The relationship between Canada and the United States is exposed to serious pressure -and there are no commentators -not impossible, but a solution.
What happens if Canada joins the European Union?
If President Donald Trump doesn’t want to be the “51st state”, Stanley Pignal, an economist columnist, even before the Canadians threaten Canadian in “economic powers”, is a national switching team. I made my idea emerged.
“After all, there is a possibility that both Europe and Canada may be in the alliance market,” he wrote.
Following the Pignal column in early January, a slight gust of online excitement continued. Former Spokesman, the Canadian Embassy in Paris, supported this idea, as one of the British parent EU movement was so. Even the former German Minister of Foreign Affairs seemed to be on board.
“Joke, rants, real suggestions? It’s hard to tell,” read one column of Montreal Daily La Press. “(But), the reconciliation with Europe is not meaningless because the US President is now completely hostile to Canada.”
But does it really happen?
Is it possible to participate in the EU?
Article 49 of the European Union Treaty says, “It is committed to respecting and promoting human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, and respect for human rights, including the rights of minority. Open the European membership.
What you do not do is define Europe.
“The one that makes up the European country is left for political decision -making,” said Dimitorious Argulouris, a researcher at the European Research Institute at Libre de Bruxel University in Belgium.
Non -European countries tried to participate only once before. In 1987, Morocco was rejected on the grounds that it was not a “European country.”
But Canada may be different. In his column, Pignal depends on the idea that Canadians are “honorary Europeans” for “shared value.”
They say that Canadians generally support gun control, oppose the death penalty, and oppose powerful welfare nations that regulate the free market like Europeans.
The Canadian political and legal institutions are modeled on European precedents, and more than half of Canadians are identified as their ancestor Europeans.
Also, there may be some benefits on both sides for closer bonds. As PiGnal suggests, Canada was able to provide the EU access to the continental reserves on the continent, such as rare earth minerals and fossil fuels.
Canada, on the other hand, can benefit from access to large and skilled labor markets in Europe, reducing the dependence on the United States and its unstable politics.
“Ottawa must be prepared for a world with low Washington,” said the Brussels EU Think Tank, Martens Center’s visiting fellows, Teonona Lavelella Shviri. “Strengthening involvement with Europe is not just a strategic but essential.”
Does it actually happen?
It is legally possible and has some advantages -but is it actually possible?
Don’t stop.
“It will not happen,” said Steven Blockman, a senior fellow of Brussels in Europe.
The European Union already has a long waiting list. Ten candidates, including some of Bosnia Herzegovina, who have been waiting for decades.
“Think about optical systems,” said Maria Garcia, a senior lecturer of Bath University in the United Kingdom. “If the candidate is very late … can you really open it in these eastern countries in Europe?”
A recent Martens Center survey found that only 38 % of the EU residents wanted more members. More than 80 % replied that it should come from Europe.
As Europe adds more members, it becomes difficult to find an agreement between them. These decisions are made by consensus, along with policies related to security and immigrants that are difficult to handle.
Louvensaiotti, the director of the Jammonet European Union Center of Excellence at Dalhade University in Halifax, states: “So, I imagine a further expansion beyond the people who are already lined up -I don’t see enough energy to achieve that goal or start processing.”
More cooperation?
According to Zaotti, it was “advanced cooperation” than Canada’s complete membership.
According to Michael Emerson, a former EU ambassador of Brussels in European Policy Research, it can be “political, economic, cultural, security: the maximum deepening relationship in all accounts” 。
Or, the EU can create a completely new alliance.
“Without the United States, you can imagine a loose multi -country group with the same aspirations,” says Emerson. “After that, all democratic Europe and the rest of other non -OECDs may develop a collective diplomatic stance by claiming the enlightened west” our “model. 。 “
The EU already has the ability to establish this kind of relationship. With the concept of “European districts”, we were able to conclude a resource sharing partnership between Armenia and Tunisia, which exceeds typical trade agreements.
Some states, such as Norway, are not members of the EU, but are members of the European economic zone, which is a free trade area. Others are completely members, but they are not a part of the Schengen contract that allows visa -free travels, or the euro area that shares the currency and the central bank.
Canada has already participated in the Horizo N EUROPE, a research subsidy program funded by more than $ 140 billion, along with other non -European states, such as New Zealand.
“This is a new chapter in the relationship with the EU,” said Canadian Minister of Science François Phillipan, when he signed a contract last year.
Politicians have touched on topics such as water bomber, AI, and environment, which involve whirlwind 24 hours in New Fundland and Labrador, but politicians have the most local profits on hydrogen and minerals. I claim that it will bring it. The CBC Peter Cowan will be explained.
Meanwhile, the EU President Ulsla von del Rayen did not engrave the European profits. “This is the only country in the Western Hemisphere with all raw materials required for lithium batteries,” Canada said. “So this is a perfect match.”
In this way, at least European leaders seem to be open to expand Europe’s definition. As Blockman says, we have created a “European onion instead of the European Union”.
“If there is a change in the EU thinking, it will deepen the (these) strategic partnerships, rather than reconsider the EU as an unlimited alliance,” said Lavrelashvili.
You don’t choose your friend
Of course, Garcia said, “It will be very difficult for Canada … it would be very difficult to separate yourself from the United States,” Garcia said.
The biggest trading partner cannot be replaced overnight. Also, defending the territory of Canada (or Europe) is not easy without US support.
“Europe is not a complete alternative to the United States,” Lavrelashvili said.
This is when Canadians want an alternative.
Robert Finbo, Deputy Director of Dalhade’s Jean Monet Center, stated that Canadian states rarely agree to the EU priority, such as climate and agricultural policy.
Meanwhile, a Canadian company said, “It is always ready for profitability (the United States) and rarely take alternative partners seriously.”
There is also the risk that the movement to deepen relationships with Europe can cause more American attacks.
“The EU will increase the sense of being an enemy, enemy, and not an ally,” said Argyroulis. “Imagine the sense of people who are obsessed with border management and recognize that they may share the border with the European Union.”
There are another problem. If Canada was looking for in Europe to escape the politics of Trump Style, it may be a wrong tree.
In the second half of this month, elections will be held in Germany. This is a major state of the EU member, where the alternative to the far right Elon Musk for the German (AFD) party has risen in a poll.
Germans have joined only in Italy, Austria, Belgium, Czech, Hungary, Finland, Poland, Nolway, the Netherlands, and French voters, for the past few years, political support or major power to government trumpasty politicians I have given a job.
“Canada is no longer a matter of course, and it’s not a matter of course,” said Lavrelashvili.
What we can say is that Canadians and Europe may be valuable, but in this new political era, Europe and Trump may still share more value.
