FORT WORTH, Texas — Sen. John Cornyn is spending the endgame of the primary telling Texas Republicans that losing his race against state Attorney General Ken Paxton will mean Republican candidates at the top and bottom of the November ballot will pay a high price.
Cornyn addressed the statewide election Wednesday afternoon at the Fort Worth Police Association, telling supporters, “If Ken Paxton is the candidate, there’s a good chance we’ll see a massacre in Texas and elect the first Democrat since 1994.”
“I know people think Texas is a red state and will always be a red state, but nominating a flawed person with political baggage like Ken Paxton puts all of that at risk,” Cornyn said. “You’re putting your United States Senate seat at risk. You’re putting President Trump’s policy of restarting two-year terms at risk, and you’re putting everyone else on the ballot in the Senate race and below.”
The potential impact on other Republicans on the ballot is a key part of Cornyn’s closing message ahead of the March 3 primary against Paxton and Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt. There are three leading candidates vying for the Republican Senate nomination, and it is unlikely that any of them will receive a majority of votes, and the primary election is expected to head to a runoff on May 26th.
He delivered the same message Tuesday to dozens of supporters at Austin’s Theranos Cocina y Cantina, saying Paxton’s nomination would lead to “Election Day carnage” for Republicans.
“Republicans and members of Congress are going to pay the price of having the albatross of a corrupt attorney general hanging around their necks,” Cornyn said, alluding to Paxton’s controversies, including his divorce and bribery charges that led to his impeachment by the state House of Representatives in 2023. The state Senate ultimately acquitted him.
Meanwhile, Paxton suggests it could energize core Trump supporters who were less likely to vote when Trump wasn’t on the ballot.
“Ensuring that America First voters with low approval ratings are motivated to go to the polls in November is critical to Republican success in 2026, and John Cornyn is the worst person to have done it in Texas,” Paxton said in a Feb. 9 statement.
Paxton pointed to a University of Houston Hobby School School of Public Affairs poll that examined a hypothetical general election matchup and found that both Cornyn and Paxton had a slight lead over the Democrat, but within the poll’s margin of error. The poll also found that Republican voters view Paxton more favorably than Cornyn.
Paxton’s adviser Nick Maddux said in a statement that Texans see Paxton as “a conservative fighter who will always fight for us and our freedoms, even as the left tries to tear him down. Texans know that John Cornyn, like any career politician, will betray Texas by speaking hard on the campaign trail, then doing the exact opposite in D.C. and repeatedly pushing for gun control and amnesty.”
Asked Tuesday about Paxton’s rare ability to win over Trump voters, Cornyn said Paxton is “living in a fantasy” and would be a “heavy burden” on other Republican candidates. Mr. Cornyn said independents, Democrats and “many Republicans” would not vote for Mr. Paxton “because of his blatant history of corruption.”
“So I understand that he’s trying to put the best spin on his argument, but that’s simply not true,” Cornyn continued.
Mr. Cornyn was talking about voters like Mike Lopez, 60, a small business owner who cast a primary vote for Mr. Cornyn in Austin on Tuesday. Lopez, who identifies as an independent, said he would not support Paxton if he were the Republican candidate in November, but would consider supporting state Rep. James Talarico if he beats Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary.
“He’s just a con artist,” Lopez said of Paxton. “That’s it. I mean, he’s just a basic criminal who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. So that doesn’t represent being a Republican or being a conservative.”
Mr. Cornyn also noted that Mr. Trump is particularly focused on retaining control of the House and winning the five House seats in Texas, which were retaken in favor of Republicans last year. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to gain a majority in the House.
“We know they’re important to President Trump because he talks about them all the time,” Cornyn said of the Texas congressional districts. “He doesn’t want to lose the House majority because, number one, we want to continue to pass good, solid legislation and pass President Trump’s agenda. But he doesn’t want to be impeached a third time. That’s what will happen if Democrats take over.”
This argument has so far failed to persuade Trump to jump into the race. Trump has remained neutral in the primary, despite months of pressure from Cornyn and Senate Republican leaders to support Cornyn for a fourth term.
“We haven’t made a decision on that race yet. We still have a ways to go,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One this week. He went on to say that Cornyn is a “good person.”
“I like all three. In fact, I like all three. These are the toughest races. They all support me. They’re all good and I’m supposed to pick one. So we’ll see what happens. But I support all three,” Trump said.
A person familiar with Mr. Trump’s thinking on the campaign said it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would endorse a candidate in the primary runoff. The person said Trump bases his support decisions on many factors, including likelihood of winning, personal ties to candidates, loyalty and intuition, but in this case, Trump’s instincts are off and he tends to distance himself from the race.
It’s also not yet clear whether Mr. Cornyn’s lawsuit will be enough to secure a strong showing on March 3 or a runoff election in May.
This is not the first time in recent years that Cornyn has raised the possibility of running for office ahead of a major election. He was also one of several prominent Republicans to question Trump’s electability ahead of the 2024 election.
“I think the era of President Trump is behind us, and I think the most important thing to me is that we have a candidate who can actually win,” Cornyn said in 2023.
Asked Wednesday whether he believed Paxton’s claims that he was unelectable resonated with Republican primary voters who supported Trump despite concerns about his electability, Cornyn told NBC News after the Fort Worth event.
“What I’m trying to say is this is really not just about me,” he added. “This is about the Republican Party and President Trump’s second term agenda. I don’t think it’s a good idea to lose a state and a Senate seat as dependent as Texas, and I’m sure the president would agree.”
