Promotion to the Premier League is difficult. But is it virtually impossible to survive? |Football

aAnd as always, as expected, the year ends with the bottom three of the Premier League being occupied by the three promoted teams. Things are tough for the three teams currently in the relegation zone, with Wolves and Crystal Palace back on the road and Everton under new ownership and finding stability, always a key strength of Sean Dyche’s side. Each will have their own reflections on the first half of the season, but more generally the situation is alarming. Three teams promoted last season were relegated, and the gulf between the Premier League and the Championship now feels almost impossibly wide.

Southampton, who are bottom of the table, have 10 points from safety. Realistically, they probably need an average of 1.5 points from here to maintain their place. In other words, the ranking is about the same. They have shown improvement in the two games since Russell Martin was sacked, but still had poor performances against Fulham and Crystal Palace, earning just one point. Perhaps they might have had a better chance of survival if they hadn’t stuck to a high-risk passing style that kept giving up possession in dangerous areas, but the truth is that this looks nothing like a Premier League team. It wasn’t. The priority now is to get the six points needed to avoid breaking Derby’s season-low record of 11 points.

Ipswich are now six points clear before Monday’s game against Chelsea, and with the performances of Omari Hutchinson, Leif Davies and especially Liam Delap, their Premier League disappointment has eased a bit and they look like they could be performing at the highest level. It looked like. They rarely lose, but they have had too many drawn games where a sharper edge could have hurt something, and they have yet to win a game at home.

Leicester probably have the best chance of surviving and look more comfortable on the ball than their rivals in the bottom quarter of the table, but they were too open under Ruud van Nistelrooy. Despite taking four points in his first two games in charge, against West Ham and Brighton, there was a sense that he had benefited from the profligacy of his opponents. In his six games in charge so far, the team has conceded 19.2 shots per game, and despite facing Liverpool and Manchester City in the last two games, the trend is trending in the right direction. Tightening comes at a cost. Only once in the last four games. Perhaps a break with Wolves and possibly Everton to avoid the final relegation spot.

It is true that none of the promoted teams will slump in 2022-23, with all three teams – Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest – continuing to improve. However, while Fulham and Bournemouth had recently gained long experience in the Premier League, Forest were overspending and were ultimately given a four point deduction for a PSR breach. This is not to suggest that they were acting cynically to point out that given their current position of second place, it might seem a worthwhile sacrifice. If Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton are eliminated this season, 10 of the last 15 promoted teams will be the first to be eliminated.

When the Premier League was first reduced to 20 teams in the 1996-97 season, the three promoted teams averaged 44.3 points per game. Last season it was just 22.0. Looking at the average over the past five years, this number remained constant above 41 until 2004-2005, then dropped to 36 or 37 before hitting an all-time low last year. This season, the three promoted teams are on track to break the lowest record of 21.7. At the same time, Sheffield United and Burnley, who were relegated last season, sit second and third in the Championship, while Leeds remain top of the table despite being relegated this season.

This feeling is like a club mezzanine, buoyed by the parachute payments they receive for three years after relegation, too good for the Championship but not good enough for the Premier League. Proposals to abolish parachute payments may ease the competitive conditions for the second flight, but removing parachutes would discourage investment from promoted teams and perhaps make it harder for them to remain in the Premier League.

Promotion to the world’s best league will probably be tough, but there are two major drawbacks if survival becomes virtually impossible. Firstly, the Premier League as a whole is in decline due to weakness at the bottom end. And secondly, fans of Championship sides are increasingly heard wondering if promotion is really worth it.

A fundamental question then arises. For more than a century, English football has been based on the concept of a pyramid, the idea that through hard work, application and inspiration, a team can gradually rise and perhaps occupy an elite position. This becomes extremely difficult when the allocation of resources involves clear and unbridgeable gaps between departments. Top-end quality is essential. The question is how to smooth the slope without sacrificing the rich hinterland, which remains a distinguishing feature of the British game.

This is an excerpt from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, the Guardian’s weekly coverage of matches in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Have a question for Jonathan? Email soccerwithjw@theguardian.com. We’ll get the best answer in a future edition.