Scientists at Google’s AI research facility DeepMind have created a new AI weather prediction model named GenCast. In a study published in Nature, the company says its model provides faster and more accurate predictions up to 15 days in advance. Google Deepmind explains more about the features of this new model in a blog entry. Here are the details:
How does it work?
The model goes beyond existing top-of-the-line systems and employs probabilistic ensemble forecasting to predict a variety of potential weather outcomes, providing a broader view of future conditions.
The researchers are also making GenCast’s code, weights, and predictions publicly available to support the broader weather forecasting community. This updated model could be especially important as climate change creates more severe weather events and reliable forecasts are more important than ever.
In contrast to previous models that provide a single “best guess,” GenCast can provide a large number of potential weather forecasts, just as it has 50 individual forecasts. You can. This helps you understand how the weather changes and what different events occur.
GenCast employs a unique AI that excels in producing various works such as images, videos, and music. However, rather than generating those items, GenCast generates different weather scenarios. This is similar to how AI envisions different possibilities for how the weather will develop.
How accurate?
To tell GenCast about this, the researchers presented it with 40 years of weather information, including temperature, wind speed, and air pressure on objects. This allows GenCast to understand everything about how weather works on a global scale.
To evaluate the effectiveness of GenCast, the researchers evaluated it using 2019 weather data. They compared the model to the major weather prediction systems currently in use, and in most cases, GenCast outperformed it in predicting the weather.
The researchers looked at a variety of weather factors, including temperature and wind, and found that GenCast was more accurate in almost all cases, especially when forecasting several days in advance.
advanced features
GenCast is also great at recognizing when the weather is uncertain. Similar to an uncertain weather forecast about rain, the model responds with “maybe” rather than providing inaccurate information.
The biggest advantage is that GenCast works at incredible speeds. Predict the weather for 15 days in just 8 minutes. Traditional weather forecasting methods typically take many hours.
