CShould Germany follow Austria’s path? Could far-right parties be invited to form a government? What was once considered impossible and then revised down as impossible is now possible. There are two scenarios in which this can occur.
Fast forward to February 23rd, the day of the German general election and the following hypothetical. Germany’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU) has around 30% support in current opinion polls and will win fairly easily. The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second place with an astonishing 20% to 25% of the vote. Nevertheless, it has been excluded from coalition negotiations thanks to a “firewall” put in place years ago by mainstream parties to prevent extreme grouping.
Friedrich Merz, CDU leader and likely next chancellor, will need to start talks with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the Green Party. However, both centre-left parties are expected to struggle, with their vote share dropping to the mid-teens.
Coalition negotiations in Germany have traditionally been held in an atmosphere of solemnity and civility. Union was one of the cornerstones of the postwar federal republic. These are built into the system at every level and require consensus, compromise and goodwill.
That is almost gone now. The thoughtful civility of German politics, which some outsiders had mistakenly dismissed as insensitivity, has been wiped out by the near-panic created by a surge of populism and the rise of the far right. The Leave Coalition, known as the “traffic light” because of the colors of the three parties involved, collapsed painfully.
There have certainly been debates in previous governments, but none as open or acrimonious as the one between Chancellor Scholz, Free Market Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) Finance Minister Christian Lindner, and the Green Party’s Economics Minister. Ta. Robert Habeck. By the end, the main characters could barely stand being in the same room with each other.
That resentment carried over into the beginning of the election campaign. Mainstream parties are highlighting their differences on a range of issues, from borrowing and spending to climate and welfare payments. The CDU and SPD are each trying to appear tougher than the other on immigration.
fair enough. That is what political parties should do in election campaigns. However, what is different this time is the tone. Some key players have employed tactics unusual in political culture, including personal attacks and exaggerated claims against each other. These parties know that they need to work together in coalition to keep out the AfD in particular, but this new climate of accusations will make that difficult.
This is exactly what happened in Austria. The centre-right, center-liberal and centre-left parties have pledged to build an alliance no matter what happens. Talks between the two sides broke down on January 4th. They failed based on narcissism over small differences.
Faced with a political crisis, the president (a Green Party member with excellent democratic credentials) was forced to turn to Herbert Kickle, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ). This person is a person who plays the role of chancellor, borrowing Hitler’s terminology. , Volkskanzler attempts to form a coalition with mainstream conservatives. As these negotiations continue, Austria could soon see its first far-right government since World War II.
There is therefore great pressure on Germany’s political parties to prevent such a disaster from occurring, and my impression from speaking with mainstream party strategists is that they are well-alarmed and emboldened by developments in Austria. It means that they are trying to unite.
This is where long-term scenarios become important. It is very likely that electoral calculations will require Merz to bring both the SPD and the Greens into government. Let’s assume that the negotiations go smoothly, that the ministries are divided without discomfort, and that a coalition agreement is reached. All’s well that ends well, except…
Assuming that Mr. Lindner’s ailing FDP cannot achieve the minimum 5% entry into the Bundestag (a criterion originally designed to keep extremists out), the following will happen: All mainstream parties will be in power. However, the excluded populist party (AfD) and, perhaps, the smaller far-left and far-right blocs, the Sala-Wagenknecht Union (BSW), will make up the entire opposition.
Considering how quickly the pendulum swings against the ruling party in current politics, it is not far-fetched to conclude that the AfD could be at the top in four to five years when the next general election is held. .
As the last six months in the UK have shown, it doesn’t take long for a government, even one with a majority, to lose support. Whether the public’s dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer’s Labor government is real or fabricated, whether it is reversible or not, there is a clear path forward for a reformed Britain to come to power at the next election. The same applies throughout Europe. Currently, there is ample opportunity for opposition parties to soar in popularity in one election term, and for the ruling party to collapse as it grapples with deep-rooted problems that require two or more terms to fix.
Back to Austria: In the 2019 general election, the FPÖ, a party founded by former Nazis in the 1950s, was in a similar position to the current AfD, trailing by a wide margin to the centre-right. The most recent elections held in September saw the FPÖ achieve an unprecedented victory.
Adding to this growing uncertainty is a persistent suspicion that Germany’s highly accurate opinion polls are underestimating the AfD’s position. Approval ratings have risen several points since late November, when Scholz toppled his country’s government and called for early elections, but they are likely to fall even further in light of the riots sparked by the terrorist attack on Magdeburg’s Christmas market. It seems surprising that it has not increased. Or that this is not reflected in the polling agencies.
In any case, the AfD has become part of the political furniture. AfD’s prime ministerial candidate Alice Weidel not only appears on a chat show hosted by Elon Musk, but also highlights how the party has become increasingly integrated into much of civic life at the local level, particularly in the former German Democratic Republic. It was shown in the news.
Populists won’t go away. The post-election challenge for Merz and others will be to form a government that works cohesively and quickly addresses Germany’s economic and social challenges. If it fails, what was until recently considered unconscionable will turn out to be horrifying.
John Kampner is the author of In Search of Berlin, Blair’s War and Why the Germans Do It Better.
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