The EU’s new political language has officially been launched. 2025 is expected to be a particularly turbulent year, but Europe has a unique opportunity to confront multiple challenges. Some of them in particular will demonstrate that accelerating a clean transition is a viable path towards lasting stability, security and cohesion.
This orientation briefing sets the stage for what tests will drive EU politics in 2025 and therefore potentially have the biggest impact on climate action. We also analyze how national, EU level and international politics shape this situation.
Four challenges the EU will face in 2025
The EU has turned the political and institutional page. Executives will roll up their sleeves and begin announcing plans and actions for the “first 100 days.” Despite the hostile political climate, all parties may be able to agree on one point. It means that in 2025 Europe faces a series of challenges that will determine its course and place in the world for years to come.
1. Find investments for future prosperity
Mario Draghi has made it clear that the EU will need an additional 800 billion euros a year to be competitive. The many investment needs are a potential thread that connects all of Europe’s strategic priorities, and this is also reflected in President von der Leyen’s call for the establishment of an “Investment Commission”. Addressing these needs requires a coherent investment strategy and a challenge to the status quo in several politically difficult areas.
Hawkish EU leaders will need to recognize the need for a larger and more agile EU wallet. Furthermore, the establishment of new and existing funds, upcoming state aid reforms and the European Investment Bank will be important in channeling funds. To bring the European Capital Markets Union together, Member States will need to overcome fragmentation and strengthen more centralized supervisory institutions, while at the same time working to align their capital markets with Europe’s transition strategy.
2. Simplify regulation without sacrificing integrity
Von der Leyen has made “reducing administrative burdens and simplifying legislation” a priority for the new team. Although commissioners are adamant that this “does not mean deregulation”, some industry and political figures are calling for key Green Deal measures to be reversed or postponed.
Other industry players are concerned that reopening the bill risks undermining the effectiveness of the policy and creating uncertainty, while also forcing them to restart adaptation to Green Deal rules. There is.
Policymakers must remain vigilant and distinguish between legitimate business concerns and environmentally regressive agendas. Increasing consistency between EU legislation, industry-specific standards, tackling over-compliance and increasing digitalization can all help overcome complexity without reducing content.
3. Strengthening cooperation with the EU to carve its own path
Draghi said Europe faces the choice of “withdrawal, paralysis, or integration.” Although the political conditions for further European cooperation are not ideal, the case for values is stronger than ever. The 2024 EU and national elections saw the rise of eurosceptic and nationalist groups in several key countries, further fragmenting the EU. Meanwhile, the incoming Trump administration will test the unity of the EU.
However, the EU’s joint approach has significant benefits for the European economy and its global standing. For example, maintaining a clean transition policy will lead to structurally cheaper and more secure energy. Fundamental building blocks such as integrated infrastructure planning for grid expansion, electrification, hydrogen utilization and gas phase-down planning will depend on pan-European buy-in, leveraging the unique strengths of member states and regions.
4. Overcoming increased global competition and security concerns while enabling international cooperation
Driven by geopolitical changes and security concerns, the EU has established a “de-risking” strategy to foster and protect domestic industry. At the same time, President-elect Trump’s pledge to impose steep tariffs on all imports poses new risks to the EU economy. Europe’s ability to build strategic autonomy while managing economically important trade relations will be one of the most difficult issues of the new term.
Moving too far in the direction of protectionist measures could raise costs, delay a clean transition, lead to the perception that the EU is lagging behind on climate action and antagonize trading partners. A promising path lies in the European Commission’s plans for a new Clean Trade and Investment Partnership and plans to strengthen economic ties with emerging and developing markets. A clean transition partnership could help rebuild trust with the Global South while addressing the EU’s concerns about over-reliance on critical imports from China. It can also foster cooperation and ambition towards COP30, which will be held in Brazil.
Read the full overview to learn more about the four tests.
Political outlook and key moments in 2025
In 2025, the EU will prove its ability to withstand these challenges amid a complex mix of domestic politics, EU-level decisions and international dynamics. Here we look at some of the key political junctures that precede these different levels of governance.
International dynamics: The fraying of the international order
2025 begins as third year of war in Ukraine and second year of war in Gaza, with EU urged to continue to focus on security and foreign policy in an increasingly tense geopolitical situation. EU leaders will also pay close attention to the end of Syria’s al-Assad regime and the prospects for stability in the region.
president-Elected Trump’s return suggests the possibility of trade friction, unstable NATO and an uncertain end ukraine war. Anticipating rapid and fundamental policy changes – influence forums like G7, G20 and COP30 – These concerns will be amplified and we will leave the EU. and member states Officials are preparing for the unexpected.
Throughout 2025, the EU will have the opportunity to rebuild momentum and confidence in global climate action on the Road to COP30 in Brazil. timely 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in line with the upcoming 2040 climate goalsactively engage with China and the G20 countries. The EU’s influence is influenced by its ability to cooperate with the EU is emerging Economies and developing countries will jointly build mutually beneficial clean trade and investment partnerships.
EU level: Commission, Council and Parliament all looking to make a mark
Poles and Danes PPermanent presence would facilitate political debate and prepare member states to agree on important choices. Polish Presidential Palace Prioritize all forms of security, and Shape the direction of future policy discussions through Board conclusions and informal events. The Danish President is expected to focus on: Details of climate change measures being prepared COP30 and will prepare the first Council and European Commission Council discussion on the next EU budget.
new european parliament Arithmetic will also be tested. of Strenafter that The center-right EPP group allows for the construction of an ambivalent majority between the center-left and the far-right. This risk is limit the influence of ambitious on climate change actor And it is hampering the European Commission’s ability to build consensus on future clean transition initiatives. TThe Parliament’s own initiative report outlines the Parliament’s position. probably grab The focus is on the first few months of the year.
National politics: Elections determine the rhythm of the year
With the nationwide implementation of elections and transitions in Member States, impact European climate-related debates. EElections will be held across Europe affect Direction and rhythm at EU level discussioninfluence the level of political polarization and test vulnerability to Russia interference. Divided domestic politics and challenges in delivering the transition on the ground are also likely to influence political discussions at EU level.
Political instability in France and Germany will weaken their traditional leadership in the EU in early 2025. France’s lack of a stable parliamentary majority will make it difficult for both the central government and President Macron. take action Both nationally and at EU level. head of germanys I’m going to vote in February, The new government may not take off in earnest until late spring..
a distracted Franco-German engines also leave space in other countries such as Italy and Spain, Poland and denmark to assume greater leadership. poland and denmarkThe president of the country gives them A unique opportunity to take on a key role. but, Polish presidential election in may And with Denmark’s local elections coming up in November, there is a danger that public attention will shift to domestic issues. Chairman von der Leyen will continue to be a powerful figure. but she capacity Driving change will depend on the committee’s cohesion and ability to broker agreements with national governments and political groups.
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