In 2024, the world became more dangerous, making it possible to use the most dangerous weapons.
Details from experts
This trajectory raises the interests of the new Trump administration, which is trying to end the war between Europe and the Middle East, and reverses the use of nuclear weapons accelerated by these conflicts and the ominous path to diffusion.
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Vladimir Putin became more aggressive in Ukraine last year, engineering the collapse of nuclear girldrails built between the United States and Russia for 70 years, lowering the use of nuclear weapons. He announced that the Russian nuclear army had fallen into a complete combat warning, immediately conducted military exercises, and tested Russian non -strategic nuclear army in battle scenarios.
President Putin launched a new Russian high -sonic ballistic missile in Ukraine’s target and has officially reduced the use of nuclear weapons to satisfy the Russian territory of the territory. The year of the official announcement of Doctrine has gained a year. The revised doctrine also states that the attack on Russia by non -nuclear forced nuclear power is considered a joint attack on Russia.
US defense analysts have rated that Russia is not preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and Putin’s nuclear threats are “bluffs” to reduce Ukraine support by Ukraine supporters. It has been rejected. However, Putin’s rhetoric and policy revisions have a great effect.
Details from experts
Before the war in Ukraine, it was very rare for the United States or Russian leaders to imply threat to nuclear use. Putin’s threat dramatically changed the lexicon for nuclear use, lowering the psychological barrier to the use in Ukraine for the country needing nuclear deterrence. These rhetorics, in combination with strategic doctrine changes, reduce the thrills for using nuclear weapons not only in the current dispute but also in future disputes. In addition, Putin must recognize that in order to maintain the deterrence, it cannot continue to issue threats before action is finally needed.
With the need for support in the Russian War War and as a result in the Northern Russian mutual defense treaty in 2024, it is highly likely that unpredictable North Korea will acquire more sophisticated nuclear knowledge and technology. 。 Russia also led the United Nations efforts to alleviate North Korea’s nuclear plan by refusing a resolution to extend the duties of the panel, which was in charge of the United Nations sanctions.
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Following the announcement that North Korea will no longer seek unification and reconciliation with South Korea, both South Korea and Japan have resumed debate on whether non -nuclear state will still be useful for national security benefits. 。
Similarly, the Middle East War is impaired with nuclear girldrails. Iran can become a nuclear weapon state in response to Israel’s weakening attacks and their proxies. This has solved the guess of whether Israel will take such possibilities by escalating the dispute with direct attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. The close cooperation between Iran’s Russia and China is increasingly concerned about further cooperation in the development of Iranian nuclear abilities.
Deterioration of nuclear garadrail deterioration and contributing to a decrease in nuclear thresholds is a rapid increase in China’s nuclear power in 2024. He stopped US interventions, checked potential nuclear escalations or the first strike, increased the scope and scale of the dispute, and did not have a small, non -diverse nuclear power before. “
To further increase the nuclear risk level is advanced. AI can automatically automate the order and control of nuclear weapons. Increasing the role of nuclear energy to deal with climate change can increase nuclear weapons abilities unless you are eager to deal with it.
President Donald Trump has indicated that the resolution of the war between Ukraine and the Middle East is the top priority for the next administration. However, these conflict solutions need to include the use of nuclear weapons and acceleration for diffusion.
Risk reduction measures are executable starting points. Russia has not completely rejected the pentagon in advance of the need for this kind of measure before the release of ballistic missile strikes in Ukraine in November. 。 The role of Putin, reported by China and India, to remove his nuclear threats, has shown an understanding of risks. Including nuclear risk reduction measures as part of the agreement to end the dispute may seem like a small step in the acceleration threat of the face, but the understanding of the relevant risk is for a wider measurement. It is a bedrock.
