Goldman Sachs analysts have a brent oil price of $ 93 if sanctions have been fully reduced in oil exports from Iran and Russia by summing up 1 million barrels (BPD) per day. We predict that it can increase rapidly. In a memo shared by X’s Zerohedge, banks outlined a scenario that Iran faced a permanent supply confusion, Russia experienced temporary recessions, and tightened the global crude oil market. Traders are monitoring policy shifts that can worsen pressure, as geopolitical tensions are already applying pressure to the supply chain.
Goldman: “Brent is the possibility that the approved supply will be 1MB/D for Iran, and Russia’s 1MB/D will temporarily increase to $ 93/BBL. It is estimated. “
-Zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 31, 2025
On the other hand, petroleum prices fell for two consecutive weeks, and this week ended about $ 2 per barrel one week ago. The deadline for the punishment of Donald Trump’s Canada and Mexico on February 1 is approaching the deadline for the declining tariff, which may end quickly.
One of the potential spanas of the $ 93 scenario of the goldman barrel is OPEC production plan. This faces the recently set up pressure from the US President. Ambitious in Ukraine. However, Standard Charterer feels that the President is likely to succeed in trying to shake a lower oil price as a geopolitical operation due to the low crude oil prices in the US oil industry.
According to STANCHART, Opec+is unlikely to adjust the current production plan, so the rise will be delayed until April this year, and the rewind period will be extended until the end of next year to prevent excess supply in the market.
In October, Goldman Sachs estimated that Brent’s price forecast would reach $ 10 to $ 20 per barrel this year due to the potential turmoil of Iran’s production.
Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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