Pacific Ocean have the reasons to cooperate with Beijing, but they also have the reason to be alert. I have anxiety.

According to the Australian International Research Institute, the possibility of Australia, Japan and South Korea, which was motivated by the “Second Trump administration”, may “gain momentum.”

All three are concerned about China’s claims in the South China Sea with the Philippines. They are also worried about the possibility of a war over Taiwan’s autonomous island -Beijing is ultimately part of the country and has not excluded the use of force to achieve it. It is considered a state of time.

Taiwan has long been one of the most controversial issues in the US -China relationship, and Beijing has accused Washington’s support recognizing Taipei’s support.

However, it may be difficult for Washington to fight against a sign of a Chinese attack when Trump’s annexation of Canada or purchasing Greenland.

Most countries in this area use a military alliance with Washington to balance economic relations with China.

But now that he is alert to Beijing and distrusted the United States, they have created a new Asian alliance in both the largest power in the world.

Trump announced US tariffs on the weekend. This is because a Chinese family celebrated the New Year and invited a lucky god to their house.

The bright red lanterns are now shaking on the empty Beijing Street because most of the workers have now left for their hometown on their largest holidays this year.

At first, China’s only response was to take legal measures and use the World Trade Organization to relieve dissatisfaction.

But this is almost not a threat to Washington. The WTO conflict solving system has been effectively closed since 2019, when Donald Trump (in his first term at the time) blocked the appointment of the judge to handle the appeal.

Later, China announced retaliation tariffs. They have a decision to decide when the holidays are approaching and the party officials return to Beijing and return to work.

The authorities have been encouraged in recent weeks due to signs that the Trump administration may want to stabilize the relationship after two leaders, especially the two leaders, had called “great telephone” last month. I was.

However, it will be difficult because both Republican members and the Democratic Party have become more and more American as the largest foreign policy and economic threats in the United States.

“Mr. Trump’s unpredictable, impulse and recklessness will lead to a great shock to the two countries,” said Woo Symbo, a professor and director of the United States Research Center at the University of Hudan. I am.

“Furthermore, his team contains a considerable number of hawks, and China also contains extreme hawks. In the next four years, the relationship between the two countries will be a serious confusion. No.

China is certainly concerned about the relationship with the United States and the harm of trade wars that can lead to economic slowdown.

However, it is also looking for a way to use the current political pendulum to shake the international community within its method and its impact.