The Economic Expert Survey is a quarterly survey conducted by Germany’s ifo Institute for Economic Research and the Swiss Institute for Economic Policy Research.
The Q4 2024 Survey of Economists predicts global inflation in 2025 at 3.9 percent. The average expected inflation rate in 2026 is 3.5 percent, making the global forecast 0.4 percentage points (pp) lower than the 2025 forecast. Inflation expectations through 2028 were 3.5%, down slightly compared to the previous quarter (inflation expectations through 2028 were 3.6%). cent).
The average expected inflation rate in 2026 is 3.5%, making the global forecast 0.4 percentage points (pp) lower than the 2025 forecast. In the longer term through 2028, inflation expectations are also 3.5%. This represents a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter (3.6%). Therefore, long-term inflation expectations are also stagnant, the Ifo Institute said in a press release.
The study predicts that inflation in 2025 will be the lowest in Western Europe (2.1%). Expectations are slightly higher in North America, Oceania and Northern Europe (2.6-2.7%). Expectations in the rest of Europe (Southern Europe: 3.5%, Eastern Europe: 7.5%) remain above central banks’ inflation targets.
Within Asia, considerable heterogeneity exists between sub-regions. Expectations in East Asia (2.9%) and Southeast Asia (3.2%) are only slightly higher relative to the inflation target, while expectations are significantly higher in West Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia (respectively). 7.3, 7.4, 11.1%). All other African regions except Southern Africa (4.4%) expect short-term inflation to be well above average (West Africa: 10.8%, Central Africa: 13.5%, East Africa: 27.6%, North Africa: 37.2%). cent).
The survey predicts that by 2028, inflation rates in Western Europe (2.0%), Northern Europe (2.5%), and Oceania (2.5%) will almost return to the 2% inflation rate targeted by many central banks, or I expect it to get closer. However, expectations are higher in some sub-regions than in the previous quarter. For example, higher long-term inflation expectations were recorded in Southern Europe (2.7 percent), North America (2.9 percent), Eastern Europe (4.8 percent), East Asia (3.0 percent), and South Asia (8.1 percent). , Southern Africa (3.8%). The highest long-term inflation rates are expected to be in Central Africa (17%) and East Africa (44%).
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (Singapore)
