EU A-TEAM FOR 2025

Welcome to EU politics decoded. by Magnus Lund Nielsen. EU Politics Decoded is your essential guide for staying Latest Brussels bubble and beyond. Subscribe here.

In today’s issue

The right team at the right time:The EU may have taken a strong step towards meeting the challenges that lie ahead in 2025.
This week’s trivia: Venezuela’s majority celebrates its name, the European Parliament gathers signatures for Maduro’s fan letter, and a TikTok debate lasts five hours.

There teeth There is no shortage of hardship Inside the store For the EU in 2025, But the Coalition may have set it up, knowingly or not. correct lineup to Please try it.

Today’s European Council summit could have been done by email, but this is almost the end of the EU year. Brussels has bounced back after June’s elections and has had a particularly busy last six months, but there is little to suggest the pace will slow in the new year.

The inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump will be a pressure test for the EU institutions should he decide to impose tariffs on EU products. The EU’s economic outlook is increasingly bleak, and even German industry is in trouble. Now, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the serious security problems associated with it, are entering their third year.

But in the spirit of Christmas, let us dare to be optimistic on behalf of the EU. Things might just work out after all. If that happens, what will be needed? First, a new cast of major European characters will need to be ready, willing, and most importantly, able to deliver.

Tasks care about (power) gaps.

One such character emerges at a coincidental moment. Poland will take over the Council Presidency from Hungary next January and will chair meetings of EU ministers for the next six months.

In the power vacuum left by Germany and France battling their own domestic demons, other actors are trying to seize the moment. And Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has already shown he is willing to step up. is emerging As a convener on Ukraine issues and as an authoritative voice on the EU’s defense drive.

If opinion polls are any indication, Poles largely support the one-year-old government’s efforts to move the country closer to Brussels, with Tusk leading the party in the country’s presidential election in May. There will be no need to spend a lot of political money supporting candidates. This can limit your bandwidth. more practical At EU level, he leads the priorities of the Presidency, which can be summarized as “general security”.

Mr Tusk himself will not chair the EU meeting, but he will provide an atmosphere for ministers to do so. And having friends in Mr. Tusk could be especially important for Kiev.

One thing to watch for in the second half of next year is that Dane will take over as council president in July. Their presidency, led by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, is likely to involve compromises to broker the EU budget and migration. Frederiksen, like Tusk, appears to be able to fill the gap. She is a frugal woman in recovery and currently Good feeling Co-borrowing and fluent social democrats conservative About migration.

Costa whispers about Orban, Rutte whispers about Trump

It is hard to find much hostility towards new European Council President Antonio Costa. Unlike his predecessor, Portugal’s former prime minister is widely respected by EU leaders and apparently even admired by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.

The warmth between the pair is so well known that rumors surfaced that the two played golf during Costa’s trip to Budapest in October. But Costa’s praise is on record: in an interview with an Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera last month, he He praised Orbán’s approach to the summit.say that “I’ve always seen him take a constructive stance, even when he’s isolated.”

In recent years, overcoming the Hungarian veto has become a major obstacle to a common European foreign policy. It’s always difficult to break unanimity for reasons beyond Hungarian stubbornness, but Costa may be able to alleviate that.

Costa has already set a new and effective tone for the EU summit. In addition to shortening the meeting from two days to one, the conclusions of today’s meeting were also drafted and agreed in advance – something unprecedented since 2012, one EU diplomat told Euractic. Ta. .

Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has replaced Jens Stoltenberg at NATO headquarters on the outskirts of Brussels. The alliance’s new head was selected for the job on the strength of his persuasive powers to President Trump, who has surpassed his qualifications as the leader of one of Europe’s largest economies for more than a decade.

At the 2018 NATO summit, President Trump seriously considered leaving the alliance unless European countries started paying their contributions. It was Rutte who persuaded Trump, according to people familiar with the meeting, with assurances that European defense spending was increasing and the flattery that Trump himself was the main reason behind it. by both.

Dutch appears to be the ideal person to continue the alliance’s efforts to stop Trump. prompted There will undoubtedly be significant cuts in Washington, well above current levels of defense spending.

Karas leads from the east, von der Leyen leads the rest.

Kaja Callas’ term as the EU’s top diplomat got off to a rocky start, with cuts to the EU’s foreign affairs budget inherited from her predecessor prompting pointed questions. But Estonia’s former prime minister brought an authenticity to his role at a time when a Western European would probably not have been able to do so. Placing a Baltic man in charge of foreign affairs pays homage to the Russians who sounded the alarm in parts of the continent long before they were proven right.

It might be 2025 decisive year Because of Russia’s war in Ukraine. If Mr. Rutte is best placed to help manage the U.S. military, Mr. Karas could become an important intermediary in Europe as new exploration takes place on the continent. method This is to ensure that the aid tap to Kyiv continues.

Karas said last night: “Pushing ahead with negotiations too soon will actually be a bad deal for Ukraine. We should not underestimate our own strength.”

But at the center of the EU world once again stands Ursula von der Leyen. Shaped by the turmoil of her first mission, her personality clashes with some of her first commissioners. de facto Leaders didn’t stay at work to make friends. This time, the chairman has strengthened his authority and sits at the head of a team with a reporting department. complicated That the only clear job description is her own.

Whether you like her policies or not, the challenges of 2025 may require a decisive head of the EU executive. Just a few weeks ago, Ms. von der Leyen fought off French opponents. close No trade deal was signed between the EU and Mercosur, but France and its leaders otherwise engaged.

None of the above provides a definitive answer to the age-old question: “Who do you call when you want to talk to Europe?” But in 2025, a variety of experienced and complementary leaders will be at the finish line, so it probably won’t matter all that much who replaces them.

This week’s trivia:

Venezuelan majority celebrates victory: This week, it was the European Parliament’s award of the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought that shed light on an otherwise slow-moving plenary session. In October, the right wing will have a majority in parliament. I voted This year’s award will go to the Venezuelan opposition.

For the uninitiated, the majority, which stretches from the center-right EPP to the far-right Europatriots, It was then called the Venezuelan majority. – The EPP will no doubt rely on this bill at some point in the new year to hold a more meaningful vote, much to the chagrin of its historic centrist allies.

Fico MPs circulate Maduro’s fan mail: A majority of parliament welcomed opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia’s visit to Strasbourg, but not everyone was sympathetic to his cause. Email sent to all MPs and viewed by Euractiv, SMER member in Slovakia Jubosh Braha A letter was circulated to Venezuela’s current president, Nicolás Maduro. Blaha said the EU was “copying the United States’ imperialist attitude toward Venezuela” and that Congress “It looks more and more like the Reichstag building from the Nazi era. ”

By the time of this article’s publication, Mr. Blaha’s office had not said how many members had signed the letter. Until it was suspended last year, Prime Minister Robert Fico’s SMER was part of parliament’s centre-left S&D group. It seems like forever ago.

Lawmakers clash over TikTok and election integrity: Speaking of eternity, Tuesday’s plenary debate on social media misinformation took up the better part of five hours. a committee was held TikTok investigation In the wake of Romanian presidential election invalidated This comes after foreign actors were accused of promoting support for far-right candidate Karin Georgescu on a Chinese-owned platform. Still, five hours was too long for many lawmakers. The four-term MP told EU Politics Decoded: “I’ve never experienced anything like this before.”

EU Politics Decoded will be closed for the holidays and will return on January 9th. We wish all our readers a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

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