At a critical time for Ukraine, support for Ukraine “until we win” is on the rise across Western Europe, as President Donald Trump’s upcoming return to the White House casts doubt on the future of U.S. military aid to Kiev. Research suggests that this is rapidly declining.
A December poll conducted by YouGov in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom found that people’s desire to support Ukraine until it wins, even if it means prolonging the war, has increased over the past 12 months. It was found that all seven countries experienced declines during the period.
The survey found that support for an alternative solution to the conflict (a negotiated end to the fighting, even if Russia takes control of parts of Ukraine) has increased in all countries, with four countries saying it is the preferred option. It turned out to be.
There was some dissatisfaction with the forced settlement, which involved Ukraine ceding territory to Russia, but there was also widespread speculation that the new US president would abandon Ukraine after his inauguration on January 20. .
Trump has boasted that the war could be ended within “24 hours,” without providing details, and Ukraine special envoy Keith Kellogg is scheduled to visit European capitals in early January. . Analysts have expressed doubts that Russian President Vladimir Putin will enter into negotiations on terms that are somehow acceptable to Kiev.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed President Trump’s victory, even as he resents the outgoing Biden administration’s progressive policies and strategies of “escalation management.”
The data was released at a critical time for Ukraine, nearly three years after Putin’s full-scale invasion. This year, Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since spring 2022, when the column tried and failed to take Kiev.
Russian forces have taken control of several towns and cities in the eastern Donbas region, and Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend urban settlements in the face of a lack of front-line troops and Russia’s continued military dominance.
Kiev has acknowledged that the Kremlin’s tactics have been effective, including deploying aircraft to target defensive positions with glide bombs, followed by artillery fire and the use of small groups of infantry. Russia is also adept at identifying weak Ukrainian brigades.
According to the poll, the intention to support Ukraine until it defeats Russia remains high in Sweden (50%) and Denmark (40%), while in the UK it was 36%, down from January’s 57%. This is a 14 point decrease compared to the previous year. %, 51%, 50%.
Over the same period, the proportion of respondents who said they preferred a negotiated peace rose from 45% (38%) in Italy, 46% (38%) in Spain, 43% (35%) in France, and 45% (38%) in Germany to 55%. It increased rapidly. A corresponding decline in support for Ukraine until it wins.
It is unclear whether this change reflects decreased interest or increased fatigue. In France, Germany, and Sweden, the proportion who want and care that Ukraine wins has remained stable since the beginning of 2023, although it has declined elsewhere.
With less than a month until Trump’s return, a majority or near-majority in all but one country believes the next U.S. president is likely to cut aid to Ukraine. : 62% of Germans, 60% of Spaniards, 56% of British, 52% of French, 48% of Italians.
There is less certainty that President Trump will withdraw the US from the NATO defense alliance, with Danes, Germans, Italians, Spaniards and Swedes more likely to think that will not happen, but the UK Opinions among the people and the French were divided into two.
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A peace deal that would see Russia take control of at least some areas of Ukraine that it has illegally occupied since its February 2022 invasion, as President Trump reportedly may be planning. Opinions were also divided on how the public felt about the situation.
Majorities in Sweden (57%), Denmark (53%) and the UK (51%), and a sizable minority in Spain (43%), said they felt very or very negatively about such an agreement. However, it was only 37%. In France it was 31%, and in Germany and Italy it was 31%.
It is unclear what kind of agreement will be reached regarding Ukraine. Putin last week reiterated his maximalist goals, which include Russia’s control over Crimea and four “annexed” regions of Ukraine, as well as demilitarization of Ukraine and a veto on NATO membership.
President Zelenskiy is reluctant to hand over the occupied territories to Russia. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte criticized Western talks about the peace process as premature and said Ukraine should get what it needs to prevent Putin from winning.
According to the survey, most Western Europeans believe that Ukraine’s allies have taken sufficient measures to prevent Russia from winning the war, both in terms of economic sanctions against Russia and military and other aid to Kiev. It was shown that he felt that he was not.
Some 66% of Danes, 63% of Swedes and Spaniards, 59% of Brits, 53% of Germans and Italians, and 52% of French say that overall support for Ukraine is not enough. , answered that there is hardly enough. But few believed their country should increase aid.
Minorities ranging from 29% in Sweden, 21% in the UK and Germany, 14% in France and just 11% in Italy believe their government should increase aid to Ukraine, and However, a high percentage of respondents said that aid should be maintained. or reduced.
When it comes to concrete measures such as tightening sanctions, shipping more weapons, sending more troops to support NATO members in Eastern Europe, or coordinating airstrikes against Russian targets in Ukraine, support is It was stable or lower than before.
When asked what they thought the situation would be like a year from now, few Western Europeans believed that either Russia or Ukraine would have won, and most believed that the two countries would still be fighting or that peace negotiations would have taken place. I think it was.
Denmark (47%), Germany (40%), Britain and France (38%), and Italy (36%) see reconciliation as more likely, while continued fighting is slightly more likely in each country. considered a scenario. Spain (36%) and Sweden (35%).
