Russia is increasing its domestic production capacity for Iranian-designed Shahid drones in preparation for winter offensive operations against Ukraine, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia began importing Shahid drones from Iran. However, by early 2023, Moscow and Tehran signed a USD 1.75 billion contract to establish domestic production of these drones within Russia.
ISW’s assessment is based on a CNN report published on December 27, which states that the Shahed production facility in Arabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan will be closed from January 2024 to September 2024. It is estimated that the company has produced 5,760 drones by the end of the month.
This is more than double the number of drones produced at the facility in 2023, indicating rapid expansion of production capacity.
Satellite images also revealed that Russian authorities recently expanded the Alabuga facility, adding two new buildings and installing anti-drone mesh cages on some structures to secure the site. .
Citing leaked documents from the facility, the report states that Alabuga is Russia’s main production site for Shahed drones and has already fulfilled its promise to deliver 6,000 drones to the Russian military by September 2025. We have confirmed that there are.
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Ukrainian defense sources also told CNN that the facility will begin producing low-tech “decoy” drones in the summer of 2024.
These decoys are designed to mimic the Shahed drones, which are used by the Russian military to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense systems. Decoy drones are much cheaper to manufacture, about 10 times cheaper than armed Shahed drones.
Russia plans to produce 10,000 of these decoy drones by the end of 2024, nearly double the number of Shahed attack drones produced in the first nine months of 2024. Ukrainian officials added that these decoys are a key part of and support Russia’s strategy. The aim is to saturate and confuse Ukraine’s air defense system.
Ukrainian air defense volunteers have revealed that it is virtually impossible to distinguish real Shahed drones from decoys on radar, as many of the incoming drones appear to be unarmed.
One volunteer estimated that of the 150 drones Russia launched overnight, only 20 to 30 were real Shaheds, the rest were decoys.
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In addition to boosting domestic drone production, Russia has built a new railway station near the Arabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ), establishing a direct rail link between Russia and China.
Ukrainian intelligence officials said the new rail connection could be used to transport essential parts for drone production from China to Russia.
A total of 34 Chinese companies reportedly “collaborated” with the Alabuga facility between September 2023 and June 2024, with contracts worth around 700 million yuan, or more than 8 billion rubles (US$96 million). concluded.
These contracts included the supply of parts, materials, and production equipment critical to UAV manufacturing. Notably, one of these companies also provided jamming equipment designed to protect the Alabuga facility from potential drone attacks.
However, the Chinese government maintains that it has not directly supplied lethal weapons to either side in the Ukraine war.
Despite China’s denials, it has been widely documented that Russian drones are equipped with Chinese-made electronics. The United States also imposed sanctions on two Chinese companies believed to be directly involved in the development and production of long-range attack drones for Russia.
Additionally, dozens of other Chinese companies have been sanctioned for supplying dual-use goods and parts that can be reused for military applications, including drones.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has stepped up efforts to target Russian facilities involved in the production and maintenance of Iranian-designed drones.
On December 28, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported A Storm Shadow airborne cruise missile was used to successfully attack the Shahed kamikaze drone maintenance facility in Russia’s Oryol region.
The attack damaged facilities used to store, maintain and repair Shahed drones. The facility was reportedly housed in a protected concrete structure and was not fully protected from missile attacks.
Ukraine’s General Staff claimed that the operation significantly reduced Russia’s ability to use attack drones to attack Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. According to According to information from the Russian telegram channel ASTRA, at least three Storm Shadow cruise missiles hit targets in Oryol.
Prior to this, on December 23, Ukrainian military intelligence claimed A fire has reportedly destroyed a warehouse storing parts for the Iranian-designed Shahed drone at Russia’s Arabga facility in Tatarstan. The estimated damage caused by the fire was approximately US$16 million.
