The 2024 elections in India, Turkey, and the United States demonstrate that the liberal political space in democracies is rapidly shrinking.
But despite the enormity of the threat to a secular and inclusive vision of politics, the elections in India and Turkey suggest that the potential for liberal resilience does exist. But the United States has failed the resilience test.
Opposition parties fight back in India
Since 2014, India has become increasingly authoritarian under the leadership of the right-wing Hindu nationalist Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), which nominally heads the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
India’s 2023 and 2024 elections may have allowed the centre-left Indian National Congress (INC), which heads the Indian National Development Alliance (INDIA), to rebel against majoritarian politics in a limited way. It shows three important factors.
First, secure leadership or coherent coalitions across competing political factions.
Second, a distinctly secular narrative with a citizen-friendly stance.
Third, work closely with like-minded groups in civil society.
India’s state-level election results support these claims.
The party surprised the ruling BJP when the leadership, discourse and civil society supported INC in Karnataka (2023) and Telangana (2023). The Congress victory in Telangana was modeled on the victory in Karnataka.
On the other hand, when the Congress lacked a clear secular narrative and was plagued by factionalism, it lost elections that could have had a substantially different outcome.
This was noticeable in Rajasthan (2023), Chhattisgarh (2023), Madhya Pradesh (2023), Haryana (2024) and Maharashtra (2024).
It took time for the Indian bloc to emerge as a coalition of diverse political parties on the eve of parliamentary elections in June 2024.
The dictatorship of the current government appears to have aroused a certain degree of unity within the diverse coalition of opposition parties.
The Indian bloc thus became a rallying point for forces opposed to majoritarianism and in support of social justice.
Civil society organizations played an important role even under adverse conditions.
This political mobilization limited the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA to 240 seats in the 545-member House of Representatives, 32 seats short of a simple majority in the general election.
For the first time since 2014, the BJP needed a coalition partner to form a government.
Given the BJP’s incumbency advantage, this was a favorable outcome for the opposition. The Congress won 99 seats, with 234 MPs from the Indian bloc sitting in opposition seats.
For the first time since 2014, India’s parliament in 2024 looks relatively balanced.
Türkiye’s super-presidential system
Less than a year after its defeat in the 2023 presidential election, Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has scored a rather surprising landslide victory over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling coalition. I got it.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which first came to power in the 2002 general election, has gradually taken control of state institutions over the past two decades.
It eroded the safeguards of democracy and placed the media, civil society, and academia under greater control.
As a result, Turkey’s democracy eroded under Erdogan and was replaced by a super-presidential system in 2018.
Many see President Erdogan’s recent victory over a united opposition candidate in the 2023 presidential election as a watershed that could lead to the strengthening of Turkey’s authoritarian regime.
Contrary to most expectations, the March 2024 elections were a significant upset for the ruling coalition.
The ruling AKP suffered its worst defeat in more than 20 years, being overtaken by the centre-left CHP for the first time.
Despite the collapse of the main opposition coalition after its defeat in 2023, the main opposition party won 37.8 percent to the AKP’s 35.5 percent and controlled 24 of the 81 provinces.
As a result, the CHP now controls six of the seven largest metropolitan municipalities and numerous other municipalities in central Anatolia, including several long-held ruling party-controlled municipalities. Also includes states.
Meanwhile, the pro-Kurdish Democratic Party for Equality (DEM) and the pro-Islamist New Welfare Party won 10 and 2 provinces, respectively, reducing the ruling coalition’s local control.
There are several possible reasons for the ruling coalition’s defeat.
Because the stakes in local elections were low, some pro-government voters strategically voted for opposition parties to protest the worsening economic situation.
After years of high inflation and a weak currency, President Erdoğan turned to orthodox economic policies, placing the burden of controlling inflation on middle-class and poor voters in big cities.
Despite the government’s poor economic situation, the CHP’s strong performance at the municipal level attracted higher levels of public support.
In Istanbul and Ankara, ruled by the CHP since 2019, local governments provided effective services and generous social assistance to voters.
The worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza also angered some devout Muslim voters, who switched support to the New Welfare Party to punish the government’s refusal to cut trade ties with Israel.
Majoritarianism wins in America
However, the United States failed the 2024 resilience test.
Donald Trump’s re-election as president in 2024 is widely seen as a low point for American democracy.
By April 2024, it was well known that President Biden’s appeal to the public had reached a nadir. It took a long time for Democrats to choose Kamala Harris to succeed Biden.
Harris’ progressive policies to attract the poor also failed to gain traction, nor did it appear that the Democratic Party was becoming more racially inclusive.
Under these circumstances, majoritarianism won out in the 2024 presidential election, with more black and Latino voters supporting Trump than Harris than ever before.
the threat remains
Majority leaders are adept at creating a convenient myth that the majority community is threatened by the minority. This is a political ploy to gain majority vote.
Majoritarianism poses a threat to rich, middle-income, and low-income countries alike.
Lessons from India, Turkey, and the United States suggest that authoritarianization has nothing to do with a country’s per capita income. Even adopting a softer version of majoritarian nationalism is likely to defeat the liberal cause in the long run.
We can no longer live with the belief that capitalist society produces democracy. Even today’s industrialized countries cannot escape the threat of majoritarianism.
Rahul Mukherji is Professor and Professor of Contemporary South Asian Politics at the Institute of South Asian Studies at Heidelberg University in Heidelberg. Berg Esen is an associate professor of political science at Sabancı University in Istanbul.
Jay Shankar Prasad, a doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science, Institute of South Asian Studies, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, helped write this article.
Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.
