Dear President Trump:
You may not be interested in Jewish or Arab history, but both are of great interest to you today. This is one of those rare moments in the Middle East when everything is relevant and everything is possible, just as it was after World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. And now everyone is waiting for you.
That’s not an exaggeration. You have an opportunity to rebuild this region in a way that can fundamentally advance peace and prosperity for Israelis, Palestinians, and all peoples in the region, as well as America’s national security interests. .
However, be aware that while the rewards of success are huge, the consequences of failure can be hellish. Nobel Prize or Booby Prize. But there is no escaping this mission. The Middle East will either emerge as a powerful region with normalized relations, trade and cooperation to target, or a small number of strongholds surrounded by vast anarchy, warlordism, and terrorists horrifyingly adept at using drones. Either it will collapse into a nation-state.
Every train timetable has something called the last train. Now, when it comes to peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians, before Israel’s West Bank settlements completely shut down the possibility of a two-state agreement. End Lebanon’s 50-year civil war while there is still a glimmer of hope. Give Syria a chance to reintegrate after 14 years of conflict. And neutralizing Iran before a nuclear bomb is dropped would be like the last train.
On Sunday, for the first time since October 7, 2023, Israelis hugged loved ones who had been held hostage for more than a year, and Gazans left evacuation centers and returned to their homes, signaling the war may end. I saw a glimmer of hope. The house–they’re still standing there. Haaretz quoted Ahmed Matar of Gaza City, one of the many displaced Palestinians walking north, loading their belongings in wheelbarrows and donkeys, and no doubt with most Israelis. I’m sure it speaks for the feelings of the Palestinian people (and it definitely spoke for me too). “People just want this madness.” Stop. “
No one will have a bigger say in this matter than you, President Trump. So let’s investigate that issue.
Your political and diplomatic aspirations, from your recent engagement with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to press him to accept the ceasefire and hostage/prisoner exchange that Mr. Biden has proposed and that Mr. Bibi has consistently opposed. I’m sure you understand that this is fundamentally contradictory. To him.
In fact, your aspirations and America’s interests are probably the fuse that will blow up Bibi’s cabinet and potentially end his political career. His dream was for Bibi to outsmart the aging Joe Biden. You are his nightmare. Monday’s headline in Haaretz — “Prime Minister Netanyahu lies to Trump, prepares to sabotage Gaza ceasefire” — did not come out of thin air.
Your interest is in uniting Israel and Saudi Arabia with other Arab partners into a US-led alliance, which would require Israel to begin talks with the Palestinian Authority on a two-state solution. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political survival will depend on what keeps his coalition in power and thwarts the National Commission of Inquiry into those responsible for the Hamas attack, which is under his watch, as the war in Gaza resumes after this ceasefire. It all depends on what happens and whether Mr. Bibi never opens time-limited negotiations. About the Palestinian Authority and two states for two peoples.
That is why, in response to Hamas’s brutal onslaught in 2023, Prime Minister Netanyahu launched a war to eradicate Hamas from Gaza, with two contradictory goals. In addition, there was no clear vision for peace with the Palestinians after the war ended.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s goal was a “complete victory” against Hamas and the return of the hostages. However, a complete military victory against Hamas, even if it were possible, would certainly have meant the death of most, if not all, of the hostages.
Unfortunately, and surprisingly, the Jewish supremacists in Netanyahu’s cabinet, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, are willing to take action against Gaza, even at the cost of Israel being accused of war crimes. It forced them to wage a war of partial destruction, hoping that this would lead to an all-out attack. The forced relocation of Palestinians and Israel’s annexation of parts of the Gaza Strip, hostages, should be cursed. Bibi accompanied Ben Gvir and Smotrich until you forced him to make a choice.
Yes, Hamas is an Islamic fascist organization that has cursed the Palestinian people. But as a movement, it can only be eliminated by other, more moderate Palestinians. Prime Minister Netanyahu was never willing or able to help build an alternative to Hamas, an upgraded and reformed Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. He continued to move troops in and out of Gaza, causing exactly what this column predicted. We created a lasting insurgency similar to the one we created in Iraq before we moved on to a strategy of mopping up, retaining, and building decent alternatives. Have you seen how many Israeli soldiers were recently killed in the Gaza Strip by Iraqi-style IEDs made from Israeli unexploded ordnance?
In his eloquent farewell to Middle East diplomacy, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week: . In fact, we estimate that Hamas has recruited almost as many new fighters as it has lost. That’s a recipe for lasting rebellion and lasting war. ”
U.S. policy must be to ensure that all three steps of this ceasefire agreement are implemented, followed by a real diplomatic process toward a broader solution. I believe that only a reformed and strengthened Palestinian Authority can replace Hamas in Gaza, but that it will require the support of international or Arab forces invited by the Palestinian Authority to assist with security and reconstruction. I agree with strategist Giddy Grinstein.
In that case, the Gaza Strip should be divided into Area A and Area B, with a four-year transition period, similar to the West Bank under the Oslo Accords. 80% will be Area A (under international military/Palestinian control) and 20% (basically the border) will remain under Israeli military control until Israel’s security is ensured.
After a four-year transition period, the two countries will agree to establish a permanent status in coordination with the West Bank, but hopefully by then the Palestinian Authority will be freed from corruption like former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. It will be led by a system builder without any. This approach would lock in the US-Saudi-Israel-Palestinian security arrangement.
Meanwhile, Lebanon has a huge opportunity to truly end its civil war and rebuild its country. The new president, Joseph Aoun, and the newly appointed prime minister, Nawaf Salam, are widely respected moderate Lebanese patriots. That is why so many Lebanese took to the streets to celebrate the inauguration.
In addition to providing economic aid for Lebanon’s reconstruction and military aid to strengthen its military, the most important thing for U.S. diplomats to do is to ensure that a mutual agreement is finally reached between Lebanon and Israel. , to draw national borders recognized by the United Nations.
why? For decades, Hezbollah has justified its weapons possession by saying it was necessary to take back Israeli-occupied territory in southern Lebanon. The whole thing was a sham, including the disputed meters and half-kilometre stretch along the border.
It is crucial for the United States and Israel to deprive Hezbollah of oxygen for border conflicts. But we also say to Lebanese Shiites that America wants them to become equal citizens of the Lebanese state without resorting to armed Hezbollah, and that we want them to become equal citizens of the Lebanese state. We need to make it clear that we intend to support
After speaking with Israeli officials the other day, I realized that Bibi understands that, and by significantly weakening Hezbollah and Iran, he has helped move the possibility that Lebanon and Syria will regain sovereignty and unity. I was convinced. I believe that he is prepared to complete Israel’s withdrawal and establish borders if the Lebanese government sends troops to ensure that Hezbollah cannot reestablish its presence in southern Lebanon. I think so.
(As a side note, Mr. President: Biden’s special negotiator for Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, should be retained for this job. He is widely respected in Lebanon and respected by Hezbollah.)
A stable and pluralistic Lebanon is the best springboard for repairing Syria. In Syria, the United States, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Israel are the driving force behind a coalition to balance the Islamists, whose fighters overthrew Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime. It is necessary to form a kind of contact group among them. and a secular, multifaith Syrian majority.
This is not easy, but you must try. I believe that the new de facto Syrian leader, Ahmad al-Shara, has the potential to become a decent national leader who will unify this country, and we encourage him with both hands. You have to seduce and pressure them to do the right thing. —Even if you fail. The worst thing to do is to wash your hands of Syria or hand it over to Turkey at this critical time.
Finally, when it comes to Iran, Israel retains much of its ability to project power across the region from this horribly corrupt and repressive regime through failed states and proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. It has done the world a huge favor in terms of deprivation. Tehran’s nuclear program.
Its nuclear program and Iran’s malign regional strategy need to be eliminated. I hope that we can do that through peaceful negotiations. Otherwise it must be done dynamically. The more sure you are to threaten the second person, the more likely you are to get the first.
Good luck, Mr. Trump. History is watching you.
