The road to the Super Bowl passes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will be appearing in the AFC Championship Game for the seventh straight year. They are just two wins away from a three-peat, the greatest feat of the Super Bowl era. Standing in their way is the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and have a chance to dethrone the current two-time champions.
In the NFC, the managers shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night, and will look to repeat that feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who defeated the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game brackets before The Athletic’s NFL prediction model created by Austin Mock reveals the odds for each remaining team to win the Super Bowl.
A.F.C.
1st place Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. 2nd place Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)
The AFC will continue to be a force to be reckoned with this season as the Chiefs and Bills will face off in the AFC Championship Game for the first time in four years.
The Bills ended their showdown with a thrilling 27-25 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. Quarterback Josh Allen beat fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, with the Bills star completing 16-of-22 for 127 yards and several rushing scores to halt a Baltimore comeback.
The Chiefs were a bit shaky in their postseason debut, defeating the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visiting team outperforming them in yards, time of possession, first downs, and third down conversions. That’s because defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams remain a big part of the equation, and the Chiefs are the most balanced team in that area.
As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs are aiming to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes got together.
It hasn’t been a breakout season for Mahomes, but he has had more games with less than 200 passing yards (5 games) than with more than 300 yards (3 games), including the divisional round. . But since his last interception two months ago, he has scored 13 touchdowns (one rushing) and hasn’t committed a mistake.
Mahomes also scored 15 touchdowns and only two interceptions (both losses to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Game games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover in their last eight games. That will be the focus against the Bills. The Bills scored three points against the Ravens on Sunday and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.
Mahomes isn’t getting much help. His offensive tackle was poor, at least while left guard Joe Thuney was unfamiliar with left tackle, and players of his skill were in and out of the lineup with injuries.
But he still has Travis Kelce, who just had his ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. Although the 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s productivity dropped significantly during the regular season, Kelce is as dominant as ever in the playoffs. He has gained at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games, averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that span. He also led the league in touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.
Still, the modern NFL dynasty will be challenged all week with one question: Can Allen be stopped?
Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions during the regular season, while also adding 531 rushing yards and 12 points.
In Week 11, Allen went 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a 26-yard touch in a key fourth-and-2 as the Bills defeated the Chiefs 30-21. Added 55 rushing yards, including a knockdown. This was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes in the starting lineup, and it may have been the performance that sparked Allen’s MVP campaign.
In the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, the Chiefs are 6-3, including 4-2 against Mahomes, and the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills over the past four years, including three straight wins.
• Chance of Chiefs winning the Super Bowl: 30.1%
• Probability of Bills winning Super Bowl: 25.5%
Chance to win the Super Bowl
team
odds
33.5%
30.1%
25.5%
11%
NFC
2nd place Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. 6th place Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
The NFC North has been wearing the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing a ring.
The Eagles and Commanders met in the NFC Championship Game after splitting their regular season series, with the Commanders winning 36-33 at home in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to win Game 26 against the Commanders. They were -18 in Week 11, so both games were close.
The Eagles may want to put an asterisk on the loss after quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but his 33 points were the sixth-highest of the season behind Kenny Pickett’s strong performance. The far more important story is that the Eagles couldn’t win the turnover battle despite a 5-2 advantage.
So what if the Eagles don’t do enough in Game 3? That’s probably moot, too, since their last win was a close 1-0 in a takeaway. It’s a rare case that turnovers didn’t affect either outcome.
Still, commanders may not want to test the theory further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their past 13 games, including several forced fumbles in a key second-half development in a 28-22 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round. Also included.
even deeper
The coaches needed just one win to advance to the Super Bowl. Let me marinate a little.
Daniels has had his coaches’ offense play at an elite level during two road wins in the playoffs. Excluding the sequence leading up to the end of the first half, they scored on 11 of 16 possessions and only punted once. They turned it over on third down, making the risk/reward relationship net positive, but there were no interceptions or lost fumbles. He also missed a field goal.
Daniels’ command in all situations is remarkable. The rookie has the clutch genes to help drive to victory this season, but Daniels did a great job of keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions on Saturday night, forcing the managers to take advantage of the next five possessions. He led to points in four of them. Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels kept the ball moving as the Lions tried to escape.
Daniels will need to be a good player to lead the coaches to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, but the evidence suggests he will rise to the challenge. During the seven-game winning streak, he had 1,522 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions, and added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.
Hurts and the Eagles’ passing attack have been pedestrian since his return from a concussion. He gained 259 yards and two touchdowns in two playoff wins, but was the only rusher with 106 yards and one score. Wide receivers AJ Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) didn’t have much impact as a result.
But don’t worry, the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The league’s best offseason addition didn’t slow down from a tumultuous regular season, with 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games.
These teams met once in the postseason, with Washington in the wild card matchup on January 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in all-time series.
In conference championships during the Super Bowl era, the Commanders are 5-1 and the Eagles are 4-4.
• Probability of Eagles winning Super Bowl: 33.5%
• Chance of manager winning the Super Bowl: 11%
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang/Getty Images)
